- Blue Jays president and CEO Paul Beeston, while talking about the future of Roy Halladay with the New York Post.
"We would like to sign him, he is an original Blue Jay and we have never had a pitcher as good as him. But he is not inclined to sign with us."
According to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, free agent Jose Contreras is considering a move to Japan. 
Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune writes that many in the Cubs' front office feel they would be foolish to give up top prospect Starlin Castro to acquire Curtis Granderson from the Tigers. 
While we're on the subject of top
prospects, Dustin Ackley, the No. 2 selection in the 2009 First-Year
Player Draft also made news on Friday. Mariners general manager Jack
Zduriencik said Ackley will begin working out at second base in a move that could become permanent.
Go ahead and wipe that sweat from your brow, Nats fans. It looks like Stephen Strasburg is going to be just fine. 
Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports "tweets" that the Blue Jays and Dodgers have revisited talks on a potential Roy Halladay trade.
While Brown acknowledged that the two sides were talking, he later
cited a source close to the two teams saying that a deal is "highly
unlikely" as of now. 
New Padres general manager Jed Hoyer had a two-hour meet-and-greet with Adrian Gonzalez's agent John Boggs on Friday amid speculation of a possible trade or contract extension for the 27-year-old first baseman. 
He might be. During an interview
with Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, Bobby Jenks was critical of
the White Sox organization and manager Ozzie Guillen for comments about his weight and conditioning.
According to the Miami El Nuevo Herald, Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman has left Athletes Premier International (API) and agent Edwin Mejia in favor of Hendricks Sports Management.
The wheels were set in motion for Josh Johnson to join a sterling class of free agent starters in two years when he and the Marlins reached an impasse in contract talks on Friday.
Agent Matt Sosnick told ESPN.com that he and Johnson were using the four-year, $38 million contract that Zack Greinke signed a year ago as a framework for a new deal with the Marlins. Florida, though, was only willing to guarantee Johnson three years.
If the Marlins could have signed Johnson to the Greinke deal, it would have been a bargain. With a career ERA of 3.40 in 481 1/3 innings, Johnson has a better track record than Greinke did entering 2009. He went 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA and a 191/68 K/BB ratio last season, and that was as a groundball pitcher working in front of a poor infield defense. He allowed just 14 homers. His 3.06 FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) was the seventh-best mark in baseball.
Since they control him for two more years and they expect to contend next season, there's little reason for the Marlins to trade Johnson this winter. Still, they could if bowled over with an offer. If Johnson were a free agent, there's little doubt that he'd land a bigger contract than any available pitcher, John Lackey included.
Barring an extension, Johnson will be a part of 2011-12 free-agent class that could also include Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez and Edwin Jackson.
The Red Sox have discussed Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Mike Gonzalez and Rick Ankiel with agent Scott Boras, the Boston Herald's Michael Silverman reports.
There are no big surprises in the list. Holliday may well have taken over as Boston's top priority following Jason Bay's decision to reject a four-year, $60 million offer. That's not to say that Bay is being ruled out, but the Red Sox could essentially exchange the two and actually pick up a draft pick in the process.
My guess is that the Red Sox would target Beltre, rather than Chone Figgins, to take over at third base in the event of a Mike Lowell deal. Lowell, though, will be very difficult to move.
Gonzalez is another long shot, as teams figure to inquire about him as a closer. The Red Sox might be willing to offer him $5 million per year as a setup man, but that probably won't get the job done.
Ankiel would have made more sense for the Red Sox before the Jeremy Hermida acquisition. Both are left-handed-hitting outfielders with considerable upside. However, it's doubtful that the Red Sox would be willing to pencil in either as a regular.
MLB.com's Carrie Muskat reported Friday that the Blue Jays initiated contact with the Cubs on a potential Roy Halladay deal.
Muskat doesn't believe anything will happen with the Cubs in that regard, but, if true, it's still awfully interesting that the Jays are calling around to discuss Halladay with other teams. That suggests a deal is a lot more likely to take place than if they were just sitting back and waiting for the Yankees, Red Sox and others to come to them.
Chicago wouldn't work for Halladay given the team's needs. The Cubs already employ three starting pitchers making eight figures per year in Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly, and the team is primarily interested in upgrading the offense.
Friday was the last day for teams to add prospects to the 40-man roster in advance of next month's Rule 5 draft. That resulted in plenty of minor moves of interest mostly to geeks like me:
*The Red Sox claimed reliever Robert Manuel off waivers from the Mariners.
Manuel, 26, was the return from the Reds for Wladimir Balentien this summer. He had a 1.25 ERA and a 103/18 K/BB ratio in 86 2/3 innings while spending most of 2008 in Double-A and a 2.88 ERA and a 49/16 K/BB ratio in 65 2/3 innings for two Triple-A teams last season. Still, no one takes him very seriously because he's primarily a high-80s guy and his slider doesn't have a whole lot of break. He deserves an extended chance, but he'll be a long shot to make the Red Sox out of spring training.
*The White Sox added former shortstop Sergio Santos to their 40-man roster.
Working as a reliever for the first time, Santos, the Diamondbacks' first-round pick in 2002, had an 8.16 ERA and a 30/20 K/BB ratio in 28 2/3 innings in four minor league stops last season. He's currently at 6.14 with a 20/10 K/BB ratio in 14 2/3 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Obviously, the White Sox see some promise here. What makes this especially interesting, though, is that, as far as I can tell, Santos is out of options, having used them all up during his time as an infield prospect.
That means he'll have to clear waivers if the White Sox want to send him down at the end of the spring. In theory, they would have had a better chance of keeping him had they declined to protect him now, since if he went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft, he wouldn't have had to go on waivers next spring.
*The Orioles claimed catcher Craig Tatum off waivers from the Reds.
It's hard to believe the Orioles could find room for another standard-issue No. 3 catcher on their 40-man, but not Steve Johnson, the second prospect they acquired along with Josh Bell from the Dodgers for George Sherrill. Johnson went 12-7 with a 3.41 ERA and a 154/62 K/BB ratio in 145 1/3 IP between Single-A and Double-A last season, but he'll be available to everyone in the Rule 5 draft.
Tatum is a fine defender, but he brings absolutely nothing to the table from an offensive standpoint. He's minor league-contract material.
From the Denver Post's Troy Renck comes the news that the Rockies are looking to sign starting second baseman Clint Barmes to a two-year deal with an option for 2012 that would buy out his first year of free agency.
On the surface, it might not seem like a bad idea at all. Having received 500 at-bats for the first time in his career, Barmes delivered 23 homers and 76 RBI last season. He's also, without a doubt, one of the game's best defensive second baseman. Furthermore, he won't be particularly expensive. Barmes made $1.6 million in his first season of arbitration. He's set for a nice raise after putting up such fine power numbers, probably to $3.5 million or so. Another year as a starter would get him up to about $5 million, so the Rockies could potentially save themselves some money if they could sign him for about $7.5 million.
Or they could save themselves far more by trading him and turning second base over to Eric Young Jr.
Barmes' ample power production last season was a nice surprise, but it came with a .245 average and a dreadful .294 OBP. He had a 121/31 K/BB ratio in 550 at-bats. His career OBP is .299. He's also a poor basestealer, getting thrown out on 10 of his 22 attempts last season.
Barmes has also been a huge offensive liability outside of Coors Field throughout his career. A big flyball hitter, he's taken huge advantage of baseball's most spacious outfield to hit .294/.336/.479 at home in his career. On the road, though, he falls all of the way to .222/.262/.351. Last year, he came in at .207/.251/.380 outside of Coors Field.
To put that in perspective, Neifi Perez was a career .267/.297/.375 hitter.
Young is about as different from Barmes as a second baseman can be. He doesn't have any power, but he's turned into a legitimate top-of-the-order threat, which is something the Rockies clearly need. The second-generation major leaguer hit .299/.387/.430 with 58 steals in 72 attempts for Triple-A Colorado Springs last season.
That's not to say he's a sure thing. He was less successful in 57 major league at-bats, coming in at .246/.295/.316. Also, for all of his speed, he's a lesser defender than Barmes. He's made a ton of progress these last two years, but he still might fit best as a major league utilityman.
For that reason, I'd support the idea of the Rockies keeping Barmes around for another year, but it should be with the thought that Young could overtake him and push him into a reserve role at some point. There's no good reason to commit to Barmes for 2011 just yet. He's turning 31 in March, and it's entirely possible that 2008 and '09 will go down as his best years as a major leaguer.
Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News has an update on the Yankees' odds of re-signing Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui:
Multiple sources have indicated that the Yankees would like to bring Johnny Damon back on a two-year deal, but Hideki Matsui's time in pinstripes is likely over as they would prefer to keep the DH slot open for Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Should Damon bolt for a new team, however, Matsui could be brought back on a short-term deal to remain the Bombers' DH, since Cashman has made it clear he no longer considers the World Series MVP to be an outfielder, even on a part-time basis.
Last week Scott Boras suggested that Damon is looking for a four-year deal, but like many things said by the hyperbole-fueled agent that has zero chance of happening. Damon hasn't lost anything offensively and has played at least 140 games in 14 straight seasons, but he turned 36 years old earlier this month and has seen his range in the outfield diminish significantly to go along with his always horrendous throwing arm.
With that said, Feinsand speculates that the Yankees are unlikely to jump heavily into the mix for Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, and Damon is one of the best options among the second-tier outfielders in a weak crop of free agents. If not him and not Matsui, then the Yankees would be left to choose from other aging veterans like Vladimir Guerrero and Jermaine Dye. A two-year deal seems like a worthwhile fit for both sides.
Television website THR.com has the details on Curtis Granderson's attempts to branch out:
MLB All-Star Curtis Granderson is shopping a reality series with production company Authentic Entertainment (Food Network's "Ace of Cakes," Bravo's "Flipping Out"). The Detroit Tigers player has agreed to host a TV and online series titled "Stadium Secrets" where he takes sports fans on an exploration of stadiums. The concept is similar to Authentic's "Cities of the Underworld" on History channel.
In addition to being one of the best all-around outfielders in baseball Granderson is a really smart, interesting guy who has done all sorts of things to interact with fans, so this seems like a natural fit.
Interestingly, there have been rumors of the Tigers possibly shopping him this offseason because of payroll constraints and the Angels are seemingly the team most mentioned in possible trade scenarios. I'm sure that Granderson likes Detroit, but with his new projects perhaps he wouldn't mind a move to California.
Since a big portion of the Baseball Writers Association of America seems to be beyond their past over-reliance on win-loss records to evaluate starting pitchers, can we have a good old-fashioned mulligan on the AL Cy Young vote from 2005?
Bartolo Colon, who won the award that year, had a 3.48 ERA, 157/43 K/BB ratio, and .244 opponents' batting average in 223 innings.
Johan Santana, who did not win the award that year, had a 2.87 ERA, 238/45 K/BB ratio, and .210 opponents' batting average in 232 innings.
Santana was clearly superior in just about every possible way, throwing more innings than Colon with an ERA that was 20 percent lower, racking up 50 percent more strikeouts with the same number of walks, and being 15 percent harder to hit. So how did Colon not only win the award, but win the award with 15 more first-place votes than Santana in a pool of 28 voters?
Colon was 21-8.
Santana was 16-7.
They may not care so much about that now, but the BBWAA were sure obsessed with win-loss records four years ago. The voters saw those 21 wins and ignored everything else, including the fact that Colon pitched for a 95-win team that provided him with 5.6 runs of support per nine innings. Santana pitched for an 83-win team that gave him 4.4 runs of support per nine innings. Colon received 30 percent more run support than Santana overall, including an amazing 10 or more runs eight times in 33 starts.
So yes, the BBWAA deserves credit for recently changing their stance and correctly rewarding the best pitcher in each league with the Cy Young award that's supposed to go to the best pitcher in each league even when they didn't have the best win-loss record. With that said, Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum are lucky that they weren't trying to win the award in 2005 and it remains to be seen if the voters would have been willing to look beyond an otherwise inferior 20-game winner like Colon had there been one this year.
Various rumors have been swirling around today about a potential three-team trade that would supposedly send Kevin Millwood to the Mets, Luis Castillo to the Cubs, and Milton Bradley to the Rangers.
Even at first glance that seems like a "which one of these things doesn't belong" test question, because while the Mets and Cubs would like nothing more than to dump Castillo and Bradley the Rangers have a whole lot less incentive to give up Millwood.
He'll make $12 million in 2010, which is certainly pricey, but that's the same amount the Mets still owe Castillo and Bradley is due $21 million over the next two years.
Millwood is likely to regress in 2010 because his secondary numbers weren't nearly as good as his 3.67 ERA, but the notion of paying a decent mid-rotation starter $12 million for one year is downright appealing compared to Bradley or Castillo for two years.
Not surprisingly, when MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan actually asked a high-ranking Rangers official about the rumored swap, the response was simple: "Not happening."
It's possible that Texas may be open to reuniting with Bradley, who had the best season of his career with the Rangers in 2008, but there's no reason for them to give up anything of value to make that happen and the idea that the Mets could deal a completely unwanted player in Castillo for a decent starting pitcher is awfully wishful thinking.
Omar Vizquel must not have drawn any interest for a possible full- or even part-time job, because FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports that he's close to signing a one-year deal with the White Sox.
Chicago has Alexei Ramirez entrenched at shortstop and plans to make Gordon Beckham an everyday second baseman after playing him at third base as a rookie, so barring injuries Vizquel would be slated for a strict backup job.
He filled that role nicely this season in Texas, serving as a mentor for 20-year-old standout rookie Elvis Andrus while accumulating fewer than 200 plate appearances for the first time in his 21-year career.
Vizquel has never been much of a hitter, but came close to matching his .273/.338/.355 career line by batting .266/.316/.345 in limited action this season and is one of the few shortstops in baseball history to remain an asset defensively in his 40s. Now that he's willing to accept a bench role, he's an ideal backup for a team with young starters up the middle.
For now at least the Rockies have held off on releasing Garrett Atkins, but the veteran third baseman admitted yesterday that he sees zero chance of remaining in Colorado: "I know that I'll be on another team next year and I'm just getting ready to have a good season."
Atkins' performance has declined significantly in each of the past three seasons, leading to a career-worst .226/.308/.342 line in 399 plate appearances while losing his starting job this year.
He earned $7 million for that awful production and would be in line for a similar salary in 2010 via arbitration, so expect the Rockies to non-tender him next month. In the meantime they'll keep him on the 40-man roster in the hopes of finding a taker via trade, but presumably there are no teams dumb enough to actually give up something of value in trade for the right to massively overpay Atkins.
Beyond his awful performance this season, Atkins is a career .252/.324/.411 away from Coors Field, turns 30 years old in a few weeks, and has always graded out poorly on defense at third base. And if for some crazy reason there's still a team out there willing to pay a premium for that, they surely realize that the Rockies have no intention of actually keeping Atkins around long enough to go to arbitration.
Unless some team makes the mistake of trading for him before then, Atkins will be a free agent by December 12.
Keith Law turns in his annual list of the top 50 free agents over at ESPN.com (Insider only). On the heels of his Cy Young ballot yesterday, you won't be surprised to learn that he has Carl Pavano at number one.
OK, he doesn't. I kid Keith because I love Keith. His list, as always, is a postseason must-read.
I'm biased, of course, so I think Matthew's outrageously thorough series breaking down the free agents by position should be the first place you look, but there's lots to chew on in Law's piece, and second opinions are always welcome when it comes to this stuff.
If Tim Lincecum truly regrets anything, he probably regrets getting caught the most. But he's pretty hip to the P.R. issues surrounding his pot bust and because of it he offered a statement following his post-Cy Young interview yesterday:
"I made a mistake and I regret my actions. I want to apologize to the Giants organization and the fans. I know as a professional athlete I have a responsibility ... both on and off the field. I promise to do better in the future."I think the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman summed up this business the best the other day: "I know this whole Lincecum story is considered overblown and a joke in Northern California, where many folks probably vacuum more than 3.3 grams of pot residue off their carpets at home, but it's taken seriously elsewhere and by Major League Baseball."
I'd argue that in an ideal world it shouldn't be taken all that seriously, but we don't live in an ideal world. We live in a world where people freak out about small amounts of generally innocuous, generally harmless plants while drugs that actually kill a lot of people are allowed to advertise on outfield walls. We live in a world where the same writers who just acknowledged via their awards vote that it's possible for a guy to take a certain drug and still be a world class athlete also write about how bad a thing it was for that athlete to take that drug.
I understand that Lincecum broke the law and should pay his fine. I also understand that he's subject to a collective bargaining agreement that tells him he can't smoke pot, and to the extent that agreement calls for anything to happen to him because of it, so be it. But the fact that we expect guys like Lincecum or Michael Phelps or whoever to make public apologies like this is a bit much for me.
There aren't many people who know the Red Sox front office better than Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes do, and this morning they provide their views as to what that front office is going to do this offseason. Their thinking:
Right now the odds favor a stand-pat kind of offseason for Boston. Which, given the relative dearth of high-quality free agents and trade bait, is probably the most prudent move. There's no shame in playing for the Wild Card Red Sox fans.
As Matthew noted yesterday, while Aaron Heilman has started before, he's probably a better bet to pitch out of the pen. Seems that the Dbacks' GM Josh Byrnes agrees, as he said last night that Heilman "definitely strengthens our bullpen."Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo did not immediately return voice and text messages seeking additional information, and players and coaches in Arizona were instructed not to discuss the injury with the media.Anyone else get an image of Rizzo crouched in the fetal position on the floor behind his desk, rocking back and forth and repeating "this is not happening . . . this is not happening . . ." as his cell phone rings constantly?
Paul Lo Duca was on XM radio yesterday lobbying for a spring training invite:You know, there are crazier things than a team taking a chance on Lo Duca. For example, maybe there's a 37 year-old, no-hit catcher who wrote personal checks to buy illegal drugs, had an affair with a teenager and was caught up in gambling allegations who doesn't have Lo Duca's infectious enthusiasm.
"I'm completely healthy. I feel unbelievable. I've been hitting the last four or five days constantly and started my workouts. I feel great. My hand feels 100 percent for the first time in a while. My hamstring and my knee finally healed after the surgery I had there. ... I want to come back and play."
Free Agency Preview - Catcher
Free Agency Preview - First base & DH
Free Agency Preview - Second base
Free Agency Preview - Third base
Free Agency Preview - Shortstop
Free Agency Preview - Outfield
This is part seven in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. Here are the starting pitchers.
John Lackey (Angels) - Lackey is obviously the class of this year's group of pitchers, but he's missed pieces of the last two seasons and his numbers are trending in the wrong direction. That he stands so far out in front of the rest of the options might cause some club to offer him Barry Zito money. Zito, though, entered free agency having thrown at least 210 innings in each of his six full seasons in the majors. Lackey has hit that mark twice in seven seasons, and with a career 3.81 ERA, he doesn't have quite the same track record that Zito did. He's received Cy Young votes just once in his career, finishing in third place in 2007. While he ranks among the game's top 20 starting pitchers right now, a third elbow injury in three years could change that in a hurry. The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Mariners look like the best bets to contend with the Angels for his services. The Angels should have the funds to keep him, but expectations are that he'll depart. Prediction: Yankees - six years, $102 million
Aroldis Chapman (FA) - Chapman has already met with a bunch of teams, and unlike the rest of the free agents, he's been fair game to sign with anyone for the last few weeks. Still, there's been nothing to suggest anything is close to happening. The hard-throwing lefty is probably too wild to succeed as a major league starter now, but it's possible he could contribute as a reliever right away and he has a world of potential as a starter. I'm still guessing that he will end up somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million. The Yankees and Red Sox are the clear favorites for his services, with Seattle a possibility as a long shot. Teams like the Mets, Angels and Dodgers will need to spend their available funds on someone more likely to provide an immediate impact. Prediction: Yankees - six years, $48 million
Randy Wolf (Dodgers) - Two full seasons after four injury-plagued ones should get Wolf a multiyear contract this time. He had the chance to re-sign with the Astros for three years last winter, but he held out for more money. In the end, he had to settle for one year, but it will work out well for him, since he can now look forward to significantly bigger payday after going 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA in a career-high 214 1/3 innings for the Dodgers. One would think the Dodgers would try hard to re-sign him. They have a big need, and he might be willing to accept a slight discount to stay in Southern California. However, few seem to think that he'll be back. The Mariners and Mets might be the favorites here. That Wolf, like Lackey, will require draft-pick compensation could cause the Brewers to shy away. They're the only two available starters to qualify as Type A free agents. Prediction: Mariners - three years, $36 million
Ben Sheets (Brewers) - Sheets was originally expected to attempt an August comeback from surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, but he didn't progress as hoped and he ended up sitting out the season. He's still on track to be fully healthy in spring training, and with Tim Hudson off the board, I think he now qualifies as the best investment among free agent starters. There are still questions about his arm, but his surgery wasn't one of the big ones and it's not unreasonable to think that he could match Lackey going forward. I expect the Red Sox and Yankees to be involved, and I'd be listing Boston as the favorites here if I didn't already give them Matt Holliday. He shouldn't have to settle for a one-year deal, though he might prefer to go that route so that he can rebuild his value. Prediction: Rangers - two years, $20 million
Rich Harden (Cubs) - Harden would seem to be the one free agent starter capable of leading a league in ERA next year. Of course, he'd have to qualify for the title first. He's done it just once in his career, that happening back in 2004. Harden finished with a 2.07 ERA in 26 starts in 2008, but he was awfully inconsistent last season and ended up with a 4.09 ERA. Even with his velocity down, he racked up 171 strikeouts in 141 innings. However, he also walked 67 and averaged just 5.4 innings per start. Because he's such a high-risk pitcher, he only really makes sense for a large-market club willing to gamble. The Red Sox, Yankees and Mariners would seem to be in the best position to take him on, though it's possible the Nationals or Orioles could try their luck with him. Prediction: Orioles - two years, $18 million
Jarrod Washburn (Tigers) - Washburn just needs to find one team more willing to look at the 2.64 ERA from the first four months of 2009 than the 4.55 ERA from his first three seasons in Seattle and the 7.33 ERA from his eight starts in Detroit. In his defense, he was pitching with a bum knee for the Tigers. The surgery was minor, and he should be 100 percent next year. Washburn, though, is a 35-year-old flyball pitcher with no strikeout pitch. Send him back to Seattle or maybe San Diego and he'll probably turn in a couple of more decent seasons. If he's thrown into an average ballpark and given an average outfield defense, he'll likely be quite a bust. The Twins and Brewers seem to have the most interest in him. Prediction: Twins - two years, $17 million
Joel Pineiro (Cardinals) - Pineiro is right there with Wolf as far as having delivered the best 2009 entering free agency. Suddenly a pure sinkerballer, Pineiro had the top groundball rate of any qualified starter last season and walked just 27 batters in 214 innings. It was an incredible performance from a guy who hadn't turned in a quality season since 2003. That he has just the one year of encouraging results could hurt him much like it did Wolf last winter. But there are so few pitchers ahead of him that it's easy to see him getting a three-year deal worth $7 million-$8 million per season. The Mets, Brewers, Nationals and Dodgers figure to inquire. Prediction: Brewers - three years, $22.5 million
Andy Pettitte (Yankees) - Once again, it's almost surely either a return to the Yankees or retirement for Pettitte. He's talked for years about calling it quits, and it's doubtful that he'll ever get a chance to leave on a higher note. While he wasn't outstanding in the regular season, finishing 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA, he went 4-0 in five postseason starts, with the final win coming in the World Series finale. If Pettitte does choose to come back, he shouldn't have to settle for such an incentive-laden deal again. The Yankees took advantage of his loyalty in guaranteeing him just $5.5 million last season, though he ended up earning $10.5 million in all. Prediction: Yankees - one year, $10 million plus incentives
Brad Penny (Giants) - It certainly didn't work out in Boston, but Penny had great velocity throughout 2009 and the results to match came after he joined the Giants, as he went 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six starts. Odds are that he'll stick in the NL now, but he'd be a fine investment for just about any team in the circuit. The Giants figure to ask him back, and the Brewers would be smart to make a play. Prediction: Brewers - two years, $16 million
Vicente Padilla (Dodgers) - Even with the dud in Game 5 of the NLCS against the Phillies, Padilla did more for his stock in September and October than any other free agent pitcher. He was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in seven starts and a relief appearance after signing with the Dodgers, and he was dominant in his first two postseason starts before giving up six runs in his third and final outing. Including the postseason, he had a 51/16 K/BB ratio in 56 2/3 IP for the Dodgers. As a Ranger, he came in at 59/42 in 108 IP. Padilla needs to stay in the NL now. He's probably looking at another multiyear deal as a result of the strong finish, and the Dodgers may well be the team to give it to him. Prediction: Dodgers - two years, $15 million
Jon Garland (Dodgers) - Following a rough first two months, Garland had a 3.35 ERA in 147 2/3 innings from June through the end of the season. He even posted a 65/21 K/BB ration after the All-Star break, which is simply incredible for him. Still, he was overtaken by Padilla late and left out of the Dodgers' postseason rotation. Garland's reputation was certainly overblown as a result of back-to-back 18-win seasons in 2005 and '06, but he's actually underrated now. He's still just 30, he's made 32 starts in eight straight seasons and he's never had a truly awful year. The Diamondbacks should consider inviting him back, and he could be viewed as a replacement for Pineiro in St. Louis. Prediction: Athletics - one year, $7.5 million
Doug Davis (Diamondbacks) - The annual 1.5 WHIP sure isn't pretty, but Davis is an awfully durable fourth starter and that has some value. Contenders will probably shy away, but I don't necessarily think AL clubs should be as wary of him as they typically are of mediocre NL starters. Davis seems to find ways survive against quality offenses, and his interleague track record is pretty good. Prediction: Nationals - two years, $12 million
Carl Pavano (Twins) - After throwing a total of 145 2/3 innings in four seasons as a Yankee, Pavano was able to go 199 1/3 for the Indians and Twins last season. He was hardly great in the process -- he finished with a 5.10 ERA -- but his K/BB ratio and WHIP were solid throughout. His FIP ERA was 4.00. Obviously, Pavano would be a poor risk on a multiyear deal, but there should be plenty of teams interested in signing him for a year: Seattle, Milwaukee, Arizona and St. Louis to name a few. The Twins will also make an effort to re-sign him. Prediction: Diamondbacks - one year, $7 million
Jason Marquis (Rockies) - Marquis cost himself a bunch of money late. He was among the major league leaders in wins for much of the first half, but he came in at 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA after the break and the Rockies left him out of their postseason rotation. Marquis has made it clear that his desire is to pitch for the Mets, and he could fit right into their price range. They'll likely try to do better first, but it's possible Marquis will get his wish. The Nationals and Brewers could also look at him. It seems unlikely that any AL teams will get involved. Prediction: Mets - two years, $10 million
Pedro Martinez (Phillies) - Martinez intends to put in a full season in 2010 after going 5-1 with a 3.63 ERA in nine regular-season starts and 0-2 with a 3.71 ERA in the postseason for the Phillies. Of course, it'd be insane to pencil him in to make 30 starts, something he hasn't done since 2005. But he still has enough life on his pitches to justify a $5 million-$6 million salary. The team that signs him just has to hope that he'll be healthy at the right time. Prediction: Marlins - one year, $5 million
Brett Myers (Phillies) - Myers seems like a lock for a one-year deal after experiencing diminished velocity and unsatisfactory results following his return from hip surgery. It's admirable that he tried to come back so quickly, but he probably didn't do himself any favors headed into free agency. He could choose to market himself either as a starter or as a late-game reliever. One thing is for certain: he won't be back with the Phillies. Prediction: Rangers - one year, $4 million plus incentives
John Smoltz (Cardinals) - Smoltz is open to returning to the American League or signing as a closer, but he'd likely be the most comfortable staying in the NL as a starting pitcher. A return to St. Louis would be the best possible scenario for him, and the Cardinals should be interested in re-signing him as long as he doesn't try to hold out for too long. Prediction: Cardinals - one year, $4 million plus incentives
Erik Bedard (Mariners) - Bedard is likely to miss at least the first month and perhaps the first half of next season after August surgery to fix his labrum and an inflated bursa. So, he's probably looking an incentive-laden one-year deal, potentially with a lucrative option for 2011. The Mariners haven't ruled out re-signing him, and large-market clubs like the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels could be involved. Prediction: Red Sox - one year, $4 million plus incentives
Randy Johnson (Giants) - Now that he has his 300 victories, there just isn't much reason for Johnson to try to gut it out for another year. His rotator cuff tear won't simply go away, and surgery to repair it would likely cost him at least half of his age-46 season. It's surely not worth it at this stage of his career. Prediction: Retirement
Braden Looper (Brewers) - The Brewers didn't think it was worth keeping Looper around for $6.5 million next season and bought him out for $1 million instead. Looper did give the team innings last season and somehow managed to go 14-7 with his 5.22 ERA, but given his modest strikeout rate, he needs a much better defense behind him than that provided by the Brewers. Another NL team will likely sign him for $3 million-$4 million. Prediction: Padres - one year, $3.5 million
Justin Duchscherer (Athletics) - Duchscherer would seem to owe it to Oakland to come back for another season at a discount after giving them nothing for their $3.9 million in 2009. The A's, though, are prepared to let him go. Duchscherer never pitched in the majors last season after what was described as minor elbow surgery at the end of the spring. Just when it seemed he was set to return in August, it was announced that he had been diagnosed with depression and he was taking the rest of the season off. As if those items weren't sufficiently visible red flags, Duchscherer also has a long history of back problems. Given that he was an All-Star in 2008, he can hardly be dismissed entirely. However, he's a long shot to give a team 180 innings. Prediction: Angels - one year, $2 million plus incentives
Other free agents: Noel Arguelles (FA), Jose Contreras (Rockies), Todd Wellemeyer (Cardinals), Kelvim Escobar (Angels), Livan Hernandez (Nationals), Paul Byrd (Red Sox), Jeff Weaver (Dodgers), Noah Lowry (Giants), Brett Tomko (Athletics), Eric Milton (Dodgers), Chris Capuano (Brewers), Rich Hill (Orioles), Daniel Cabrera (Diamondbacks), Kris Benson (Rangers), Edgar Gonzalez (Athletics), Zach Jackson (Indians), Kason Gabbard (Red Sox), Lenny DiNardo (Royals), Josh Towers (Yankees), Adam Eaton (Rockies), Josh Banks (Padres), Justin Lehr (Reds), Virgil Vasquez (Pirates), Bruce Chen (Royals), Jason Schmidt (Dodgers), Mike Hampton (Astros)
Arguelles, the other Cuban defector, is a 20-year-old lefty reputed to throw in the low-90s. He's still flying under the radar at the moment, but that could change after some workouts this winter. ... Contreras was better last season than his 4.92 ERA indicates, and he deserves a guaranteed rotation spot. He could be a nice pickup for $2 million or so. ... With his velocity down a bit, Wellemeyer was a bust last season. However, he had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 191 2/3 innings for the Cardinals in 2008. He'll come cheap, and he offers nice upside.
Escobar is a complete wild card at this point. He didn't undergo another shoulder surgery after his June setback, so he should be ready to pitch in spring training. Still, it's far too early to tell whether he'll be able to start games again. ... Byrd remains a capable fourth or fifth starter, but he may opt for retirement for real this time. ... Lowry could be interesting if healthy, and his agent says he is. I'll believe it when I see it. ... Schmidt is expected to retire, and Hampton will miss next season after shoulder surgery.
Trade candidates: Felix Hernandez (Mariners), Roy Halladay (Blue Jays - NTC), Chad Billingsley (Dodgers), Edwin Jackson (Tigers), Javier Vazquez (Braves - limited NTC), Ricky Nolasco (Marlins), Carlos Zambrano (Cubs - NTC), Jonathan Sanchez (Giants), Zach Duke (Pirates), Aaron Harang (Reds), Bronson Arroyo (Reds), Francisco Liriano (Twins), Brandon Morrow (Mariners), Manny Parra (Brewers), John Maine (Mets), Glen Perkins (Twins), Michael Bowden (Red Sox), Armando Galarraga (Tigers), Brian Bannister (Royals), Kevin Correia (Padres), Andy Sonnanstine (Rays), Kevin Millwood (Rangers - limited NTC), Derek Lowe (Braves), Kenshin Kawakami (Braves), Collin Balester (Nationals), Kyle Kendrick (Phillies), Kyle Davies (Royals), Micah Owings (Reds), Ian Kennedy (Yankees), Jo-Jo Reyes (Braves), Garrett Olson (Mariners), Antonio Bastardo (Phillies), Matt Maloney (Reds), Eric Stults (Dodgers), Kei Igawa (Yankees), Dana Eveland (Athletics), Mitch Talbot (Rays), David Purcey (Blue Jays), Drew Carpenter (Phillies)
Halladay is obviously more likely to go than Hernandez, and it would change the above predictions a great deal if he suddenly became a Yankee in the near future. ... As for the other bigger names, I think Harang and Lowe are the best bets to be traded. Arroyo is getting more play as the pitcher the Reds may part with, but Harang figures to draw more interest around the league and I'm really not sure he's the better pitcher of the two at this point. The Braves will likely have to subsidize a portion of Lowe's contract to move him, but they'd likely prefer that route to trading Vazquez.
Non-tender candidates: Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees), John Maine (Mets), Kyle Davies (Royals), David Bush (Brewers), Scott Olsen (Nationals), Dustin McGowan (Blue Jays), Tim Redding (Mets), Boof Bonser (Twins), Dustin Moseley (Angels), Brad James (Astros), Anthony Lerew (Royals)
It's always possible the two sides could work out something over the next couple of weeks, but my guess is that the Yankees will non-tender Wang and then re-sign him later. Maybe there would be a market for someone with his upside, but there's simply no telling what he'll look like next spring after surgery to repair a torn ligament in his shoulder capsule. ... Maine is due only $3 million-$3.5 million, so the Mets need to bring him back and hope for the best. Redding, though, should be a goner. ... I'm skeptical that Davies is worth the $1.7 million-$2 million that he'll command, but indications are that the Royals will keep him. ... Bush is almost certainly done in Milwaukee, and Olsen should have to take a paycut to stay in Washington. I'm guessing that McGowan and Bonser will keep their spots.
2010-11 free agents: Roy Halladay (Blue Jays), Cliff Lee (Phillies), Josh Beckett (Red Sox), Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks), Javier Vazquez (Braves), Ted Lilly (Cubs), Joe Blanton (Phillies), Aaron Harang (Reds)*, Jeff Francis (Rockies)*, Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Kevin Millwood (Rangers), Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers), Chris Young (Padres)*, Bronson Arroyo (Reds)*, Jake Westbrook (Indians), David Bush (Brewers), Kevin Correia (Padres), Jeff Suppan (Brewers)*, Freddy Garcia (White Sox), Nate Robertson (Tigers), Jamie Moyer (Phillies), Jeremy Bonderman (Tigers), Brian Moehler (Astros), Dontrelle Willis (Tigers)
2011 options: Harang - $12.75 million ($2 million buyout), Francis - $7 million, Young - $8.5 million, Arroyo - $11 million-$13 million ($2 million buyout), Suppan - $12.75 million ($2 million buyout)
2011-12 free agents: Felix Hernandez (Mariners), Justin Verlander (Tigers), Josh Johnson (Marlins), Matt Cain (Giants), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)*, Chris Carpenter (Cardinals)*, Wandy Rodriguez (Astros), Edwin Jackson (Tigers), Aaron Cook (Rockies)*, Ryan Dempster (Cubs)*, Mark Buehrle (White Sox), Gil Meche (Royals), Roy Oswalt (Astros)*, Scott Kazmir (Angels)*, Zach Duke (Pirates), Paul Maholm (Pirates)*, Oliver Perez (Mets), Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees), John Maine (Mets), Kenshin Kawakami (Braves), Tim Wakefield (Red Sox), Brandon McCarthy (Rangers), Carlos Silva (Mariners)*, Scott Olsen (Nationals)
2012 options: Wainwright - $21 million club option for 2012-13, Carpenter - $15 million ($1 million buyout), Cook - $11 million mutual option ($500,000 buyout), Dempster - $14 million player option, Oswalt - $16 million mutual option ($2 million buyout), Kazmir - $13.5 million ($2.5 million buyout), Maholm - $9.75 million ($750,000 buyout), Silva - $12 million mutual option ($2 million buyout)
On the day before teams could officially make offers to another team's free agents, most of the talk from GMs and owners related to which players they wouldn't pursue.
*As we touched on earlier, the Angels are out on Matt Holliday.
*The Giants say it's doubtful that they'll be involved in the chase for Holliday or Jason Bay.
*The Dodgers are looking for starting pitching and may put together a package for Roy Halladay, but they won't pursue John Lackey, says the Los Angeles Times.
*A source told the Chicago Tribune that the Cubs won't try for Pedro Martinez.
*We also learned earlier this week that the Tigers won't attempt to re-sign summer acquisitions Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff.
FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, who suddenly joined twitter a mere two days after I whined about his absence mentions that that the Braves were turned down by the Brewers after offering Derek Lowe for Corey Hart.
It wasn't a tough call for Milwaukee. Hart's stock is way down from a year ago and he likely could be had in the right deal, but he's not particularly expensive. He'll probably command $4 million-$4.5 million in arbitration, and he's still two years away from free agency.
Lowe, on the other hand, is due $45 million for three years. The Brewers could really use someone with his ability to eat innings, but no one is looking at Lowe as an asset at that price after his disappointing 2009 season.
The Brewers would almost surely jump if the Braves instead offered Javier Vazquez for Hart, but it's doubtful Atlanta will go that route.
Aaron Heilman was traded for a third time in 12 months Wednesday, going from the Cubs to the Diamondbacks for prospects Scott Maine and Ryne White.
There's a good chance the Cubs would have non-tendered Heilman. The former Met did bounce back from an awful 2008, lowering his ERA from 5.21 to 4.11 last season, but he still wasn't close to the same kind of reliever he was in 2006 and 2007. One of the game's most reliable setup men, he combined to pitch a whopping 173 innings with a 3.33 ERA and 49 holds between those seasons. His strikeout rate has remained strong since, but he's been giving up more homers and walks and it's been hard to trust him late in close games as a result.
The Diamondbacks could let Heilman contend for a rotation spot, as he did with the Cubs last spring before being returned to the pen. Heilman would certainly prefer to start games, as he made clear in New York on numerous occasions. Heilman does have the advantage of being very good against left-handed hitters, thanks to his plus changeup. Still, as shaky as he's been working an inning at a time these last couple of years, there's little reason to think he's ready to emerge as a quality starter.
In Maine and White, the Diamondbacks received a couple of fringe prospects. Maine, a 2007 sixth-round pick, had a 2.90 ERA and a 61/22 K/BB ratio in 62 IP while being used strictly as a reliever in Double- and Triple-A last season. The former Miami Hurricane has a chance to be more than a lefty specialist out of the pen, but it's doubtful that he'll be a true setup man.
White, 23, was regarded as Arizona's top first base prospect a year ago, but he couldn't hit for power in the hitter friendly California League last season. He finished at .266/.371/.356 with six homers in 418 at-bats for Single-A Visalia. Particularly now that the Diamondbacks have young first baseman Brandon Allen, who was picked up from the White Sox for Tony Pena Jr., White was very expendable.
It's possible that the Diamondbacks could have gotten Heilman without surrendering any talent had they waited a month, but they didn't want to take the chance. He's set to make a little more than $2 million in his last year of arbitration, and at that price, it's quite possible another team would have traded for him.
My thought is that it's a pretty good move for Arizona. Heilman has proven extremely durable, and he offers more upside than the typical pitcher who goes for $2 million or so in free agency. As for the Cubs, they get one decent prospect for a pitcher who was no longer in their plans. It's doubtful that they could have done much better.
Talking to The News Journal's Scott Lauber, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. on Wednesday listed third base and bullpen help as his top priorities this winter, adding that he didn't expect his team's payroll to exceed $140 million by much if any margin.
That doesn't leave the Phillies with as much flexibility as anticipated. The Phillies already have $106.75 million committed to 12 players for 2009. Joe Blanton ($7 million), Shane Victorino ($5.5 million), Carlos Ruiz ($2.5 million), Chad Durbin ($2.5 million) and Ben Francisco ($1.5 million) figure to collect $19 million or so through arbitration, pushing the Phillies up to $125 million before anyone is acquired.
So, that leaves the Phillies about $15 million for six roster spots. On offense, they need a third baseman, a utilityman, a pinch-hitter if Matt Stairs doesn't return and a backup catcher. They also want another setup man to put in front of Brad Lidge and a pitcher for rotation depth.
That modest limit would make it awfully difficult for them to bring in a Chone Figgins or a quality starter. Mark DeRosa, apparently their top pick for third base, would eat up at least $6 million of that in the first year of a two- or three-year deal. Garrett Atkins could come a little cheaper. A setup man like Brandon Lyon or LaTroy Hawkins will likely cost $4 million-$5 million. Fernando Rodney and Mike Gonzalez could be even more expensive.
Barring a surprising move to trade for a cheap third baseman, the Phillies won't be going after the big names in free agency. They have some room to maneuver, but it's doubtful that they'll be too adventurous after back-to-back World Series appearances.
As indecisive as the voters were on who was the NL's best pitcher in 2009, there was an incredible consensus on the top three, with Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright claiming 94 of the 96 available ballot spots.
Not surprisingly, the two voters who were against the grain weren't from the usual pool of newspaper writers. ESPN.com's Keith Law, a former Baseball Prospectus writer and Blue Jays assistant GM, placed Javier Vazquez second on his ballot, while Will Carroll, of Baseball Prospectus, opted to go with Dan Haren third.
While I'm typically on the stathead side of these matters, I thought the conventional wisdom was correct in this case: the voting should have come down to the big three. Haren and Vazquez both had excellent seasons, but the numbers weren't compelling enough to elevate them over the league's ERA leaders.
In particular, I take issue with Law's choice to place Vazquez between Lincecum and Wainwright on his ballot.
The conventional numbers clearly favor Wainwright:
Wainwright - 19-8, 2.63 ERA in 233 IP
Vazquez - 15-10, 2.87 ERA in 219 1/3 IP
Law says Vazquez should get some credit for pitching in the tougher division. However, Wainwright had the higher opponent OPS for the season, 733 to 731.
Law's main argument, though, heavily weighs in the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) stat to say Vazquez was the better pitcher. And there is a case to be made, as the Cardinals clearly had a superior defense to Atlanta. FIP has Lincecum at a league-best 2.34, Vazquez at 2.80 and Wainwright at 3.11.
But that's placing a lot of weight in a stat that doesn't translate into wins and losses. In theory, Vazquez was the better pitcher of the two. In real world results, Wainwright had an obvious edge.
The Cardinals and Braves had some remarkably similar numbers this year. The Cardinals finished the year with a 747 team OPS and a 3.66 team ERA. The Braves had a 744 OPS and a 3.57 ERA. Looking at those numbers, you'd suspect the team had remarkably similar win totals. However, the Cardinals finished 91-71 and the Braves 86-76.
Now get a load of this: the Cardinals were 68-60 when Wainwright didn't pitch. The Braves were 68-62 when Vazquez didn't pitch. So, the Cards were 23-11 in Wainwright's starts, while the Braves were 18-14 when Vazquez pitched. That's the real world for you.
Angels owner Arte Moreno gave the Los Angeles Times a bunch of quotes that illustrate where his team stands entering free agency.
*Reaffirming GM Tony Reagins' quotes from a couple of days ago, Moreno said there will be no pursuit of free agent Matt Holliday:
"He is not going to be an Angel. We are not looking at Holliday at all."
Moreno also made it pretty clear that free agent Vladimir Guerrero wasn't in the team's plans, but that Jason Bay, who reportedly turned down an offer from the Red Sox, might be.
*Moreno claimed the team is currently looking at $101 million in commitments for 2010, leaving the Angels not far short of their $113 million output from last season.
Guerrero, John Lackey and Chone Figgins are all off the books, but the Angels are currently at $76 million for next year anyway and it seems they're currently accounting for $25 million in arbitration raises. Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and Jeff Mathis are all eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, and Mike Napoli and Maicer Izturis are all due raises. $22 million-$24 million looks like a reasonable estimate for what they'll earn.
So, that's $100 million. Add in $4 million more for free agent Darren Oliver or a similar replacement. If the Angels want to stay in the $120 million range, then they're only going to be able to sign one player from the group of Bay, Lackey and Figgins.
The fact that the team is spending $22 million on Gary Matthews Jr., Scot Shields and the already forgotten Justin Speier doesn't help matters.
*Moreno did suggest that the Angels could save money by turning third base over to Brandon Wood:
"Eventually, Brandon is going to get his 600, 800, 1,000 at-bats. He's done everything he can in our minor league system. He's been a very patient guy. ... I can't tell you he'll be guaranteed a job. He's one of the players that's earned an opportunity to try to win a job."
Given the Angels lack of payroll flexibility, it seems pretty likely that Wood will be in the lineup on Opening Day.
MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reports that free agent outfielder Marlon Byrd is unlikely to re-sign with the Rangers after the two sides recently had unproductive talks.
"We've had a decent amount of conversation," general manager Jon Daniels said. "I expect them to test the market. Based on what they're looking for ... we're not in a position to do that right now. We expect them to talk to other clubs and see what's out there. We're going to be looking at alternatives."
Byrd was the Rangers' primary center fielder and also saw extended action in left field, hitting .283/.329/.479 with 20 homers and 43 doubles in 599 plate appearances. After a slow start to his career the former top prospect has batted .295/.352/.468 in three seasons with the Rangers, and even adjusting for Texas' hitter-friendly ballpark that would make him solidly above average offensively among center fielders.
However, his defense in center field graded out poorly this season according to Ultimate Zone Rating, he's always carried more weight than most center fielders, and he's 32 years old, so many teams will likely view Byrd as a corner outfielder who can handle center field if needed rather than a full-time center fielder. Texas seems committed to Julio Borbon in center field after he impressed offensively in 46 games as a rookie, leaving Josh Hamilton to man right field.
Showing more than ever before that they're smartly willing to look beyond win-loss records to determine the league's best pitcher, the Baseball Writers Association of America followed up their selection of 16-game winner Zack Greinke as AL Cy Young by giving 15-game winner Tim Lincecum the NL award.
Lincecum received just 11 of 32 first-place votes, which is actually one fewer than Adam Wainwright, but was second on 12 ballots and third on nine ballots to narrowly defeat runner-up Chris Carpenter. Wainwright finished third, because while a dozen voters were still swayed by his league-leading win total 15 of 32 ballots placed him third.
Javier Jazquez and Dan Haren were the only other pitchers to receive votes on the three-line ballots, both at the expense of Carpenter being absent. Vazquez received a second-place vote and Haren got a third-place nod. Cardinals fans will no doubt be upset about the NL balloting, but Lincecum and Greinke are the rightful choices as the best pitchers in each league and the fact that the BBWAA awarded two guys who combined for just 31 wins is a big step in the right direction.
Lincecum joins Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Denny McLain, and Jim Palmer as back-to-back Cy Young winners, which is pretty amazing company for the 25-year-old Giants ace. Perhaps just as amazing is the BBWAA producing the exact same order, one through five, as my ballot. Actually, so far three of the four major awards have matched my picks, and I'm hopeful that the BBWAA can continue their logical voting next week with Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols as the MVPs.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today posted a bunch of interesting notes via Twitter today, including:
* Tampa Bay has become "the clear-cut favorite" to acquire Milton Bradley from the Cubs.
Last offseason the Rays pursued Bradley as a free agent before he signed a three-year, $30 million deal with the Cubs and now they can get him for pennies on the dollar. There have been rumors of a Bradley-for-Pat Burrell swap, as Burrell was a huge disappointing in his first season with the Rays and is owed $9 million in 2010.
* Nick Swisher is "ever so quietly" being shopped by the Yankees.
Swisher was credited with helping to energize the Yankees' clubhouse and more importantly he made a big on-field impact by hitting .249/.371/.498 with 29 homers and 35 doubles, but going 6-for-47 (.128) in the playoffs overshadowed his strong regular season. Could he be an option for the Cardinals if Matt Holliday signs elsewhere?
* Los Angeles is "focusing on" Roy Halladay because the Dodgers "badly need an ace," but would have to give up Chad Billingsley "and others" to get a deal done.
Billingsley is 24 years old with a 47-30 record and 3.55 ERA in 634 career innings, so dealing him straight-up for one season of Halladay sounds iffy to me. Dealing him "and others" would likely be a mistake given that Halladay can become a free agent next offseason while Billingsley is under team control through 2012.
* Detroit, Seattle, and a "mystery team" have talked about a deal involving Edwin Jackson and Brandon Morrow.
Various rumors last week had the Tigers shopping Jackson because of payroll constraints and the Mariners have soured on Morrow, but obviously this is tough to weigh in on too much without knowing the third party.
John Grabow has decided to pass on free agency and remain with the Cubs, signing a two-year deal worth a reported $7.5 million.
Acquired from the Pirates at midseason, Grabow had a 3.24 ERA in 25 innings out of the Cubs' bullpen and has a nice-looking 3.09 ERA in 148 innings overall during the past two years.
However, with a 119/77 K/BB ratio and 14 homers allowed during that time his secondary numbers suggest that Grabow has been quite fortunate to post those marks.
His batting average on balls in play and the rate at which he strands runners on base were both unsustainably strong and figure to be worse going forward, making it likely that he'll be a decent left-handed setup man rather than a lights-out option in the late innings.
Chicago certainly has enough payroll space that dropping $3.75 million per season on a non-elite reliever isn't a big issue either way, but I'd bet against Grabow being worth $7.5 million over the next two years.
SI.com's Jon Heyman reports that Jason Bay has turned down a four-year, $60 million offer from the Red Sox and will officially hit the open market.
Not a shock, certainly. Bay was never going to accept $60 million, whether he ends up remaining in Boston or going elsewhere, and there was little reason for him to accept a deal of any kind before at least seeing what other offers are available.
As general manager Theo Epstein put it: "It's not a surprise that a player that's gone this far wants to see what's out there."
The assumption is that a) Bay would like to re-sign with Boston, b) the Red Sox are legitimately interested in bringing him back, and c) Epstein and company could turn their attention to Matt Holliday at some point if the market for Bay is crowded. Interestingly, the Cardinals have indicated that they aren't interested in pursuing Bay if Holliday decides to leave St. Louis, so the left fielders simply swapping teams is highly unlikely.
As noted by Matthew Pouliot in his excellent, in-depth preview of this offseason's free agent outfielders, once you get beyond Bay and Holliday there isn't much available in terms of big bats. Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jermaine Dye are the best of the rest, but all come with question marks that could have teams that miss out on Bay and Holliday instead turning to the trade market for lineup help.
Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for NL Cy Young, but first here's how my ballot would look:
1. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
2. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis
3. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
4. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta
5. Dan Haren, Arizona
This is a tight race, so it'll be an interesting test of whether the BBWAA has truly moved past focusing on win-loss records to evaluate pitchers or if they were merely willing to do so with Zack Greinke because he was so clearly the best guy in the AL.
Adam Wainwright led the NL with 19 wins and had a great year, posting a 2.63 ERA and 212/66 K/BB ratio in 233 innings. He also just wasn't as good as Tim Lincecum, who had a 2.48 ERA and 261/68 K/BB ratio in 225 innings. Wainwright logged eight more innings than Lincecum, but allowed six more runs with 20 percent fewer strikeouts and the same number of walks, and his opponents' batting average was 40 points worse. We'll see how many voters focus on that rather than Lincecum's modest 15 wins.
And then there's Chris Carpenter, who led the league with a 2.24 ERA and ranked second to Wainwright with 17 wins. At first glance that would make him the favorite, but it's important to note that Carpenter logged only 193 innings to rank 26th in the NL. Is the difference between his 2.24 ERA and Lincecum's 2.48 ERA bigger than the difference between his 193 innings and Lincecum's 225 innings? Or put another way, if Carpenter tossed 32.2 more innings with a 3.85 ERA he'd match Lincecum in innings and ERA.
Certainly a 3.85 ERA in 32.2 innings isn't dominant pitching, but it does have value and that gap between Lincecum and Carpenter makes it worth examining workloads along with ERAs. Lincecum was second-best in the NL at preventing runs with an ERA that's 10 percent higher than Carpenter's, but he threw 20 percent more innings. He also led the NL in Zack Greinke's new favorite stat, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and saved slightly more runs than Carpenter compared to a replacement-level pitcher.
This is a very tight race and my guess is that Carpenter will win the award because of his lower ERA, higher win total, and a dramatic comeback from arm injuries making for a much better story, but Lincecum is the reigning Cy Young winner and was actually better than last season even if his win total kept many people from realizing it. He gets my nod for the best pitcher in the league, just barely over Carpenter, because of a higher workload and more dominance with similar overall run prevention.
There has long been an assumption that either the Yankees or the Red Sox will the ultimate landing pad for Roy Halladay, but it's just been speculation. It's getting less speculative, however, as Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees have actually called the Jays about Doc.
Heyman thinks that the starting point of any Yankees-Jays talks would be either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes (last year the Jays wanted both, but probably weren't serious about trading with the Yankees). Catching prospect Jesus Montero is mentioned, but young stud catchers are harder to find than ace pitchers, and given how old the Yankees' current catcher is, he's probably off limits.
One direction Heyman doesn't mention is the possibility of the Yankees going in with little in the way of young talent, but instead eating Vernon Wells' deal or something creative like that. That's certainly something they would have done a couple of years ago, but the Hal Administration has been smarter about taking on big dumb deals lately. They take on big smart deals.
If the Yankees nab Halladay: turn out the lights, baseball, the party -- at least for 2010 -- is likely over.
The awards parade continues at 1:30 Eastern today, as the NL Cy Young Award is going to be announced. Guys like Javier Vazquez and Josh Johnson could get some love, but most folks (including this folk) believes it will come down to one of these three guys:
Tim Lincecum: the incumbent had a lower ERA than he did in 2008. He walked fewer guys than he did in 2008. He struck only four fewer across a nearly identical number of innings. The only place where he took a hit was in his win total, and that's largely on the Giants' offense. If Greinke's award showed anything it showed that the writers are smarter about wins these days, so that shouldn't be fatal to his chances, but they're still all about storylines. Greinke was the new young stud to most BBWAA members. Lincecum was that last year. It would not surprise me at all if the writers did here what they so often do and vote for a fresher face, even if he had a lesser arm.
Chris Carpenter: Not a fresh face, but certainly a comeback story and writers LOVE comeback stories. That aside, he's not all storyline. In fact, he'd be a great choice as he led the league in ERA, didn't allow home runs, didn't walk anyone and was absolutely essential to the Cards race to the division title.
Adam Wainwright: Won more games than either Carpenter or Lincecum, but allowed more baserunners and stuff too (his WHIP: 1.210. Lincecum's: 1.047; Carpenter's: 1.007). He's the freshest face here, though, and even if the wins won't be the determining factor, at least a couple of writers may go in with that in an otherwise close race.
If you put a gun to my head I give it to Carpenter, though I'd be happy with Lincecum too because (a) it's close; and (b) man, he's pretty awesome to watch and dammit this is my blog and I'm allowed to credit him for that. I think the writers will go with one of those two first and Wainwright in third.
Not that you didn't know that already (remember how Oliver Perez was the next Sandy Koufax?). But now MLB brass is coming right out and saying it:
Major League Baseball executive vice president Rob Manfred responded strongly to revenue sharing figures thrown out by Scott Boras at last week's general managers' meetings indicating that Boras's numbers "have no basis in reality" and that Boras is living in "fantasy land."
Here Manfred is referring to Boras' comments last week that there are Major League teams who receive $80 million from a baseball central fund and just pocket it rather than put it into payroll to make the teams better.
Given his penchant for exaggeration, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Boras' actual numbers are off. But the thing is, he's not wrong about the dynamic. Teams do take revenue sharing money and stash it or use it to pay down debt from their initial purchase of the team. There really is a strategy among some owners to maximize franchise value -- which is where their money comes from -- as opposed to maximizing wins and season-to-season revenue. Running a losing team with low gate is still a great deal as long as the team is low on debt, there's a nice, owner-friendly stadium deal in place, and as long as MLB central will never let a franchise truly crater.
So maybe Boras' $80 million figure is "fantasy land." But even if were, say, $40 million, it doesn't make him wrong.
Via MLB Trade Rumors comes a Tweet from NPB Tracker in which it is claimed that Hideki Matsui's mere presence on the New York Yankees accounts for "at least" $15 million in annual revenue. NPB bases this assertion on a report that's written in Japanese, so it's hard to say where this figure comes from, but we can spitball it a little, can't we?
One obvious source of income that would presumably dry up if Matsui leaves are those Japanese language billboards that appear on the Yankee Stadium outfield wall and behind home plate and stuff during games. I'm not privy to how much revenue those bring, but I do know that the Cubs recently entered into a a five-year, $10.8 million deal with Under Armour to have its logo displayed on the outfield doors at Wrigley Field.
That led to some litigation which at least suggested that the deal wasn't worth the money to Under Armour (UA wanted out from under the deal, the Cubs sued to keep it in place), so a ~$2 million a year value for that may be high as these things go. At least in Chicago and at least when it doesn't involve the Japanese market. Let's say that the Yankee Stadium ads are worth half again as much as the UA ads are. $3-4 million? I could totally see that.
After that, figure in a few million for Matsui and Yankee merch in Japan. Then figure in the fact that a bunch more eyes are watching Yankee broadcasts in Japan as well. Once you start adding these things up, it's not hard to envision a situation in which, even if Matsui's contract isn't totally paid for, it's heavily subsidized by revenue specific to his presence on the roster.
In the ordinary course it makes little sense to sign a 35 year-old guy who can only DH to a multi-year deal in excess of eight figures annually. In light of the Matsui-related revenue, however, I'd be shocked if the Yankees didn't sign the guy.
The Washington Nationals have hired Davey Johnson as a special assistant.
23-year-old Nippon Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish and Venezuelan outfielder Alex Ramirez took home the Japanese league MVP awards on Wednesday.
Darvish, who probably qualifies as one of the world's top 10 pitchers, earned the Pacific League honor despite making just 23 starts this season. He went 15-5 with a 1.73 ERA and a 167/45 K/BB ratio in 182 innings. As spectacular as he was, his performance can't be regarded as much more valuable than that Hideaki Wakui, who went 16-6 with a 2.30 ERA and 199 strikeouts in 211 2/3 innings for Seibu.
Also making a case for the award was Seibu third baseman Takeya Nakamura, who hit 48 homers to lead the league by nine. He hit .285/.359/.651 overall. Outfielder Teppei Tsuchiya was the league's leading hitter, coming in at .327/.391/.504 with 13 steals.
Ramirez won a second straight Central League MVP despite finishing with slightly weaker numbers than teammate Michihiro Ogasawara. Ramirez came in at .322/.347/.544 with 31 homers and 103 RBI, while Osagawara hit .309/.384/.543 with 31 homers and 107 RBI.
Ramirez played in the majors for the Indians and Pirates in from 1998-2000, hitting .259/.293/.437 with 12 homers in 332 at-bats. The outfielder is up to 287 homers in nine seasons in Japan.
The Central League's top pitcher was 24-year-old Wei-Ying Chen. In his first full year in the rotation, he went 8-4 with a 1.54 ERA and four shutouts in 24 starts. Former major leaguer Dicky Gonzalez finished third in the league with a 2.11 ERA.
Let down by Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra last winter, the A's plan to sit out free agency this time, GM Billy Beane told MLB.com on Wednesday. Instead, he wants to go the trade route.
"We're going to look at young players to fill spots, first and foremost," Beane said. "If those players we'd like to acquire aren't obtainable, we'll consider bringing in guys who can hold the positions down. We're going to stay disciplined and try to do everything we can to fill those spots with young players.
"So the next step is to continue to bring guys like Andrew [Bailey] up here. That's our responsibility, and I know the deal. To sign a couple free agents and have three or four press conferences during the winter doesn't get it done. We're going to be disciplined."
With the Angels certain to be in the mix again and both the Mariners and Rangers coming on in a big way, the A's are certain to need some reinforcements to succeed next year. As things stand now, they're likely looking at the following lineup:
CF Rajai Davis
RF Ryan Sweeney
LF Scott Hairston
DH Jack Cust
C Kurt Suzuki
3B Eric Chavez
2B Mark Ellis
1B Daric Barton
SS Cliff Pennington
There is some nice outfield depth in the form of Aaron Cunningham, Travis Buck and Eric Patterson, but that's a lineup without a lot of punch and the team will have to bring in a quality alternative to Chavez at third base in the event that free agent Adam Kennedy departs.
The rotation has Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and a bunch of question marks. Trevor Cahill is a top talent, but he might need some additional minor league time. Vin Mazzaro and Gio Gonzalez both had ERAs in the mid-5.00s last season. Josh Outman probably won't be an option until the second half following Tommy John surgery.
The bullpen will remain a strong point, especially if Joey Devine makes it back, and the defense should be very good if Cust can be limited to DH duties for the most part. The A's, though, simply must bring in a couple of quality players if they hope to challenge for the AL West. As is, it looks like they're in for a rebuilding season. Fortunately, they'll finally shed Chavez's contract after next year, potentially putting them into pretty good position for 2011.
Just minutes after Jim Tracy was named Manager of the Year by the Baseball Writers Association of America, the Rockies announced that they've agreed to terms with the award-winning skipper on a new three-year contract extension.
Tracy is now under contract through 2012 and his entire coaching staff will return for next season after the team went from last place in May to the Wild Card winners following a 74-42 run with him at the helm.
Colorado is Tracy's third managerial job. He took over for Davey Johnson as Dodgers manager in 2001 and went 427-383 (.527) with one playoff appearance in five seasons before being replaced by Grady Little, and then went 135-189 (.417) during two years in Pittsburgh. Of course, being fired twice before is hardly noteworthy for a big-league manager.
Five of the previous dozen Manager of the Year winners were fired within two years of receiving the award and the man who Tracy replaced this season, Clint Hurdle, was let go less than two seasons after taking the Rockies to the World Series in 2007. Hurdle finished third in the Manager of the Year balloting that year, with Bob Melvin of the Diamondbacks winning the award. Melvin was fired 191 games later.
Today the Baseball Writers Association of America handed out their Manager of the Year awards to Mike Scioscia in the AL and Jim Tracy in the NL.
Tracy received 29 of 32 first-place votes after taking over a last-place Rockies team from Clint Hurdle in mid-May and managing them to the Wild Card spot with a 74-42 record.
Scioscia was first on 15 ballots, second on 10 ballots, and received one third-place vote after leading the Angels to 90-plus wins and the AL West title for the fifth time in the last six seasons despite Nick Adenhart's tragic death in April.
Scioscia previously won the award in the Angels' championship 2002 season, while Tracy finished second in 2001, fourth in 2002, and third in 2004 as Dodgers manager. Also of note is that Ron Gardenhire finished second for the fifth time in eight years as Twins manager. Apparently the voters look at Minnesota's success in the AL Central and assume that he must have done a good job, but then look at the mediocre win totals in what has typically been a bad division and conclude that it probably wasn't the best job. I'd agree.
Of all the mainstream awards, Manager of the Year is the one I have the most trouble caring about. The BBWAA tends to vote for managers of teams that exceed preseason expectations or managers of teams that narrowly make the playoffs, while often overlooking managers of teams that are simply really, really good. Perhaps not surprisingly of the dozen MoY winners during the previous six seasons, five (Eric Wedge, Tony Pena, Joe Girardi, Bob Melvin, Buck Showalter) were fired within two years of getting the award.
Not only did Zack Greinke claim a victory for statheads everywhere by winning the AL Cy Young yesterday despite only 16 wins, afterward he outed himself as a believer in sabermetrics thanks to stathead teammate Brian Bannister:
I'm also a follower ... of sabermetric stuff and going into details of stats about what you can control. That's pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible.
FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, which is a stat that you'll see me and the rest of the Circling the Bases crew quoting in this space frequently. It attempts to separate pitching from defense by focusing on the things that a pitcher can specifically control: strikeouts, walks, and homers.
Bannister explained that not only has Greinke become a believer in the value of FIP and similar stats, he's actually used them to improve his pitching:
He's extremely bright, and he's really picked up on using all the information out there to make his game better. He's always had the talent. His confidence level, which is extremely high, combined with his knowledge of the numbers behind the game now, definitely makes him one of the best pitchers in the world. David DeJesus had our best zone ratings, so a lot of times, Zack would pitch for a fly ball at our park instead of a ground ball, just because the zone rating was better in our outfield and it was a big park.
Max Scherzer of the Diamondbacks has previously talked about his interest in sabermetrics and modern baseball analysis, so the statheads are building a pretty nice rotation with Greinke, Scherzer, and Bannister. Something to think about the next time you see someone dismiss the impact and value of sabermetrics. We're not all non-athletes who live in our parents' basements. Some of us win Cy Young awards, marry ex-Cowboys cheerleaders, and live ... well, somewhere in Kansas City.
As part of the Kansas City Star's well-done, blowout coverage of Zack Greinke winning the AL Cy Young yesterday, Sam Mellinger put together a list of all the pitchers since 1985 who also won the award in or before their age-25 season.
Greinke joins Dwight Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Barry Zito, Roger Clemens, Johan Santana, and Tim Lincecum in the 25-and-under Cy Young club, which is some pretty interesting company. At least three of those eight guys are headed to the Hall of Fame and five of them won multiple Cy Young awards.
Looking at that list got me curious about what each of those pitchers did after the age of 25, because Greinke actually turned 26 a few weeks ago and ... well, I'm sure everyone is wondering what the future holds for him after such a brilliant season.
I'll leave Lincecum out of the picture because he hasn't actually turned 26 yet, but here's what the other seven 25-and-under Cy Young winners have done from age 26 on:
IP W L WIN% ERA+ CY1 CY3 Roger Clemens 3885 276 150 .648 143 5 8 Tom Glavine 3521 252 151 .625 122 1 5 Pedro Martinez 1915 154 61 .716 160 2 5 Dwight Gooden 1277 75 66 .532 99 0 0 Bret Saberhagen 1234 75 56 .573 123 0 1 Barry Zito 1231 72 77 .483 103 0 0 Johan Santana 1085 79 42 .653 148 1 3
* ERA+ stands for adjusted ERA, which puts pitchers from different years on an even playing field by factoring in run-scoring environments. CY1 stands for Cy Young wins and CY3 stands for top-three finishes.
Martinez, Zito, and Santana get short-changed because they're not done pitching yet, but those numbers are still plenty interesting. Clemens, Glavine, and Martinez all won at least one more Cy Young after the age of 25, combining for eight awards and a total of 18 top-three Cy Young finishes from 26 on. Santana also has a post-25 award and two other top-three finishes, so even with his recent elbow problems he's closer to the Clemens-Glavine-Martinez path than the Saberhagen-Gooden-Zito path.
Which path will Greinke (and Lincecum) follow? It's certainly tempting to assume that he'll go the way of Clemens, Glavine, and Martinez, but it's at least worth noting that most people had similar expectations for Saberhagen and Gooden when they won the award at an even younger age than Greinke. Instead of becoming inner-circle Hall of Famers, they ended up combining for only 147 wins after the age of 26.
This morning Craig discussed the continued uncertainty surrounding whether Joba Chamberlain will start or relieve for the Yankees, but he's not the only pitcher unclear about his role for 2010.
Philadelphia is interested in re-signing Chan Ho Park as a reliever after he thrived in that role this season, but the 36-year-old free agent and longtime starter is also being offered rotation spots elsewhere.
"I want to be a starter again," Park told the Korea Times. "Being a starter is more attractive for me, because I can take over a whole game." Meanwhile, agent Jeff Borris explained that "we're really not shutting the door on any possibilities right now" while noting that multiple teams have expressed interest in Park for both roles.
If he truly wants to be a full-time starter again then Park should sign with a team willing to hand him a rotation spot no questions asked, because this will likely be his last multi-year contract and final chance to dictate his role. However, if he's interested in picking the role in which he's actually most likely to have success there's no question that he should stick to the bullpen.
In his last 34 starts--which is basically equal to one full season in a rotation--Park has gone 9-9 with a 5.05 ERA in 194.1 innings. During that same time period Park made 91 relief appearances, posting a 3.45 ERA in 125 innings. He hasn't had an ERA below 4.80 during any season with double-digit starts since way back in 2001, but Park had a 2.52 ERA out of the Phillies' bullpen this season and posted a 3.84 mark as a reliever last year. Stick to relieving, Chan Ho, you're really good at it.
And he's been saying it for several months according to the New York Post. He was born on and still lives on Staten Island. He likes the ballpark. He's buddies with former Brave and current Met Jeff Francoeur. Makes sense for him.
Does it make sense for the Mets? His late fade in 2009 might give them pause, but Marquis has been a pretty reliable if unspectacular starting pitcher for several years now. You're probably going to get 30+ starts and close to 200 innings of at or around league average quality from him. He's going to induce a ton of ground balls and he's not going to give up many home runs. He'll go through stretches where he gets shelled, sure, but he takes the ball when it's his turn and he can even hit a little.
If you're in on the Joel Piniero and Randy Wolf sweepstakes, you should probably be considering Marquis as well. And if you're the Mets, any and all of them would constitute a massive upgrade from the non-Santana portion of their current rotation.
Forget that Dodgers business, FOX's Ken Rosenthal reported -- at 5:38 this morning, because he's more machine than man -- that the Phillies are the favorite to sign Mark DeRosa. As is often the case, he cites a "Major League source." I'm going to assume that it's either Dorn or Cerrano.
The thinking is that, unlike the teams who see him as a utility option, the Phils have an opening at third and will pay him what he wants: $5-6 million per of a couple of years. Rosenthal also notes that the dude went to college in Philly. Which I considered minor until I remembered that I work in the same city I went to college, so who am I to judge?
Whether DeRosa's wrist can hold up to a full season at third and whether his glove is good enough to give the Phillies no reason to regret passing up Adrian Beltre or someone like him is an open question, but DeRosa probably fits in Philadelphia better than he does with a lot of the other teams who are rumored to be interested.
As for Chamberlain, the Yankees have not yet told him whether he should prepare as a starting pitcher or a reliever . . . The only hints he has received have come from general manager Brian Cashman, who said last week that he envisioned both Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as starters -- but starters who are capable of relieving. "So he didn't really answer the question," Chamberlain cracked.The uncertainty is understandable inasmuch as whether Chamberlain, or to that extent Phil Hughes, needs to start is going to depend on whether Andy Pettite comes back, whether the Yankees sign John Lackey. Or Randy Wolf or Segio Mitre or some other off-brand starter for that matter. If I had to guess I'd say that there will be at most a fifth starter's slot to fill between Hughes and Chamberlain.
His late season struggles aside, I'd be inclined to tap Chamberlain for that role. He looked like he was putting it together around the All-Star break. Then, for reasons that can only be chalked up to the Joba Rules, the Yankees started limiting his innings, messing with his rest and generally treating him like some special case as a starter in August and September. He knew going in to every game that he was going to be yanked before the fifth inning, which had to mess with his preparation and approach. I can't help but think that the problems he had in the second half were due in large part to being jerked around.
And really, he's been jerked around for three years. Give the guy a job. Leave him alone. Allow him to pitch without putting him under the microscope and I have this feeling the Yankees will be pleasantly surprised with what they get.
Bringing in Mark DeRosa and John Smoltz six or seven years ago: a bold move that instantly makes you a favorite. Bringing them in for 2010: Yawn. According to Smoltz's and DeRosa's agent Keith Grunewald, however, the Dodgers are showing interest in both.
Last year the Washington Nationals were in on Mark Teixeira. No one figured they'd get him, but because the guy is from the mid-Atlantic area, there was at least a reason not to openly guffaw at their courtship of the guy. He could have gotten homesick. There was at least a non-zero chance that he'd be interested, even if was a chance that was only microscopically above zero.You have to show the veteran pitcher what the plan is, our plan for success, how we are built to perform at this level at this given time . . . We think with the additions of an Adam Dunn, a Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan, it's going to attract some veteran players. These guys know what we are doing here. It's all over the league where we are at and what we are trying to do. I think they can see this is the beginning of a good, exciting ballclub.If I'm John Lackey's agent and they trot out Adam Dunn I say "John, you sign there and you'll have the absolute worst defensive player in baseball in left or at first." If they trot out Josh Willingham I say "John, they were openly shopping him last week, so even if he floats your boat, don't count on him." If they trot out Nyjer Morgan I'd say "Man, those socks look good, don't they? Morgan is sharp. No reason to turn down the Yankees and Red Sox, but he is sharp."
They'll be announcing both AL and NL Manager of the Year today. Let's break it down scientifically:
Free Agency Preview - Catcher
Free Agency Preview - First base & DH
Free Agency Preview - Second base
Free Agency Preview - Third base
Free Agency Preview - Shortstop
This is part six in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. The outfield is up now.
Matt Holliday (Cardinals) - It was an open question whether CC Sabathia or Mark Teixeira would get the offseason's biggest free agent contract last winter, but there's no doubt who will fare best this time around. Holliday has an MVP award to his credit, he's just 29 and there isn't really a flaw to his game. He's not one of the game's 10 best players, but there's very good reason to think he'll be a true star for a few more years and a fine regular for the duration of his next contract. His suitors figure to come from the usual suspects: the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Angels. Not all of them will be involved, but one or two will likely face off with the Cardinals once the bidding gets serious. Agent Scott Boras may need the Yankees there in the end if the final price tag is going to exceed $120 million for six years, and I'm not sure the Bombers will go that route, even though the money is almost certainly there. Prediction: Red Sox - six years, $120 million
Jason Bay (Red Sox) - Bay outhit Holliday last season, but he's the older player by a year and a half and a much weaker defender. While Holliday should be a solid enough left fielder into his mid-30s, Bay would already by more valuable as a first baseman or a designated hitter now. Of course, he still has a lot to offer. Unlike Holliday, he's proven he can be a force in the American League and he could continue to put up the better power numbers of the two. If the Red Sox could sign him for $60 million for four years, they'd probably lock him up and exit the Holliday chase. It'd make more sense to go to six years for Holliday than five for Bay, though. The Yankees, Angels, Giants and Cardinals could factor in here. Prediction: Angels - five years, $75 million
Johnny Damon (Yankees) - Now 36, Damon has lost most of his defensive value, but he turned in one of his best offensive season in 2009, finishing at .282/.365/.489 with a career high-tying 24 homers. He also came up big in both the ALCS and World Series for the Yankees. Going into the postseason, it was conceivable that the Yankees would offer Damon only a one-year deal to stick around. However, that'd be quite an insult after such a strong campaign, and while Damon would almost certainly prefer to stay with the Bombers, he's certain to get multiyear offers from other clubs, perhaps even the Yankees' crosstown rival. At worst, Damon should get the same kind of two-year, $19 million contract that Bobby Abreu received to remain with the Angels. Prediction: Yankees - two years, $22 million
Hideki Matsui (Yankees) - Bay and Holliday are the only free agents who finished with higher OPSs than Matsui's 876 mark last season, and Matsui, of course, starred again in the postseason, hitting .349 with four homers in 43 at-bats and taking home World Series MVP honors. That's going to be hard to top. Matsui is 35, and he's missed big chunks of two of the last four seasons. His knees may never again allow him to play the outfield on a regular basis. Reports of the Red Sox potentially offering him a four-year deal were ludicrous, but Matsui might land a three-year pact if he's willing to shop himself around. Still, everyone knows that he wants to remain with the Yankees and the Bombers would almost certainly like him back for at least one more year. As with Damon, there's a compromise to be worked out here. Prediction: Yankees - two years, $18 million
Vladimir Guerrero (Angels) - While 2009 was obviously the worst season of his career, Guerrero hit .300/.347/.498 after the break and .378/.425/.541 in nine postseason games, all while always falling short of 100 percent physically. Considering that he suffered a torn pectoral muscle in April, it was impressive that he came back as well as he did. If Guerrero could still play the outfield on a regular basis, a three-year deal in excess of $10 million per season would be fitting. As a full-time DH, though, he'd hardly seem worthy of such a commitment. If he wants to remain on the West Coast, he needs to hope the Giants or A's get involved, since the Angels seem to want to go in a different direction. Otherwise, Texas would make a ton of sense. Prediction: Rangers - two years, $18 million
Mike Cameron (Brewers) - Cameron gave the Brewers plenty of value for their $16.25 million over the last two seasons, yet GM Doug Melvin nearly traded him for Melky Cabrera a year ago and was quick to rule him out of the team's 2010 plans this winter when he traded J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez earlier this month. Unfortunately for Cameron, the teams currently desperate for center field help -- the White Sox, Royals and Padres -- have tight payroll restrictions this winter. The Cubs have a need, but it's doubtful that they'll value him properly. Perhaps the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets could look at him if other plans go awry, but I'm lacking a good guess on where he might end up. He may not get the two-year, $20 million deal he deserves. Prediction: Braves - one year, $8 million
Jermaine Dye (White Sox) - Dye was an MVP candidate for three months last season, hitting .302/.375/.567 with 22 homers before the break. However, the word collapse is hardly strong enough for what followed. Dye hit just .179/.293/.297 the rest of the way to finish with a sub-800 OPS for the first time since 2004. Dye can probably bounce back a bit offensively at age 36, but he's a hideous defender at this point and he's always come up short in big situations. It'd be crazy to give him more than a one-year deal. I'm guessing he lands in San Francisco or Texas. Prediction: Giants - one year, $8 million
Marlon Byrd (Rangers) - Byrd's case now looks a lot like Gary Matthews Jr.'s did three years ago before he secured a five-year, $50 million contract with the Angels: journeyman part-time center fielder heads to Texas, gets nice boost from hitter friendly ballpark and grows into full-time role just in time for free agency. Like Matthews three years ago, Byrd is 32 now. He doesn't have Matthews' defensive reputation, but he has been the more consistent hitter of the two. Of course, Byrd isn't going to get a five-year deal; the market has changed since 2007 and so many other center fielders have been busts after getting long-term contracts. Byrd, though, might get three years. The Cubs would like him if they could move Milton Bradley, and the Giants have a history of targeting players like Byrd. Prediction: White Sox - three years, $20 million
Rick Ankiel (Cardinals) - In theory, Ankiel is the one free agent outfielder whose best years are still ahead of him. The former pitcher would have been set up for a big long-term deal had he matched his .264/.337/.506 line from 2008 last season. However, he slipped all of the way to .231/.285/.387 in a season riddled with injuries. Ankiel still hasn't proven he can stay healthy for a full season, and he does have holes in his swing. Also, he's probably not a long-term option in center field. Odds are that he'll accept a one-year contract in an attempt to rebuild his value. The Jays, White Sox, Padres, Pirates and Marlins are some of the teams that may look to gamble on him. Prediction: Marlins - one year, $4 million
Coco Crisp (Royals) - Crisp got off to an excellent start as Kansas City's leadoff hitter and center fielder before his shoulder started bothering him. His play quickly fell off, and he ended up undergoing season-ending surgery for a torn labrum in June. Crisp should be ready to play next season, and he could turn out to be a bargain. He's one of the few legitimate leadoff options available, and he'll probably be an above average defender for a couple of more years anyway. Prediction: Padres - one year, $4 million
Xavier Nady (Yankees) - It's not a lock, but Nady will probably be ready for Opening Day following Tommy John surgery in July. It'd help if he signed as a first baseman, since he wouldn't have to make any long throws, but there figures to be more interest in him as an outfielder. Nady was supposed to start over Nick Swisher for the Yankees last season after hitting .305/.357/.510 in 2008. There will probably be a few teams interested in him as a regular, and the Cardinals have already let him know they like him. Prediction: Cardinals - one year, $3 million
Randy Winn (Giants) - With his 790 OPSs and excellent defense in right field, Winn was a fine regular for the Giants in 2007 and 2008. Unfortunately, he fell all of the way to .262/.318/.353 last season and the Giants have decided to go in a different direction now. Winn may well be an adequate regular in center field for another year or two, but given that he hasn't played that position regularly since 2004, it's hard to imagine any team signing him as a starter there. The contenders figure to view him as more of a fourth outfielder. Prediction: Mariners - one year, $2.5 million
Other free agents: Austin Kearns (Nationals), Marcus Thames (Tigers), Andruw Jones (Rangers), Scott Podsednik (White Sox), Rocco Baldelli (Red Sox), Reed Johnson (Cubs), Endy Chavez (Mariners), Gary Sheffield (Mets), Fernando Tatis (Mets), Brian Giles (Padres), Eric Hinske (Yankees), Frank Catalanotto (Brewers), Garret Anderson (Braves), Matt Stairs (Phillies), Chris Duncan (Red Sox), Jason Michaels (Astros), Darin Erstad (Astros), Chris Denorfia (Athletics), Corey Patterson (Brewers), Wily Mo Pena (Mets), Jeff Fiorentino (Orioles), Bobby Kielty (Mets), Craig Monroe (Pirates), Jeff Salazar (Pirates), Alex Romero (Diamondbacks), David Dellucci (Blue Jays), Emil Brown (Mets), Jacque Jones (Reds), Darnell McDonald (Reds), Chris Burke (Padres), Joey Gathright (Red Sox), Brent Clevlen (Tigers), Bobby Scales (Cubs), Freddy Guzman (Yankees), Drew Macias (Padres), Jerry Owens (Mariners), Russ Adams (Padres)
The first eight players here all look like $2 million players to me. Kearns and Baldelli offer considerable upside. Andruw and Sheffield showed last season that they still have something to offer, even if they're no longer capable of getting it done for six months at a time. Thames, Johnson and Chavez are fine role players. As for Podsednik, well, I'd avoid him entirely, but he may well get the biggest contract of the bunch.
Giles, one of the NL's best outfielders in 2008, was such a disaster during the first 2 1/2 months of last season that the Padres wrote him off for the rest of the year. He turns 39 in January, but he deserves one more chance. Maybe the A's will give it to him. ... Pity the fans of the team that signs Anderson to play regularly. He was a big liability offensively and defensively for the Braves last season, and there's just no reason to prefer him to someone like Hinske or Duncan, neither of whom are likely to be regulars themselves.
Trade candidates: Carl Crawford (Rays), B.J. Upton (Rays), Curtis Granderson (Tigers), Adam Dunn (Nationals), Josh Willingham (Nationals), Brad Hawpe (Rockies), Carlos Lee (Astros - NTC), Ryan Ludwick (Cardinals), David DeJesus (Royals), Corey Hart (Brewers), Chris Young (Diamondbacks), Delmon Young (Twins), Luke Scott (Orioles), Melky Cabrera (Yankees), David Murphy (Rangers), Jonny Gomes (Reds), Chris Dickerson (Reds), Ryan Spilborghs (Rockies), Milton Bradley (Cubs), Pat Burrell (Rays), Vernon Wells (Blue Jays - NTC), Aaron Rowand (Giants - limited NTC), Juan Pierre (Dodgers - limited NTC), Conor Jackson (Diamondbacks), Matt Joyce (Rays), Felix Pie (Orioles), Josh Reddick (Red Sox), Jeremy Hermida (Red Sox), Jack Cust (Athletics), Ryan Sweeney (Athletics), Travis Buck (Athletics), Eric Patterson (Athletics), Willie Harris (Nationals), Ryan Church (Braves), Wilkin Ramirez (Tigers), John Bowker (Giants), Fred Lewis (Giants), Brandon Moss (Pirates), Tony Gwynn Jr. (Padres), Eric Byrnes (Diamondbacks - NTC), Gary Matthews Jr. (Angels - limited NTC), Jose Guillen (Royals), Willy Taveras (Reds), John Mayberry Jr. (Phillies), Reggie Willits (Angels), Terry Evans (Angels), Matt Murton (Rockies), Clete Thomas (Tigers), Trevor Crowe (Indians), Xavier Paul (Dodgers), Wladimir Balentien (Reds), Brandon Jones (Braves), Brian Barton (Braves), Gregor Blanco (Braves), Joe Mather (Cardinals), Nick Stavinoha (Cardinals), Brandon Boggs (Rangers), Craig Gentry (Rangers), Roger Bernadina (Nationals), Casper Wells (Tigers), Luis Durango (Padres)
Yeah, that's a lot of names. I doubt Crawford, Upton, Dunn or Lee is going anywhere. Granderson might, but the mediocre market for center fielders makes it less likely. Of the bigger names, Hawpe appears to be the best bet to depart. The Rockies have four major league outfielders without him, and they could use the extra cash. Hawpe is due $7.5 million next season. ... It appeared that the Twins decided on their outfield when they sent Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy. Young, though, may yet be available if his improvement at the end of the season creates any serious suitors. The Twins could vastly upgrade their outfield defense by moving Young and signing a Cameron or a Crisp to play center.
The A's have to decide which outfielders are keepers from a group that includes Scott Hairston, Rajai Davis, Cust, Sweeney, Buck, Patterson and Aaron Cunningham. If the season started tomorrow, they'd probably have Hairtson in left, Davis in center, Sweeney in right and Cust at DH. However, they may want to upgrade at one of those spots. I'd be surprised if Buck isn't dealt. ... Byrnes and Tavaras look like candidates to be released if the Diamondbacks and Reds can't shed portions of their contracts in trades.
Non-tender candidates: Jack Cust (Athletics), Conor Jackson (Diamondbacks), Ryan Church (Braves), Jody Gerut (Brewers), Gabe Gross (Rays), Alfredo Amezaga (Marlins), Matt Murton (Rockies), Brian Anderson (Red Sox), Cory Sullivan (Mets), Jeremy Reed (Mets), Mike Morse (Nationals), Laynce Nix (Reds), Josh Anderson (Royals), Mitch Maier (Royals), Lou Montanez (Orioles), Jason Repko (Dodgers), Ryan Langerhans (Mariners), Alejandro De Aza (White Sox), Jason Pridie (Twins), Justin Ruggiano (Rays), Don Kelly (Tigers), Yordany Ramirez (Astros)
Cust probably bought himself another year by rebounding to hit .250/.399/.426 after the All-Star break. Still, he's due $4 million or so in arbitration and it's doubtful that he'd earn any more than that as a free agent. ... Jackson, who needed to prove he's healthy in order to guarantee his spot with the Diamondbacks, is currently batting .425 in 73 at-bats in the Dominican Winter League. He should be back as Arizona's starting left fielder. ... The Braves will likely seek an upgrade from Church. He'd probably earn a bit over $3 million in arbitration.
2010-11 free agents: Carl Crawford (Rays), Manny Ramirez (Dodgers), Jayson Werth (Phillies), Adam Dunn (Nationals), Brad Hawpe (Rockies)*, Jason Kubel (Twins)*, David DeJesus (Royals)*, Magglio Ordonez (Tigers)*, Pat Burrell (Rays), Jose Guillen (Royals), Eric Byrnes (Diamondbacks), Willie Harris (Nationals), Jody Gerut (Brewers), Willy Taveras (Reds), Alfredo Amezaga (Marlins), Willie Bloomquist (Royals), Mark Kotsay (White Sox), Gabe Kapler (Rays)
2011 options: Hawpe - $10 million ($500,000 buyout, voidable if traded), Kubel - $5.25 million ($350,000 buyout), DeJesus - $6 million ($500,000 buyout), Ordonez - $15 million (vests with 540 PA or 135 games started)
2011-12 free agents: Grady Sizemore (Indians)*, Carlos Beltran (Mets), Shane Victorino (Phillies), J.D. Drew (Red Sox), Vernon Wells (Blue Jays)*, Nate McLouth (Braves)*, Nick Swisher (Yankees)*, Michael Cuddyer (Twins), Corey Hart (Brewers), Raul Ibanez (Phillies), Bobby Abreu (Angels)*, Conor Jackson (Diamondbacks), Ryan Ludwick (Cardinals), Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs), Carlos Guillen (Tigers), Milton Bradley (Cubs), Juan Rivera (Angels), Josh Willingham (Nationals), Jeremy Hermida (Red Sox), Scott Hairston (Athletics), Jeff Francoeur (Mets), Cody Ross (Marlins), Ryan Church (Braves), Jonny Gomes (Reds), Juan Pierre (Dodgers), Jack Cust (Athletics), Matt Diaz (Braves), Gabe Gross (Rays), Gary Matthews Jr. (Angels), Cory Sullivan (Mets), Jeremy Reed (Mets), Ryan Langerhans (Mariners), Laynce Nix (Reds)
2012 options: Sizemore - $8.5 million ($500,000 buyout), Wells - $63 million player option for 2012-14, McLouth - $10.65 million ($1.25 million buyout), Swisher - $10.25 million ($1 million buyout), Abreu - $9 million vesting option ($1 million buyout)
Steve Kornacki of Booth Newspapers was the lone writer to give Justin Verlander a first-place vote in the AL Cy Young balloting announced Tuesday. The decision didn't cost Zack Greinke a unanimous selection -- Felix Hernandez claimed two first-place votes -- but it did move Verlander past CC Sabathia into third place in the voting.
Kornacki defended his decision in a blog entry, though he hardly built much of a case:
Verlander received my first-place vote because nobody was tougher on the mound with the season on the line for his team.
Verlander threw at least 120 pitches in six of his last eight outings and won his last three starts, forcing a one-game playoff against the Minnesota Twins with his final victory.He was an inspirational 'horse,' using Tigers manager Jim Leyland's term for him, on a fading team.
Kornacki is never foolish enough to come out and say that Verlander was the AL's best pitcher. He knows it's not true. Instead, he's trying to use the typical MVP argument for an award that is simply meant to honor the league's top performer.
Verlander was exceptional for the Tigers down the stretch, and it is admirable that he maintained his performance with such a heavy workload. Still, it's not a point in his favor that he has so many 120-pitch outings. Verlander just isn't equipped to record quick outs.
So, Verlander won his last three starts. He lost the two before that. His ERA actually bottomed out in late July. He was 7-4 with a 3.94 ERA over the final two months. That's impressive, but not exactly dominant.
Overall, Verlander finished with a 3.45 ERA in 240 innings. He had a terrific season, and the Tigers certainly wouldn't have been in the race without him. He wasn't, though, the AL's best pitcher in any way, shape or form. Kornacki deserves plenty of flak for picking him.
A source told FOXSports.com that the Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, Mariners, Astros, Rangers and Orioles have expressed early interest in free agent John Smoltz.
That there are three AL clubs in the group of seven teams is a bit of a surprise. It figured that the interest in Smoltz would be mostly concentrated among NL teams, given that Smoltz went 2-5 with an 8.32 ERA in eight starts for the Red Sox last season. He was 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA in seven starts for St. Louis.
The report indicates that Smoltz is open to the possibility of returning to closing duties next year. That may just be an effort to give him more bargaining power, though. Smoltz has always preferred starting, and he seems more likely to hold up physically working every five or six days than he would given a reliever's workload. Plus, it's a lot easier to sneak in a round of golf when you know exactly when you'll be pitching.
So, while Smoltz will weigh all offers, his best chance of adding to his Cooperstown resume would come as a starter in the National League. A return to St. Louis would make a lot of sense, given pitching coach Dave Duncan's track record with veteran starters. The Dodgers, Cubs and Brewers could use him as well.
Sure, $1.25 million is barely a drop in the bucket for the Bombers, but why spend it if you don't have to?
The Yankees on Tuesday declined Sergio Mitre's $1.25 million option for 2010, but did so while retaining the 28-year-old's rights for 2009. That's because Mitre is short of the six years of service time he'd need for free agency.
Mitre is now eligible for arbitration, and it's unlikely that he'll be able to ask for more than $1 million after going 3-3 with a 6.79 ERA in nine starts and three relief appearances in his return from Tommy John surgery last season. The right-hander has a career ERA of 5.56 in 61 starts and 29 relief appearance.
If Mitre isn't willing to accept a modest one-year deal, the Yankees could always non-tender him next month. But it's more likely that they'll keep him around and settle on a contract closer to arbitration season. He should enter spring training no higher than sixth or seventh on the rotation depth chart, so he'll have a fight on his hands if he's going to make the team as a middle reliever.
* General manager Ed Wade said that the Astros "are not prepared to close any doors with" free agent Miguel Tejada, but Brian McTaggart of MLB.com speculates that the 35-year-old may asked to move from shortstop to third base if he re-signs.
* Scott Olsen is feeling good following season-ending shoulder surgery, but the Nationals may decide to cut him loose rather than take him to arbitration. Olsen showed a lot of promise as a 22-year-old rookie in 2006, but has gone just 20-30 with a 5.10 ERA in 77 starts since.
* As if Zack Greinke winning the AL Cy Young wasn't enough good news for one day, the Royals have reportedly been picked over the Red Sox to host the All-Star game in 2012. If you're curious, that's the final season of Greinke's contract.
* Unfortunately the news isn't all good for Greinke and company, as The Onion reports: "Kansas City Fails To Pick Up Option On Royals."
Zack Greinke took home his first Cy Young award this afternoon, receiving 25 of 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was second on the other three ballots.
Of the three first-place votes not given to Greinke, two went to Felix Hernandez and one went to Justin Verlander. Greinke should have been a unanimous selection, because he was clearly the best pitcher in the league, but Hernandez was at least great enough that a pair of voters putting him atop their ballot isn't completely absurd.
However, one of the 28 professional writers picked to vote for the league's best pitcher choosing Verlander is silly and not surprisingly it was Steve Kornacki of Booth Newspapers in Michigan. Verlander is an excellent pitcher who had an outstanding year, and surely Kornacki would tout his AL-leading 240 innings and 19 wins. Of course, if given anything resembling a decent supporting cast Greinke would have surpassed 19 wins and he logged just 11 fewer than innings than Verlander ... while allowing 35 fewer runs.
Greinke had a 2.16 ERA in 229 innings. Verlander had a 3.45 ERA in 240 innings. Unless you're misguidedly still focusing on win-loss records as the sole means to evaluate pitchers or you're simply a huge Tigers fan (or a reporter paid to cover the Tigers), there's really no way to justify giving Verlander a first-place vote. He wasn't better than Hernandez or Roy Halladay, let alone Greinke. Whatever the case, the real story should obviously be Greinke rather than some writer in Detroit deciding to give Verlander an undeserved vote.
Kansas City's ace had an amazing season for a terrible team, posting the lowest ERA of any American League starter since Pedro Martinez in 2000 and the best mark of the past 20 years from someone other than Pedro or Roger Clemens. He started the season by going 6-0 with a 0.40 ERA, finished it by going 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA, and in between put well-chronicled off-field issues as well as some on-field struggles behind him to establish himself as the league's best pitcher at the age of 25.
By declining Alex Gonzalez's option for next season the Red Sox moved Jed Lowrie back atop their shortstop depth chart for now, but Peter Gammons of ESPN.com reports that "it is clear they want Lowrie to play at Pawtucket, make up for what amounts to a lost season, and prove that his wrist will hold up."
Gammons speculates that the Red Sox could look to re-sign Gonzalez for less than the $6 million option, go after another low-cost, short-term veteran like Omar Vizquel, or perhaps make a serious run at free agent Marco Scutaro, although his Type A status would cost them a first-round draft pick.
Prior to his wrist injury Lowrie had emerged as the Red Sox's starting shortstop after hitting .258/.339/.400 with good defense as a 24-year-old rookie in 2008, but he appeared in just 32 games this season while batting .147. Counting on him to be the full-time starter again in 2010 is perhaps more of a risk than the Red Sox are willing to take, but clearly if he's healthy Lowrie won't be at Triple-A or on the bench for long.
All of which makes me think that they'll go short term (Gonzalez, Vizquel, etc.) rather than make a multi-year commitment to someone like Scutaro. Of course, if reports about the Red Sox's interest in J.J. Hardy are accurate they were certainly willing to make a multi-year commitment to him at shortstop. Boston reportedly offered Michael Bowden to Milwaukee in exchange for Hardy, but balked when the counteroffer was Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard. Hardy ended up being dealt to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez.
General manager Tony Reagins has shot down a FOXSports.com report claiming that the Angels are among three AL teams seriously pursuing free agent Matt Holliday, saying: "He's a talented player, but our focus is not on him right now."
The assumption, of course, is that Reagins' focus is on re-signing John Lackey and/or Chone Figgins after already locking up fellow free agent Bobby Abreu to a multi-year deal. "I know where both of them stand, but as free-agent players they have earned the right to see what their value is," Reagins said.
Interestingly, the FOXSports.com report that Reagins responded to was the same Jon Paul Morosi article that I made note of yesterday. My attention stemmed from Morosi reporting that "the Yankees, who need a left fielder, are interested" in Holliday, which completely contradicted a report by Buster Olney of ESPN.com claiming that the Yankees "are not interested in signing Holliday" because "corner outfield is not a priority for them."
Morosi suggested that Holliday was unlikely to re-sign with the Cardinals and would instead end up in the AL. He mentioned three AL teams as being heavily in the mix, but Olney disagreed with the Yankees' inclusion on that list and the Angels' general manager himself issued a denial about their interest. That leaves the Red Sox, which either means that Boston is now the most likely AL destination for Holliday or Morosi was just throwing a bunch of stuff out there to see what would stick.
Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for AL Cy Young, but first here's how my ballot would look:
1. Zack Greinke, Kansas City
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle
3. Roy Halladay, Toronto
4. Justin Verlander, Detroit
5. CC Sabathia, New York
Zack Greinke was the best pitcher in the American League this season, but because some people misguidedly still focus on win-loss records to evaluate such things you can blame his Royals teammates when it's not a unanimous vote.
Greinke's league-leading 2.16 ERA is the AL's lowest since Pedro Martinez in 2000, and over the past 20 years only Martinez and Roger Clemens have a better mark. Greinke also ranked among the league's top three in opponents' batting average, OPS against, strikeouts, strikeout-to-walk ratio, complete games, and shutouts while throwing 229 innings, so the fact that he was "only" 16-8 with little offensive, defensive, or bullpen support from a team that was 49-89 when he didn't get the decision is hardly important.
Consider that in his losses and no-decisions Greinke went 0-8 in 17 starts despite posting a 3.34 ERA that would have ranked fourth in the league ahead of CC Sabathia at 3.37 and Justin Verlander at 3.45. He lost twice when giving up one run and got stuck with no-decisions six times when he allowed two or fewer runs, including once when he tossed seven shutout innings. Give him better teammates and Greinke wins 20 games, but that doesn't change how well he pitched.
In many seasons Felix Hernandez's performance would have been worthy of the award, because 239 innings of a 2.49 ERA is damn impressive. However, he allowed 17 more runs than Greinke in just nine more innings, and also benefited from a vastly superior defense and pitcher-friendly ballpark. Roy Halladay also had a Cy Young-caliber season with a 2.79 ERA in 239 innings, and then there's a pretty clear gap between the Greinke-Hernandez-Halladay trio and the next tier that includes Verlander and Sabathia.
Or at least there should be. In terms of runs saved compared to a replacement-level pitcher--that is, the caliber of arms readily available at Triple-A--Greinke was worth 88 runs, followed by Hernandez at 75 and Halladay at 74. Verlander was fourth at 61, with Sabathia and Jon Lester tied for fifth at 55. When the actual ballots are revealed later today there's no doubt that Verlander and Sabathia will claim plenty of top-three votes, but that has far more to do with their 19 wins than their actual pitching.
The Twins have a new house, so they have to have new clothes. The duds Mr. Span is wearing to the right are actually the new throwback alternates, which everyone (Span included) thinks look better than the actual new homies. They'll only be worn at home on Opening Day and on Saturdays, but if the Twins truly want to look sharp, they'll make those the new regular home uniforms and make the other ones -- these guys -- the alternates. Sure, they're throwbacks, but they're classic looking as opposed to gimmicky. The Twins never looked better than when they wore those things, and they should wear them all the time now.
They also have new road uniforms which, while looking a little Nationals-esque to me, mercifully eliminate the pinstripes, which look truly wretched on gray. In fact, I'd consider an argument that pinstripes looks wretched on everyone except the Yankees, but that's best saved for another day.
Also gone -- well, mostly gone -- are the "M" hats. They'll still be worn (read: marketed) as an alternate, but the "TC" logo will reign supreme both at home and on the road as God and nature intended. The "TC" is choice and never should have been abandoned in the first place.
Sadly, however, Minnesota still insists on having a solid blue alternate jersey, which looks simply terrible. In fact, if I were made commissioner for a day, the first thing I'd do would be to ban the wearing of solid jerseys that don't match the pants. It looks like softball.
Ken Rosenthal talked to Pedro Martinez's agent who says that Pedro is "absolutely" coming back, that he feels "rejuvenated" and that this time he wants to pitch all season, not just be a mid-season rental.
This is great in the sense that Pedro Martinez is awesome and is great to have around baseball for all kinds of intangible and historical reasons.
This is not so great in the sense that Pedro's best starts in the post season came on 16 and 12 days rest, and that he got beat up and looked to have absolutely nothing in the tank for Game Six of the World Series, which he pitched on five days rest. Also, it's worth noting that his two best starts of the regular season came against the punchless Mets and Giants, none of his nine regular season starts came against a playoff team, and seven of his nine starts came against teams that were at or below league average for offense in the NL.
None of which is to say that taking a chance on Martinez is a bad move. But if you do take a chance, you'd be well-advised not to stake your season on a healthy and productive Pedro.
Not a terribly notable one, though. It's Hisanori Takahashi, a 34 year-old lefty from the Yomiuri Giants who has declared free agency and wants to pitch in U.S..
The only things I could find out about the guy is that (a) he had a couple of decent years as a starter a few years ago; (b) he has been a swingman since then; (c) he got roughed up in his last outing in the Japan Series; and (d) he "got a Yomiuri batter's foul ball on his face in his bench on a day the first half of 2006 and he got out of games." Yes, that last bit came via a blog post that was translated from Japanese. If someone has an English language scouting report on this guy, they dug really really deep to find it.
Because he's a lefty there will probably always be a place for a fellow like Takahashi, though given his resume and his age, his posting fee probably won't buy you fare from Shinjuku to Moto-yawata on the leaf green line of the Toei.
Wait, what?
(photo via a Creative Commons license via Flickr)
The Mets could use a pitcher -- they could use a lot of things actually -- and according to Adam Rubin of the Daily News, they are seriously interested in free agent Joel Piniero.
This should be a no-brainer. The only reason -- and it's not a good reason -- that anyone would not have Zack Greinke listed #1 on their ballot is because they don't think his 16 wins for an awful team are worth the 19 wins CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander posted for good teams.
Annoyingly, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi have been doing a blog that's not a blog for FOXSports. Rosenthal is the best in the biz at putting legitimate rumors out there, but FOX has made it more and more difficult to access his latest tidbits, with too much content that doesn't carry over to RSS and nothing being carried over to twitter. FOX just wants people checking the website at random intervals, apparently.
Also, in many cases, there's no way to tell what is written by Rosenthal and what comes from Morosi, who simply doesn't have Rosenthal's track record in this game. That's not a knock on Morosi, but it's a ridiculous call from FOX and it's incredible that Rosenthal puts up with it.
OK, enough complaining. Let's check out the latest to see what Rosenthal, or perhaps Morosi, has for us:
*The Mariners have discussed Edwin Jackson with the Tigers and also like center fielder Curtis Granderson, though talks "are not all that serious," according to FOXSports.com's source.
The Tigers have way too much money tied up in horrible contracts and may choose to move Jackson, who is due $5 million-$6 million in arbitration and is two years away from free agency. Granderson is less likely to go, particularly to the Mariners, who already have an excellent center fielder in Franklin Gutierrez.
The report mentions right-handers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley as possibilities for the Tigers in a Jackson trade. Detroit would insist on more than those two, though. Morrow still hasn't made it as a closer or a starter, and Kelley is probably a setup man at best.
The Tigers are in need of a closer and could well target David Aardsma instead. Aardsma likely has more trade value than Morrow and Kelley combined, and the Mariners have the potential to cobble together a pretty good bullpen without him, particularly with top prospect Phillip Aumont on the way. Aumont is another pitcher the Tigers are surely asking about in return for Jackson, though he'd be hard to pry away.
Aardsma and a second-tier prospect for Jackson may well make sense for both teams. The Tigers would get a closer who is under control for three more years and save some money in the process. The Mariners would win from a talent standpoint.
*Agent Bean Stringfellow said the Red Sox, Braves, Nationals, Astros and Orioles are five of the eight clubs currently showing interest in free agent Billy Wagner.
That's awfully straight-forward talk from Stringfellow, but of the five teams mentioned, only the Astros come as much of a surprise. It seems unlikely that they'll come up with the cash to bring Wagner back to Houston. Atlanta, Washington and Baltimore all have to be rather appealing to Wagner from a location standpoint. The Virginia native likely would prefer to remain on the East Coast, and he'll have the opportunity to do so.
There's been talk of Wagner potentially accepting arbitration and staying with the Red Sox, but it's highly unlikely that he'll go that route. He'll get a fair amount of cash and a guaranteed deal as a free agent. If he accepted arbitration, perhaps he could get a higher salary on a one-year deal, but it wouldn't be in the form of a guaranteed contract. If he struggles or gets hurt during spring training, the Red Sox could cut him and owe him just one-sixth or one-quarter (depending on the timing) of his salary. The Red Sox are also perhaps the only interested team that wouldn't use him as a closer.
*The Nationals are "drawing strong trade interest" in 30-year-old outfielder Josh Willingham.
The Nats buried Willingham at the beginning of last season, giving him just 35 at-bats in April, but as Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes all faltered, he stepped up and went on to hit .260/.367/.496 with 23 homers in 427 at-bats. That's not out of line with his career 840 OPS. The problem is that he's a big liability in the outfield, and he has a history of back problems.
Washington's current plan is to go with an outfield of Willingham, Nyjer Morgan and Dukes next year, with Adam Dunn at first base. The team has been trying to upgrade its defense, though, and Willingham's departure could help in that regard.
Willingham is due about $5 million next season and is under control for two more years, so he's an attractive piece. The Nationals won't give him away like the Marlins did last year, but they should consider moving him if it'd bring in a legitimate young starting pitcher.
Free Agency Preview - Catcher
Free Agency Preview - First base & DH
Free Agency Preview - Second base
Free Agency Preview - Third base
This is part five in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. Here's the breakdown of the shortstop position.
Marco Scutaro (Blue Jays) - Scutaro, who played mostly second base in the minors, has been cast off by several teams during a career that began in 1996, but at the age of 33, he suddenly emerged as an excellent leadoff hitter and fine defensive shortstop for the Blue Jays. In fact, he was simply too good for Toronto, as he'll likely jump out of the team's price range as the best shortstop available this winter. It does hurt that he's a Type A free agent who is certain to be offered arbitration. Unlike the rest of the free agents here, he'd cost a team like the Red Sox, Tigers or Cubs a first-round pick. Those clubs could target him anyway, and it's possible that the Dodgers and Mets will look at him as a second baseman. Prediction: Red Sox - three years, $18 million
Miguel Tejada (Astros) - Tejada is also a Type A free agent, but the Astros can't risk offering him arbitration when he'd almost certainly take it and command a salary close to the $13 million he earned in 2009. While the 35-year-old hit a respectable .313/.340/.455 last season, he had brutal defensive numbers and likely would be of more use as a third baseman than as a shortstop going forward. It'd be no surprise to see him tumble like Orlando Cabrera did last winter and eventually have to accept a one-year deal in the $4 million range. He'd make sense for the Astros, Twins or Mariners at third base. The White Sox could also consider him if they opt to put Mark Teahen in the outfield. Prediction: Mariners - one year, $4 million
Orlando Cabrera (Twins) - After a dreadful first half, Cabrera rebounded to hit .305/.333/.436 after the break for the A's and Twins. It seemed likely that Minnesota would want him back after his nice finish, but the team has already gone in a different direction by picking up J.J. Hardy. That leaves Boston, Toronto, Detroit, Washington, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh as possible homes for Cabrera. He's slipped defensively, but he's still an adequate shortstop and a solid enough option at the bottom third of a lineup. Prediction: Reds - one year, $4 million
Alex Gonzalez (Red Sox) - The wheels aren't what they used to be, but Gonzalez showed in Boston that he's still as steady as they come defensively. He also performed much better than expected offensively after being picked up in August, coming in at .284/.316/.453 with five homers in 148 at-bats. Gonzalez can't be counted on to put up that kind of line over a full season, but he may well be a better option as a starting shortstop than Tejada or Cabrera at this point. He could stay with Boston or jump to the Blue Jays or Tigers. Prediction: Blue Jays - one year, $2.5 million
Khalil Greene (Cardinals) - If it were just the two awful offensive seasons in a row, Greene would be well worth gambling on. Unfortunately, he was just as bad with the glove as he was with the bat last season and every potential suitor is going to be wondering whether he's still a realistic option at shortstop. Also, there are the psychological issues that put him on the disabled list twice last season. A team with nothing to lose, such as the Pirates, Astros or Nationals, could sign him and hope for the best. He's just 29, and he still has 25-homer power. Prediction: Pirates - one year, $2 million
Other free agents: Adam Everett (Tigers), Craig Counsell (Brewers), Omar Vizquel (Rangers), John McDonald (Blue Jays), Bobby Crosby (Athletics), Omar Quintanilla (Rockies), Juan Castro (Dodgers), Luis Rodriguez (Padres), Cody Ransom (Yankees), Angel Berroa (Mets), Jason Smith (Astros), Ramon Martinez (Mets)
Everett still has a lot to offer defensively, but the annual 600 OPS may see him relegated to backup status this winter. He'd be nice insurance for a team planning to go with an unproven shortstop (Houston and Oakland come to mind). ... Counsell is happy in Milwaukee, and the Brewers have very good reason to bring him back. Expect them to come to an agreement. ... Vizquel is content as a backup, just not in Texas. He could fit with the Red Sox, Mets or Cubs.
Trade candidates: Yunel Escobar (Braves), Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks), Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Reid Brignac (Rays), Chin-Lung Hu (Dodgers), Ramon Santiago (Tigers), Robert Andino (Orioles), Tyler Greene (Cardinals), Alberto Gonzalez (Nationals), Brent Lillibridge (White Sox), Gregorio Petit (Athletics), Trevor Plouffe (Twins)
Escobar and Drew are big long shots to be moved. They'll likely be requested in talks, but neither Atlanta nor Arizona has an internal replacement ready. ... The Nationals are ready to shove Guzman to second base, but if anyone wants to pick him up, they'll certainly listen. They already regret not letting him go when the Red Sox claimed him off waivers in August.
The Rays envisioned Brignac taking over as their shortstop at some point during 2009 or 2010, but he was a modest disappointment and Jason Bartlett has stepped up in a big way. They don't have to move him, but he's clearly expendable. ... The Tigers like Santiago as a part-timer at shortstop and will probably keep him if they go cheap this winter. If they sign a legitimate starter to replace Adam Everett, then Santiago could be dealt.
Non-tender candidates: Ronny Cedeno (Pirates), Augie Ojeda (Diamondbacks), Anderson Hernandez (Mets), Josh Wilson (Mariners), Luis Cruz (Pirates), Luis Hernandez (Royals), Brian Bocock (Giants)
If the Pirates had come up with J.J. Hardy to go along with Akinori Iwamura, than they probably would have moved on from Cedeno. However, the former Cub was adequate after being acquired from the Mariners last season and he's only due $1.2 million or so in arbitration. Odds are that he'll stick around. ... The Diamondbacks won't go to arbitration with Ojeda, but they likely will offer him a one-year deal worth a bit more than the $712,500 he made last season. If he declines, then he'll be let go.
2010-11 free agents: Jose Reyes (Mets)*, Jimmy Rollins (Phillies)*, Derek Jeter (Yankees), Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Julio Lugo (Cardinals)*, Cesar Izturis (Orioles), Nick Punto (Twins)*, Edgar Renteria (Giants)*, Ramon Santiago (Tigers)
2011 options: Reyes - $11 million ($500,000 buyout), Rollins - $8.5 million ($2 million buyout), Lugo - $9 million (vests w/600 PA in 2010), Punto - $5 million ($500,000 buyout), Renteria - $10.5 million ($500,000 buyout),
2011-12 free agents: Jose Reyes (Mets), Jimmy Rollins (Phillies), J.J. Hardy (Twins), Jason Bartlett (Rays), Rafael Furcal (Dodgers)*, Jack Wilson (Mariners), Yuniesky Betancourt (Royals)*, Ronny Cedeno (Pirates), Augie Ojeda (Diamondbacks)
2012 options: Furcal - $12 million (vests w/600 PA in 2011), Betancourt - $6 million ($2 million buyout)
With all of the rumors swirling about budgetary problems potentially forcing a Brandon Phillips deal, some will be surprised that the Reds didn't simply let Ramon Hernandez leave as a free agent. After all, Ryan Hanigan is younger, makes the minimum and was a more effective player than Hernandez last season. The Reds could have simply gone with Hanigan and a cheap backup and saved themselves $2.5 million next year.
Hernandez, though, was worth trying again at the modest $3 million price tag the Reds got him to agree to. Even better, they got a vesting $3.25 million option for 2011 as part of the deal. That option comes without a buyout and doesn't lock in unless Hernandez appears in 120 games.
That's a key factor, because Hernandez won't reach 120 games by accident. He'll only play in 120 games if he both stays healthy and outperforms Hanigan, and if he pulls off both of those feats, then the Reds were almost certainly going to want him back at such a reasonable salary anyway.
And Hernandez is the better bet of the two, if only slightly. Hanigan has a nice track record when it comes to OBP, but it's worth noting that seven of his 37 walks last year were intentional. Take those out of the equation and he's left with a .266/.344/.331 line, compared to Hernandez's .258/.332/.362 mark. Hanigan has never hit for power at any level, and it's also unclear whether he's physically capable of handling the load over a full season. He's never caught more than 100 games in a year as a pro.
For what it's worth, Hernandez has also been more productive over the course of his career than career .262/.327/.417 line suggests. He's spent a lot of time in strong parks for pitchers, and he's been about as clutch as anyone in the game. Over the course of his career, he's hit .241/.307/.397 with the bases empty, .288/.349/.440 with runners on and .287/.357/.453 with RISP. He's 33 now and clearly on the decline, but if the Reds give him a fair amount of rest, he should be good for a dozen homers and his typical .330-.340 OBP.
In case you missed it -- and most everyone did -- the Twins recently engaged in a modestly shady transaction, adding Juan Morillo to their 40-man roster in advance of him becoming a minor league free agent.
It wasn't an unusual move in itself, but the Twins didn't do it with an eye towards having Morillo compete for a job next season. No, they needed to keep the 26-year-old reliever in their organization for a little while longer so that they could lock in a transfer fee for his pending sale to a Japanese team, expected to be the Hanshin Tigers. Holding the player hostage for a little while was just part of the process.
And that's why it's time to end the process. We're long past the days in which MLB teams were needed to broker deals between players and Japanese teams. The clubs in Japan already know which players they're targeting before free agency even hits, and at last check, they weren't serious threats to bring in a Matt Holliday or a John Lackey.
The transfer fees in themselves are largely harmless. Few players are sold for more than $500,000 or so. The Yankees' sale of Darrell Rasner for $1 million last November was the largest fee in years.
The fees, though, did spawn a gentleman's agreement that has no business being a part of baseball. With one very notable exception, teams have declined to interfere with Japanese transfers, even if the player appears to be of some use. There's nothing in the rules that would have stopped the Royals from claiming Rasner off waivers last year and either using him themselves or cutting their own deal with a team in Japan. They didn't because of the agreement in place.
The one time said agreement was violated was when the Red Sox stepped in and blocked Florida's sale of Kevin Millar to the Chunichi Dragons prior to the 2003 season. The Marlins didn't look to trade Millar in order to improve their team, and there's no way they were going to release him. They simply wanted the $1.2 million they were set to receive from the Dragons.
The mess than ensued proved worth it for Boston, even though the Red Sox ended up giving the Marlins $1.5 million on top of what they paid Millar. It was a selfish move for the Red Sox, but it was also clearly in the best interests of the game, not only from a quality of play standpoint -- Millar was, at that point, one of the game's top 15 first basemen -- but also in that it set a precedent; no team has since tried to sell an established, in-demand major leaguer to a Japanese team.
The way I see it, no player should be headed to Japan unless he's a free agent or completely unwanted by all 30 clubs. The gentleman's agreement simply doesn't belong in baseball, and there'd by no need for it at all if transfer fees were abolished. Alternatively, MLB itself could keep the transfer fees, with the entire pool being spread evenly among all 30 teams. Either choice would benefit the players and guarantee that there are no more Millar-type fiascos in MLB's future.
One of the many things that make offseason rumors so frustrating to follow is that even the most respected names in the baseball reporting business often vary wildly on what they're reporting.
Today provides a good example, as Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com writes that "the Yankees, who need a left fielder, are interested" in Matt Holliday while Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes that the Yankees "are not interested in signing Holliday" because "corner outfield not a priority for them."
Two completely contradictory reports about the exact same player coming from two well-sourced, highly respected national reporters on the very same day.
If you choose to believe Morosi, then it's worth noting that his article about Holliday also suggests that he's not particularly loyal to the Cardinals after spending just a few months in St. Louis and is likely to end up with an American League team. In fact, Morosi concludes his lengthy piece by writing: "I'm almost certain that means he will be playing left field for the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angels."
Unless of course Olney's report is actually the correct one, in which case ... well, who knows?
This morning I laid out my Rookie of the Year picks, choosing A's reliever Andrew Bailey in the American League and Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen in the National League.
This afternoon the Baseball Writers Association of America announced their actual selections, agreeing with me on Bailey for the AL award while going with Marlins left fielder Chris Coghlan for the NL honor.
I'm certainly not surprised that the BBWAA tabbed Coghlan, whom I placed third behind McCutchen and Phillies left-hander J.A. Happ. Coghlan led all NL rookies in playing time by logging 565 plate appearances in 128 games, had a .321 batting average, and hit exceptionally well over the final two months.
Ultimately lots of playing time, a big batting average, and a prolonged hot stretch are more than enough to get the BBWAA's votes, because my guess is that not many of the 32 writers who cast ballots cared that Coghlan beat McCutchen by only 14 points of OPS or spent a lot of time factoring in Coghlan's poor defense in left field compared to McCutchen's good defense in center field, let alone making positional adjustments for their offensive production.
Remember, one BBWAA member who covers the Marlins repeatedly described Coghlan's rookie season (which included a relatively modest .850 OPS, nine homers, and just 47 RBIs) as "historic" and last year Edinson Volquez received three second-place votes in the Rookie of the Year balloting when he wasn't even eligible for the award. Baseball analysis has come a long way in recent years, but for 32 beat reporters casting ballots batting averages and headlines still carry the day.
Last week the Reds declined their $8.5 million option on Ramon Hernandez for 2010, choosing to pay him a $1 million buyout instead, but today the two sides agreed to a new one-year deal.
Hernandez will reportedly earn $3 million and the contract also includes a $3.25 million option for 2011 that vests if he appears in 120 games next season. Odds are that it'll end up simply being a one-year, $3 million deal, because he's a 34-year-old catcher who played just 81 games this season due to injuries and has appeared in 120 games just twice in the past six seasons.
Hernandez isn't much of a defensive catcher at this point and saw about one-third of his action at first base before knee surgery ended his season in July, but if healthy he remains productive enough offensively to be worth the modest one-year commitment. He's hit .258/.324/.387 over the past three seasons, including .258/.336/.362 this year, which is right around the .254/.321/.396 line that MLB catchers as a whole produced in 2009.
However, the Reds could have saved $3 million and simply made Ryan Hanigan their starter behind the plate. He's five years younger than Hernandez, significantly better defensively, started 72 games in his absence this season, and has hit .266/.363/.341 through 402 plate appearances in the majors. Hanigan doesn't have as much power as Hernandez, but his glove and on-base skills are significantly better for one-tenth the money.
Having both Hernandez as the starter and Hanigan as the backup obviously isn't exactly a bad thing, but for a team that's supposedly in such a payroll crunch that they may be forced to unload high-priced veterans like Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang a few million bucks certainly could have come in handy. Of course, we already knew that planning ahead isn't exactly the Reds' strong suit.
* Derek Jeter will host Saturday Night Live next month for the second time, with musical guests Jay-Z and Alicia Keys no doubt performing his pre-at-bat song "New York State of Mind."
Jeter dressed in drag to portray Alfonso Soriano's wife when he hosted SNL back in 2001 and several Yankees made cameos, so it should be another interesting show. I'm hoping for a Friday Night Lights/Lyla Garrity skit.
* Fired four days after being named the Diamondbacks' manager in 2004 because of legal and financial problems surfacing, Wally Backman has now been hired to manage a Single-A team in the Mets organization.
* What did you do this weekend? Clay Buchholz got married to a Deal or No Deal model.
* You can find most of the Circling the Bases crew on Twitter:
- Aaron Gleeman: @aarongleeman
- Matthew Pouliot: @matthewpouliot
- Bob Harkins - @bharks
- D.J. Short - @djshort
- Matt Casey - @mattcasey9
Craig Calcaterra isn't on Twitter yet, but once he gets comfortable using a VCR and Walkman we're confident that he'll join.
Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for NL Rookie of the Year, but first here's how my ballot would look:
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
2. J.A. Happ, Philadelphia
3. Chris Coghlan, Florida
4. Tommy Hanson, Atlanta
5. Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh
Honorable mention: Randy Wells, Casey McGehee, Kenshin Kawakami, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, Clay Zavada's mustache
Called up in early June, Andrew McCutchen started 108 of the final 109 games for the Pirates and batted .286/.365/.471 with 47 extra-base hits and 22 steals while playing solid defense in center field.
Chris Coghlan was slightly better than McCutchen at the plate, hitting .321/.390/.460 in 128 games, but did so while playing left field and playing it badly. McCutchen's bat was actually 11 percent better than the average center fielder, whereas Coghlan's bat was just 10 percent better than the average left fielder. Toss in McCutchen's massive edge defensively plus his extra value on the bases and he clearly had more overall value.
Of course, on a per-plate appearance basis Garrett Jones was the best rookie hitter in the league, batting .293/.372/.567 with 21 homers and 21 doubles in 358 trips to the plate. Had he played enough to qualify for the NL leaderboards Jones would've ranked sixth in slugging percentage, eighth in at-bats per homer, and ninth in OPS. He was amazing, but playing just 82 of 162 games keeps him from ranking higher on my ballot.
J.A. Happ began this season in the Phillies' bullpen, where he had a 2.49 ERA and .184 opponents' batting average in 22 innings. He shifted to the rotation in mid-May and stayed there for the remainder of the year, going 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 144 innings spread over 23 starts. Happ excelled in multiple roles, led the league with two shutouts, led all rookies with 166 innings, and went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA.
Tommy Hanson is sort of the Jones of rookie pitchers, because he was fantastic while going 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA, but logged only 128 innings. In addition to Happ posting a nearly identical ERA in 30 percent more innings, Randy Wells of the Cubs had a 3.05 ERA in 165 innings. In terms of most impressive rookies Hanson has an argument for the top spot, but in terms of most valuable rookies it's tough to make that case.
Later today the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their choice for AL Rookie of the Year, but first here's how my ballot would look:
1. Andrew Bailey, Oakland
2. Elvis Andrus, Texas
3. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay
4. Gordon Beckham, Chicago
5. Rick Porcello, Detroit
Honorable mention: Brett Anderson, Ricky Romero, Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters
I'm not all that keen on giving the award to a reliever, but Andrew Bailey was arguably the best relief pitcher in the entire American League this season. He went 6-3 and converted 26-of-30 saves with a 1.84 ERA and 91/25 K/BB ratio in 83 innings.
Among relievers with at least 60 innings Bailey led the league in opponents' batting average (.167) and WHIP (0.88) while ranking second in ERA behind only Mariano Rivera. Bailey wasn't on the field as much as the other top candidates, but he dominated like no other rookie, his 83 innings were the third-most of any AL reliever, and his outings came in higher-leverage situations than the rookie starters.
Gordon Beckham will almost surely get the most votes among position players because his raw offensive numbers are the best, but Elvis Andrus had a more valuable rookie campaign. Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 with seven steals, which made him five percent above average at third base. Andrus hit .267/.329/.373 with 33 steals, which made him almost exactly average at shortstop.
Beckham was slightly better than Andrus relative to their positions, but that edge quickly vanishes when you consider that Andrus had 25 percent more plate appearances and played spectacular defense at shortstop. I'll take 541 plate appearances of average offense and great defense at an up-the-middle position over 430 plate appearances of slightly above average offense and average defense at a corner spot.
This season featured a high number of rookie starting pitchers making impacts, but Jeff Niemann stood out by going 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA and 125/59 K/BB ratio in 181 innings. Five rookies logged at least 150 innings, and Niemann had the biggest workload and a lower ERA than Ricky Romero, Rick Porcello, Brett Anderson, and Trevor Cahill. Niemann also tied for third in the AL with two complete-game shutouts, behind only Roy Halladay and Zack Greinke.
Last week Bob told us all about "Camp Panda," the intensive conditioning regimen for the Giants' portly slugger Pablo Sandoval. Fresh details today from the San Francisco Chronicle:
With a host of others, including Giants head trainer Dave Groeschner and strength and conditioning coordinator Ben Potenziano, infielder Pablo Sandoval climbed Phoenix's Camelback Mountain on Thursday, 54 minutes up, 38 minutes down, and thought he was done for the day.Lucky he got the panda nickname first, because otherwise there'd be no way he'd avoid being called poopy-pants for the rest of his career.Then, Potenziano gave him the bad news: another weightlifting circuit and 30 more minutes of cardio.
"He was a little poopy-pants the rest of the afternoon," Potenziano said. "He wasn't his happy self."
Beyond that, however, it's a fascinating read. The extent to which the Sandoval and the Giants are working on his diet and putting his body through the wringer is impressive. How many times have you wondered what would have happened if a guy like Mo Vaughn or Kevin Mitchell or Dimitri Young had taken care of themselves? With Sandoval, we're going to get to see it.
That is, if he can keep up the discipline as he heads down to his native Venezuela for winter ball. His trainer is a bit worried:
As Potenziano said, Sandoval is an "icon" in his home country, where people will tackle each other to provide him food and drink.That includes Sandoval's family. Potenziano has urged [Sandoval's brother] Michael to "attack their mom" to make sure she prepares healthy and prudently sized meals.
Moms are rough when it comes to portion control. But can I make one request? Given what's been happening with ballplayers' families in Venezuela lately, do you suppose we could use a phrase other than "attack" when it comes to talking about a VZ player's mom?
A week and a half ago I asked whether or not the Yankees bought their title. Given that, as of this morning, 652 people have commented on that, I feel comfortable saying that the subject struck a nerve.
Today noted sports economist Andrew Zimbalist says in the Wall Street Journal that, nope, the Yankees did not buy their title:
It's a little surprising, but the statistical relationship between a team's winning percentage and its payroll is not very high. When I plot payroll and win percentage on the same graph, the two variables don't always move together. In other words, knowing a team's payroll does not enable one to know a team's win percentage.Interesting, sure, but this should all be taken with a grain of salt. For one thing, while Zimbalist is the most famous sports economist out there, he has had his butt handed to him over what appears to be some pretty sloppy work in the past. He obviously knows more about sports business than you or I do, but whether he always uses that knowledge to reach sound conclusions, as opposed to starting with conclusions and using that knowledge in an effort to justify them, is an open question. Indeed, it's an open question with all supposed experts.More precisely, depending on the year, I find somewhere between 15% and 30% of the variance in team win percentage can be explained by the variance in team payroll. That means between 70% and 85% of a team's on-field success is explained by factors other than payroll. Those factors can include front office smarts, good team chemistry, player health, effective drafting and player development, intelligent trades, a manager's in-game decision-making, luck, and more.
Secondly, while the Yankees have always had money, with the opening of their new stadium, that money is reaching unprecedented levels (another sports economist, Vince Gennaro, thinks that their revenue went up by $100 million based on the stadium alone). Zimbalist talks about how the contracts they buy now may eventually become burdensome as the players age and "will weigh on the team's ability to acquire other players," but with the kind of cash flow the Yankees are seeing now, that conclusion is questionable. Sure, there's some payroll number that the Yankees can't afford, but there's no indication that they're anywhere close to reaching it.
Finally, while the Yankees have long been free agent players, we may very well be seeing something new in the past couple of years in terms of their ability to consistently and effectively use their money to get the right players. Ask yourself: what could have happened in the early part of this decade if the quiet Hal Steinbrenner had been in charge instead of the boisterous and emotional George? Can we say for certain that the Yankees wouldn't have won more titles if, rather than waste their time with the Jaret Wrights and Kei Igawas of the world, they had done what they did last winter and simply decided to sign the absolute top free agents?
Maybe those are unanswerable questions, but two things are certain: (1) while the Yankees have always had a fat wallet, that wallet is now fatter than it has ever been; and (2), while the Yankees have always spent their money freely, they have only recently really started to spend their money wisely. Each of those factors may radically change Zimbalist's dollars/wins graph going forward.
Jeff Blair of the Toronto Globe and Mail says that if the Reds are seriously thinking about cutting bait on Brandon Phillips, the Blue Jays would want him to be their third baseman.
You'll recall, of course, that the Blue Jays shipped their previous third baseman -- Scott Rolen -- to the Reds just last season, and that his salary is one of the big reasons that the cash-crunched Reds have to give up guys like Brandon Phillips. You'll also recall that the Jays received the Reds' third baseman Edwin Encarnacion in the deal.
Given that the trade apparently filled no holes for either team and harmed one financially, I'm tempted to deem the Rolen trade the most pointless trade in recent memory.
So says Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg, who reminds us that Tigers owner Mike Ilitch is an emotional guy:I can't help but think that all of these stories about the Tigers allegedly imminent fire sale are borne of one overheard temper tantrum by Ilitch. In light of the team's ugly late season collapse, I'd have one too if I were him.
Ilitch surely is furious now, and for good reason. He gave Dombrowski one of the biggest payroll advantages in baseball -- the Tigers had the fifth-highest payroll in the league -- and they could not even win a weak division.
Ilitch might stay mad and demand that Dombrowski cut payroll. But he also might calm down. And if it comes time to actually trade a prime player, especially a popular one, Ilitch's emotions might swing in the other direction, and he might decide he can't accept losing one of his stars.
Bobby Crosby. Bob Hamelin. Jason Jennings. Kazuhiro Sasaki. Immortals all, each of whom got their start with the Rookie of the Year Award. Who will join their esteemed ranks today, as the major post season awards begin to be rolled out?
AL: Multiple candidates here. Elvis Andrus probably deserved a Gold Glove this year. And though his bat wasn't anything to write home about, it wasn't an embarrassment, and at 21 there is every reason to expect a bright future. But the Rookie of the Year Award is less about projectablitiy than it is about what happened in year one. Rick Porcello is just as young and just as projectable as Andrus, but probably had a better season in a playoff race. Gordon Beckham overcame his own manager's initial reluctance to play him and, before it was said and done, was about the only reliable guy in the lineup.
Beckham has won a couple of non-BBWAA rookie awards so far this postseason. If I had to bet, I'd say he takes home the official Rookie of the Year Award as well. None of those three would be a bad choice.
UPDATE: I somehow left Andrew Bailey out of this discussion. Aaron's smarter than me about these things anyway, so you should probably just read his post. I still think they'll give it to Beckham, though.
NL: Four guys have an argument: Tommy Hanson, J.A. Happ, Andrew McCutchen and Chris Coghlan. Because the latter two get way less attention due to their Pittsburghality and Floridaness, I think it will come down to the two pitchers. Happ and Hanson had a similar number of innings and a similar ERA, but Happ was up earlier and pitched from the pen some, which may make him seem more valuable and versatile and all of that to the voters.
I'd clearly want Hanson long term -- better arm, better stuff -- but I think Happ probably gets it by virtue of the key role he played on a division winner (remember: the votes came in before the playoffs started, so the postseason doesn't enter into it).
Overall, there's always way less to argue about with the Rookie of the Year Award than there is with the other awards that'll come out in the next eight days. None of the folks mentioned here will be silly choices. Indeed, hardly any Rookie of the Year choices ever seem silly at the time. As the Hamelin and Sasaki choices show, It takes some years for the true humor to reveal itself.
As least psychically, as the GMs who met in Chicago last are said to be increasingly wary of players moving from the NL to the AL:The two most familiar reasons for the A.L.'s recent dominance are cited: the DH and, more significantly, the competitive pressures caused by the Yankees' and Red Sox' big spending. The latter even affects teams outside of the AL East, as the frequent unavailability of the wild card -- the Yanks and Sox usually win it -- makes them have to shoot for the division title. In the NL, in contrast, it's easier in any given year for any given team to make the playoffs.
His shoulders shrugged. His lips pursed. But Kenny Williams bit his tongue one syllable too late.
"A guy going from the American League to the National League, no disrespect, but . . . There are guys in the American League who go to the National League and don't do well, but there are not too many of them that I can think of."
Free Agency Preview - Catcher
Free Agency Preview - First base & DH
Free Agency Preview - Second base
This is part four in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. Up now is third base.
Chone Figgins (Angels) - Viewed by most as the No. 3 position player on the board behind Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, Figgins is in position to get a four-year deal worth at least $10 million per season. It helps that he's not limited to third base. He's probably no longer an option as a full-time second baseman, but he can handle center or left without much trouble. The Phillies are known to want him as a replacement for Pedro Feliz, the Mets appear to like him as a left fielder and the Cubs could use him in center field. It's possible that the Angels will keep him, but they do have Brandon Wood ready to take over at third base if the bidding gets out of control. Prediction: Cubs - four years, $48 million
Adrian Beltre (Mariners) - While Figgins is getting all of the attention, Beltre might well be the better bet going forward. He's the younger of the two by a year, and he's arguably baseball's best defensive third baseman. His 2009 season was a mess because of injuries, but he's still played in more games than Figgins over the last six seasons and he has the superior career OPS even though playing in Safeco has held him back (he's a career .287/.338/.488 hitter in road games). He'd be an outstanding choice for the Twins if they could come up with the money, and the Red Sox would likely pursue him if they could find a taker for Mike Lowell's contract. As is, his market is cloudy. Prediction: Phillies - three years, $27 million
Mark DeRosa (Cardinals) - DeRosa shouldn't be viewed as a starting second baseman at this stage of his career, but because of his increased power production the last couple of years, there will be several teams in on him. The Cardinals, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Twins may have interest in him as a third baseman, while the Cubs, Braves and Mets could use him in the outfield. Perhaps that will be enough to land him another three-year deal. Prediction: Cardinals - three years, $18 million
Troy Glaus (Cardinals) - Shoulder surgery, followed by some back troubles, limited Glaus to 29 at-bats last season, but he still thinks he can play third base regularly. He was able to start 151 games and hit .270/.372/.483 in 2008, so it's too early to write him off. Still, it'd be best if he landed in the American League, giving him the DH spot to fall back on just in case. Time will tell whether the steroid taint causes him any difficulty. Seattle, Oakland, Minnesota and Baltimore make sense as possible destinations. Prediction: Athletics - one year, $4 million plus incentives
Joe Crede (Twins) - A third straight season with fewer than 100 games played guarantees that Crede is going to have to accept another incentive-laden deal. Despite all of his back problems, he remains exceptional defensively at third base when he's in the lineup. However, he didn't impress with his .225/.289/.414 line at the plate in 333 at-bats last season. If the Twins want to keep going cheap, they'll probably re-sign him. Prediction: Twins - one year, $2.5 million plus incentives
Pedro Feliz (Phillies) - At least you know what you'll get from Feliz; he's finished with OPSs between 694 and 717 each of the last five years. He's also played in 150 games four times in those five seasons (133 in the other). Feliz will turn 35 in April and he has lost a step defensively, but he's still well above average. He likely has one or two years left as an adequate starter. Prediction: Astros - one year, $2.5 million
Melvin Mora (Orioles) - Mora is just a year removed from a terrific .285/.342/.483 season, but he lost 150 points of OPS in 2009, and since he's turning 38 this winter, there's little reason to think he'll bounce back. That he remains above average defensively means he's still worthy of a roster spot, if not a starting job. He's another potentially cheap option for the Astros or Marlins. If he wants to stay close to home, then perhaps the Yankees, Phillies or Mets would take him on as a bench player. Prediction: Mets - one year, $1 million
Other free agents: Aaron Boone (Astros), Dallas McPherson (Giants), Mike Hessman (Tigers), Brian Barden (Cardinals), Joe Thurston (Cardinals), Joe Dillon (Rays), Brian Buscher (Twins), Rich Aurilia (Giants), Chris Woodward (Red Sox), Pablo Ozuna (Phillies)
There isn't a lot of help here. Boone and Aurilia are expected to head off to retirement, and McPherson and Hessman are more likely to receive opportunities in Japan than in the U.S. ... Barden deserves another look as a utilityman after the Cardinals gave up on him quickly last season. He's an excellent defender at third and adequate at short.
Trade candidates: Mike Lowell (Red Sox - NTC), Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays), Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres), Garrett Atkins (Rockies), Ty Wigginton (Orioles), Mat Gamel (Brewers), Brandon Wood (Angels), Jeff Baker (Cubs), Brendan Harris (Twins), Andy Marte (Indians), Neil Walker (Pirates), Greg Dobbs (Phillies), Jeff Keppinger (Astros), Matt Brown (Angels), Adam Rosales (Reds)
With Lowell's hip slowing him down, the Red Sox would like to go in a different direction at third, either by shifting Kevin Youkilis to the position or by signing a free agent. Lowell, though, has a no-trade clause that he could choose to wield. His $12 million salary won't make him easy to move anyway, though the Red Sox could help out with that. ... The Blue Jays have seemingly wanted to be rid of Encarnacion since the day they picked him up for Scott Rolen. My feeling is that they should install him in right field and see what happens. He has very little trade value at the moment.
The Padres should play up Kouzmanoff's sterling fielding percentage and his numbers outside of Petco Park and move him now. His dreadful approach at the plate isn't getting any better, and they have Chase Headley capable of stepping in at third base. ... It'd be quite a waste for the Brewers to send Gamel back to Triple-A, but that's what they'll probably do with Casey McGehee expected to start at third base at the beginning of next season. Maybe someone will step up and offer a quality starting pitcher for him.
Non-tender candidates: Garrett Atkins (Rockies), Jose Bautista (Blue Jays), Brendan Harris (Twins), Jeff Keppinger (Astros), Eric Bruntlett (Phillies), Andy Marte (Indians), Freddy Sandoval (Angels), Brooks Conrad (Braves), Andy Tracy (Phillies), Andy Green (Mets)
The Rockies could have gotten something for Atkins at midseason. Now they'll probably have to cut him. It's hard to imagine someone acquiring him when he'll almost surely come cheaper in free agency than in arbitration. He'd be due about $7.5 million next season in arbitration. ... Bautista is a useful part-timer, but not at the $3 million or so that he'll make in arbitration. ... Harris will only make about $1.2 million, so he should be safe. The Twins might trade him, though. ... Keppinger will probably earn about $1 million. That's a fair number for an infielder who is pretty useful against lefties. The Astros, though, wouldn't have room for him if they went out and got a Feliz or a Mora.
2010-11 free agents: Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)*, Jhonny Peralta (Indians)*, Mike Lowell (Red Sox), Scott Rolen (Reds), Brandon Inge (Tigers), Garrett Atkins (Rockies), Eric Chavez (Athletics)*, Ty Wigginton (Orioles), Bill Hall (Mariners)*, Ramon Vazquez (Pirates), Geoff Blum (Astros)*,
2011 options: Ramirez - $14.6 million player option, Peralta - $7 million ($250,000 buyout), Chavez - $12.5 million ($3 million buyout), Hall - $9.25 million ($500,000 buyout), Blum - $1.65 million mutual option
2011-12 free agents: Aramis Ramirez (Cubs)*, Edwin Encarnacion (Blue Jays), Casey Blake (Dodgers)*, Mark Teahen (White Sox), Jose Bautista (Blue Jays), Greg Dobbs (Phillies)
2012 options: Ramirez - $16 million vesting mutual option ($2 million buyout), Blake - $6 million ($1.25 million buyout)
Here's a few Hot Stove items of note as we eagerly await 12:01 am on Friday:
The following are the top ten free agents, as ranked by 2009 WAR, or Wins Above Replacement (compiled with FanGraphs):
Some have speculated that Matt Holliday's
relationship with new hitting coach Mark McGwire might be one of the
selling points to keep him in St. Louis. Well, think again. 
Making his first Arizona Fall League start in 12 days, Nationals prospect Stephen Strasburg blanked the Peoria Saguaros over 3 1/3 innings on Saturday, allowing just one hit while striking out six and walking two.
Free Agency Preview - Catcher
Free Agency Preview - First base & DH
This is part three in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. Here are the second basemen.
Orlando Hudson (Dodgers) - Up until early September, expectations were that the Dodgers would make a push to re-sign Hudson this winter. But the All-Star suddenly lost his job to Ronnie Belliard down the stretch and didn't start any of his team's nine postseason games. Now he's sure to exit Los Angeles and his chances of landing the big multiyear deal he craves have diminished.
Besides the Dodgers, the Mets, Cubs and Diamondbacks are the teams most likely to target second basemen in free agency. The Twins, Tigers, Marlins and Mariners could also dip their toes into the market.
Hudson has stated his preference for playing in New York several times in the past, and the Mets would have a spot for him if they could find a taker for Luis Castillo's contract first. Hudson is overrated defensively at this point of his career and he's had trouble staying healthy, but he'd still be a decent enough investment on a short-term deal. Prediction: Mets - two years, $14 million
Placido Polanco (Tigers) - Between Hudson and Polanco, both of this year's Gold Glove second basemen are available in free agency. Polanco is the game's steadiest defender at second base, having committed just 10 errors over the last three seasons. He still has pretty good range as well, though now that he's 34, it remains to be seen how much longer than will last. His OPS has dropped from a career-best 846 in 2007 to 768 in 2008 to 727 last season. Like Hudson, he only makes a lot of sense on a two-year deal. Prediction: Dodgers - two years, $12 million
Felipe Lopez (Brewers) - Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley and Luis Castillo were the only second basemen to best Lopez's .383 OBP last season. The disastrous 2 1/2-year run in Washington may still have some skeptical, but Lopez has been a terrific second baseman since the Nationals let him go. He's no longer a basestealer, but he still has well above average range and he's proven quite durable. Also, he's just 29 years old, giving him a significant advantage over the rest of the free agents here. He's likely looking at a two-year deal at a nice raise from the $3.5 million he made last season. Prediction: Cubs - two years, $11 million
Adam Kennedy (Athletics) - After back-to-back poor seasons in St. Louis, no one was interested in giving Kennedy a chance to contend for a starting job as a free agent last winter. Fortunately, he caught a break when the A's needed infielders to cover for their injuries and he saved his career by hitting .289/.348/.410 with 20 steals in 129 games. Kennedy could always re-sign with the A's now, but he wouldn't be guaranteed a starting job with Eric Chavez perhaps on the way back. Odds are that someone else will give him a chance to play second. Prediction: Diamondbacks - one year, $2 million
Other free agents: Juan Uribe (Giants), Jamey Carroll (Indians), Ronnie Belliard (Dodgers), Jerry Hairston Jr. (Yankees), Alex Cora (Mets), Mark Loretta (Dodgers), Edgar Gonzalez (Padres), Josh Barfield (Indians), Danny Richar (Reds), Nick Green (Red Sox), Miguel Cairo (Phillies), Alex Cintron (Nationals), Mark Bellhorn (Rockies), Tony Graffanino (Indians), Pete Orr (Nationals)
Uribe probably isn't a starting shortstop these days, but he hit like a legitimate second baseman last season, coming in at .289/.329/.495 in 398 at-bats for the Giants. San Francisco wants him back as a utilityman. ... Carroll finished with identical .355 OBPs in his two seasons in Cleveland. It's just too bad he's no longer anything more than an emergency option at shortstop. ... Belliard has been underrated practically forever, so it was nice to see him get a chance to shine with the Dodgers at the end of the year. There should be some team out there willing to pencil him for 300 at-bats between second, third and first.
Trade candidates: Brandon Phillips (Reds), Jose Lopez (Mariners), Dan Uggla (Marlins), Alberto Callaspo (Royals), Kelly Johnson (Braves), Mike Fontenot (Cubs), Kevin Frandsen (Giants), Joaquin Arias (Rangers), Aaron Miles (Cubs), Hernan Iribarren (Brewers), Elliot Johnson (Rays), Brian Bixler (Pirates)
The Reds should be able to reduce payroll without moving Phillips, but if they don't see him in their long-term plans, now is the time to make the move. He'll be a lot more attractive this winter than he will be in 2011, when his salary jumps from $6.75 million to $11 million. ... Lopez collected 25 homers and 96 RBI as a 25-year-old last season, but he doesn't get on base and his best position is probably third base. If the Mariners see a chance to sell high, they'll probably go for it. ... I just addressed the Uggla situation on Friday.
Callaspo broke through with a .300/.356/.457 season in 2009 and he's going to make the minimum for another year, so it's surprising that the Royals seemingly have him up for bids. However, his defense at second base does leave a lot to be desired. ... Frandsen and the Giants both seem fed up with one another, and there's little chance that the 27-year-old will last the winter in the organization. He'll be a decent fallback option for a team with a question mark at second base.
Non-tender candidates: Kelly Johnson (Braves), Mike Fontenot (Cubs), Esteban German (Rangers), Joe Inglett (Blue Jays), Jarret Hoffpauir (Blue Jays), Tug Hulett (Royals), Mike McCoy (Blue Jays)
Johnson won't be back with the Braves, and now it's just a question of whether Atlanta will get something for him or if the club will have to non-tender him because of his likely $3 million-$3.5 million salary. Some of the teams that aren't sure whether they'll pursue second basemen -- Minnesota and Detroit come to mind -- would be smart to get into the mix if he becomes a free agent. ... Fontenot's OPS slipped from a remarkable 909 in 243 at-bats in 2008 to 677 in 377 at-bats last season, and he turned out to be the final player to qualify for super-two arbitration. The Cubs are expected to go in a different direction at second.
2010-11 free agents: Mark Ellis (Athletics)*, Akinori Iwamura (Pirates), Maicer Izturis (Angels), Omar Infante (Braves)*, Kaz Matsui (Astros), David Eckstein (Padres), Aaron Miles (Cubs)
2011 options: Ellis - $6 million ($500,000 buyout), Infante - $2.5 million ($250,000 buyout)
2011-12 free agents: Robinson Cano (Yankees)*, Aaron Hill (Blue Jays)*, Brandon Phillips (Reds)*, Jose Lopez (Mariners), Dan Uggla (Marlins), Rickie Weeks (Brewers), Kelly Johnson (Braves), Freddy Sanchez (Giants), Clint Barmes (Rockies), Luis Castillo (Mets), Esteban German (Rangers)
2012 options: Cano - $14 million ($2 million buyout), Hill - $26 million club option for 2012-14 (if exercised after 2010), Phillips - $12 million ($1 million buyout)
We're just one week away from when
the free agency floodgates open, meaning that we're in the calm before
the Hot Stove storm. Here's a few links to keep you busy on this
Saturday:Whether you buy the rumors of a possible Curtis Granderson trade or not,
their most valuable asset is ace Justin Verlander. The 26-year-old workhorse was 19-9 with a 3.45 ERA in 2009, leading the majors with
35 starts, 240 innings pitched and 269 strikeouts. "I won't get into that because that is best kept internal," he said. "But it is safe to say that we would like to have Justin in the organization for a long time."
According to a report from Mike Silva's New York Baseball Digest, Carl Crawford is "livid" over management's decision to pick up his $10 million option for next season and now wants out of Tampa. "He wants out of Tampa bad. He had a handshake agreement with management that they would renegotiate the contract instead of picking up the option and they went ahead and did it anyway. He's pissed beyond belief."
Among other sewage that has oozed to the surface is the erroneous belief that statistics are the end-all in baseball today, a myth perpetrated by the garbage called "MoneyBall." Moneyball geniuses have flopped like DePodesta, Ricciardi, and even the infamous Billy Beane whose exploits have all lacked a World Series trophy. It is all a tool to be used by the uninitiated. I'll take a good scout and player development people anytime; the statistics are very secondary. How do you account a .220 hitter for being the hero of the World Series or a guy who hits three home runs a year wins the pennant clincher with a home run? Pitchers often get the best of hitters in the playoffs. There are a million examples of things going against the logic of statistical analysis.Let's just say his "sources" might not know what they're talking about.
According to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, Edgardo Alfonzo wants one more shot to end his career with the Mets. "My dream is to retire with the Mets colors," Alfonzo said. "That's my dream. That's what I'm praying for, maybe it will happen, maybe not, but dreams sometimes come true, you know.
"I'm prepared for anything," Alfonzo said earlier this week. "Baseball is the one thing in my life that I know how to do. I don't expect to play every day, but I feel I can help anytime. I can say many things with my mouth, but I have to prove it."
The Giants confirmed Friday that top prospect Angel Villalona has lost his U.S. visa after being charged with killing a man in the Dominican Republic.
The 19-year-old Villalona was recently released from jail after reportedly agreeing to pay the family of the man he allegedly killed a total of $140,000.
Villalona was given a $2.1 million signing bonus to sign with the Giants at age 16. The team was looking him at him as its first baseman of the future, even though he was a disappointment while hitting .267/.306/.397 as an 18-year-old in high-A ball last season.
Now that he's without a visa, it's doubtful that he'll be able to begin 2010 playing in the minor leagues. Even if he's found innocent of the murder charges still pending against him, he may have trouble ever again obtaining a work visa for the U.S.
While it seems as though most of his suitors view him as a third baseman or outfielder, Dan Uggla isn't interested in moving off second base, his agent told Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown.
"Danny Uggla's been a full-time second baseman for the last four years," agent Jeff Borris said. "He's performed exceptionally well at that position. Although he has the athleticism to play other positions, he's performed remarkably over these four years at second base and there should be no reason to consider a position change at this time."
Of course, Uggla is pretty much universally regarded as a below average second baseman. UZR has actually rated him above average in two of his four seasons, but it had him at -10 runs last season. Luis Castillo was the only full-time second baseman to grade out worse. Overall, UZR has him three runs below average per year. Uggla commits more errors than the typical second baseman, and he's simply not very fast. He is surprisingly strong on double plays, but he's only going to get slower as he ages.
Money is the big reason most players resist moves to easier positions, but Uggla has little to lose here. He's still two years away from free agency, and by the time 2012 rolls around, it's doubtful that any team is going to give him a long-term contract to start second base. He'd almost surely be better off if he's settled in at third or in left field by then.
There's also the fact that second basemen, generally, don't make a lot of money. Bret Boone (remember him?) was the last free agent second baseman to land a contract worth more than $25 million. Castillo got $25 million from the Mets two years ago, and the team regretted the signing before the ink was even dry. Chase Utley and Brian Roberts are the only second basemen currently making more than approx. $7.5 million that Uggla figures to earn in arbitration next year. Second basemen tend to be plentiful and cheap in free agency. They also often age badly. Many will likely see Uggla as a poor investment as a second baseman in two years.
Uggla has been connected with the Giants and Orioles as a possibility at third and the Braves and Red Sox as a left fielder. No one, though, has been talking about picking him up to play second base. The 29-year-old might as well take the hint.
Jonathan Figueroa, a longtime minor leaguer who pitched in the Dodgers system, passed away from lupus at age 26.
The native of Venezuela was initially billed as a top prospect after a spectacular pro debut in 2002. He went 7-3 with a 1.42 ERA and a 105/39 K/BB ratio in 75 innings between the Rookie Pioneer League and the low-A Sally League. Baseball America rated him the Dodgers' No. 2 prospect that winter, placing him in between James Loney and Edwin Jackson.
Figueroa, though, never experienced much success after that, as shoulder and conditioning issues held him back. He went 1-8 with a 4.94 ERA in the Sally League in 2003, and he racked up ERAs of 7.00, 6.00 and 7.29 in subsequent seasons. He spent 2008 pitching in the indy leagues, and he went 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA in seven starts for Long Beach of the Golden League. He pitched in the American Association this year and was expected back with the Lincoln Salt Dogs in 2010.
Figueroa is survived by his wife and two children.
The marriage didn't start off as anyone wanted, but the Mariners announced on Friday that they've re-signed free agent Jack Wilson to a two-year deal through 2011. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic says the contract is worth $10 million.
Wilson was a bust in his first two months with the team after coming over from the Pirates along with Ian Snell for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno and prospects. He played in just 31 games, hitting .224/.263/.299 in 107 at-bats, before missing the final three weeks with a heel injury.
He also struggled defensively, committing five errors. That's the same number he totaled in 80 starts during an injury-plagued 2008 season. He was involved in just 17 double plays or .55 per start. That's well down from his career rate of .75 per game started.
Wilson may be the game's steadiest shortstop when healthy. His high for errors in a season is 18, and he still has well above average range even at age 32. He's never won a Gold Glove, but he deserved a couple in the early part of the decade.
Offense is, of course, a major problem. Wilson has finished with OPSs below 700 seven times in nine seasons. He's a career .268/.310/.374 hitter, with 98 percent of his at-bats coming in the easier league. He's also battled durability issues of late. He averaged 148 games per year from 2002-07, but he slipped to 87 in 2008 and 106 last season.
With no future shortstop on the horizon, it's hard to blame the Mariners for re-signing Wilson. They still need to go get themselves a legitimate backup to protect themselves, though. As long as Wilson hits ninth, limiting the damage he can do to the offense, he's a perfectly adequate regular and a big upgrade over what the Mariners were getting from Yuniesky Betancourt.
At the general manager meetings in Chicago earlier this week Doug Melvin was asked about the status of former Brewers starter Ben Sheets and replied that "no one has heard from" him after a lost year following elbow surgery.
In an effort to clear up Sheets' status agent Casey Close told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that the 31-year-old right-hander is doing "very well" in his rehab and plans to be ready for spring training.
"We have already heard from a number of teams inquiring about Ben's health and availability for 2010," Close said. "I will tell you that he has a very good chance to be one of the most impactful free agents, without question."
When healthy Sheets has long been one of the best starters in baseball, posting an ERA under 4.00 every year from 2004-2008. However, after becoming a free agent last offseason he managed only an incentive-laden two-year offer from the Rangers and then a pre-signing MRI exam revealed a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow.
Clearly teams will need to do some serious homework on Sheets' health before pursuing him, but in terms of risk versus reward he'd be very attractive on a one-year deal light on guaranteed money and heavy on incentives. Prior to going under the knife Sheets had a 3.09 ERA, 158/47 K/BB ratio, and .241 opponents' batting average in 2008.
Milwaukee general manager Doug Melvin has made it very clear that acquiring starting pitching is the Brewers' biggest priority this offseason, even trading J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez in part to clear payroll space for rotation help.
Despite that this afternoon the Brewers declined their $6.5 million option on Braden Looper, choosing to pay him a $1 million buyout instead after the 35-year-old went 14-7 with a 5.22 ERA in 194.2 innings spread over a league-leading 34 starts this season.
On the surface it may seem strange to get rid of a veteran who went 14-7 in a rotation that had the league's worst ERA, but Looper's win-loss record vastly overstates his effectiveness. In addition to his ugly 5.22 ERA, he allowed the most earned runs (113) and homers (39) in the league while opponents batted .289/.344/.503 against him. He basically turned every hitter into Matt Kemp, who batted .297/.352/.490 this season.
Looper also had a sub par 100/64 K/BB ratio in 194.2 innings and fell apart down the stretch, posting a 5.54 ERA in the second half that included a 6.58 mark in September. In other words he was awful at just about everything except for getting good run support from the Brewers' lineup, and as a 35-year-old who underwent post-season knee surgery he's hardly a good bet to improve enough to be worth $6.5 million in 2010.
Melvin indicated that the Brewers would consider re-signing Looper at a lesser salary, but added that in the meantime "we wanted to keep our flexibility" with the $5.5 million saved. It's a safe bet that Looper won't get anything close to $5.5 million on the open market, so even if the Brewers fail to land the big upgrade via free agency that Melvin is aiming for there's little risk in letting Looper shop himself around.
During yesterday's press conference announcing him as the Nationals' manager Jim Riggleman explained why the job is "the dream of a lifetime." Also of note from the video is general manager Mike Rizzo explaining that he chose Riggleman in large part because they "got along very, very well" during the final three months of this season, which backs Bobby Valentine's claim that Rizzo planned to hire Riggleman all along.
While the Twins wait to see whether prospects Danny Valencia or Luke Hughes will emerge as a long-term answer at third base, the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Joe Christensen reports that they're considering re-signing Joe Crede to another one-year deal.
When he signed with the Twins last winter Crede was coming off a season in which he played just 97 games because of injuries and hit .248 with 17 homers and a bad on-base percentage.
Now he's coming off a season in which he played just 90 games because of injuries and hit .225 with 15 homers and a bad on-base percentage. In other words, Crede performed more or less like the Twins should have expected and was ultimately worth the incentive-laden investment with his great defense factored in.
Between his modest .225/.289/.414 production in 367 plate appearances and Ultimate Zone Rating pegging his glove as 12 runs above average Crede was about 20 runs better than a replacement-level third baseman while earning $4 million in total salary. He's currently recovering from yet another back surgery, but Crede makes about as much sense for the Twins now as he did last offseason and may be even cheaper this time.
When healthy he hits .250 with good power and excellent defense at third base, but he's missed 234 of a possible 488 games in the past three years. He clearly can't be counted on for a full season, but Crede isn't a terrible fallback option for the budget-conscious Twins if they don't feel that Valencia is quite ready and miss out on free agent third basemen like Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, or Troy Glaus.
Not surprisingly, various reports following the general manager meetings in Chicago earlier this week note that the Mets and Red Sox were among teams to have talks with John Lackey's agent.
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald describes the Red Sox as "still in the fact-gathering stage" while David Lennon of New York Newsday suggests that the Mets are "testing waters." Meanwhile, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy reported previously that the Brewers met with Lackey's agent.
Toss in the Angels' interest in re-signing Lackey, the Yankees' presumed interest in adding him to their rotation, plus the various other interested teams not yet heavily linked to him and ... well, there's a reason why he's the consensus No. 1 free agent pitcher available. In writing last month about Lackey's upcoming free agency I noted that he's typically been one of the 10-15 best starters in the American League each season, making him a mid-level No. 1 starter.
Back then I wondered whether or not he'd top the five-year, $82.5 million deal that A.J. Burnett received from the Yankees last offseason. If the usual big spenders like the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, and Mets are truly all in the mix that seems like a lock at this point. Lackey is a good, solid top-of-the-rotation starter, but it also looks like he stands to benefit more than anyone from this offseason's weak crop of free agents. Can a 31-year-old pitcher with 102 career wins, a lifetime 3.81 ERA, and just one All-Star appearance get $100 million on the open market? It's starting to look that way.
Ken Davidoff of New York Newsday reports that "the Angels and Tigers have conversed about a Curtis Granderson trade, even though the Angels already have an All-Star center fielder in Torii Hunter."
Apparently the Angels are interested in using Granderson in left field, with Bobby Abreu in right field and Juan Rivera at designated hitter. That would leave free agent Vladimir Guerrero without a position and seemingly rule out his re-signing with the Angels, although Davidoff notes that the team could also look to trade Rivera.
Granderson is one of the better all-around players in the league, but a huge portion of his value comes from playing a strong center field defensively while being a plus offensively. Certainly his glove would remain an asset in left field, but the move would likely lessen his defensive impact and when compared to left fielders rather than center fielders his bat would stand out far less.
In other words, it seems unlikely that the team ultimately presenting the Tigers with the best possible trade offer for Granderson would be doing so with the intention of making him a corner outfielder. Certainly adding Granderson would make the Angels better, but he'd be a bigger upgrade for several other contending teams and the Yankees in particular seem like a logical fit if the Tigers are truly in sell mode.
ESPN's Buster Olney reproduces an email he received from former major league catcher Brent Mayne talking about sign stealing and mound visits and stuff.
It's pretty illuminating. Among the the tidbits he offers are that most hitters don't want stolen signs flashed to them by their teammates anyway. I can see that: how much time do you have to prepare for a pitch in the first place? Not a ton, so why would you want to take your eyes of the pitcher for the second or two you'd need to focus on the baserunner bouncing around down at second base?
Also, if you think the bad guys are stealing signs, you're much better off simply using a subtle indicator of some sort to change signs pursuant to a pre-set pattern as opposed to having mound visits. If you have multiple conferences on the mound the other team knows you're changing up, and they'll know they need to pay closer attention and try to steal a new set of signs.
Mayne sounds pretty sensible in all of this. Maybe Jorge Posada and CC Sabathia should call him this winter for a couple of tips.
Following up on John Wetteland's hospitalization yesterday, MLB.com is now reporting that Wetteland was released last night. Yesterday, the local sheriff called it a "mental health issue." It's also been reported that he was complaining of being depressed and contemplating suicide. Meanwhile, anonymous sources in the Mariners organization dispute the notion that there was a suicide risk. Last night Wetteland released a statement suggesting that it wasn't a mental thing at all:
"Thank you for your concerns. My wife and I are very appreciative of the over and above care of our local officers and paramedics. The circumstances leading to my elevated blood pressure and heart rate have been addressed. I am currently resting safely at home."
His medical condition is his own business, but it's probably worth noting that elevated blood pressure and heart rate are symptoms of all kinds of medical conditions, including some mental health issues, so who knows what the problem was? That said, if Wetteland really did experience some kind of serious mental episode it's really unlikely that he'd be released on the same day he was admitted. You usually don't just get to go home a few hours after telling the cops that you want to drop a toaster in your tub.
Maybe his ticker went haywire. Maybe he just lost it for a few minutes. Either way, it's good that he's home, and here's hoping he's better or at least on the way to being better.
The Nationals have made a lot of smart moves since tossing Jim Bowden over the side last year. Giving the reins to Mike Rizzo is one. Setting aside their Boras-phobia and paying for Strasburg was another. Sticking with Jim Riggleman was the right move in my mind as well.
The latest? Making it clear that Cristian Guzman is not their shortstop anymore. They're going to stick him at second, Riggleman said yesterday, and it's the smart way to go. Any young, building team (there is no "re" about it in their case) needs solid defense in order to get the young pitching staff through their inevitable early struggles. The classic example of this is the Braves chucking any hope at offense and putting Rafael Belliard at short back in 1991. The Nats aren't there yet -- this is still very much like the 1988-89 Braves we're dealing with here -- but if the Nats put a solid glove at short next to the Gold Glove-winning Ryan Zimmerman, they'll really be doing themselves -- and their pitchers -- a favor.
So who goes to short? Rosenthal reports that Rizzo is looking at Adam Everett and Alex Gonzalez. Riggleman mentions prospect Ian Desmond. Desmond has been described as having excellent range and a great arm, though he has been erratic at times. He showed some nice hitting skills in his brief callup last year, but if I'm the Nats, any offense I get from short is gravy.
If Everett or Gonzalez can be had on the cheap, sure, plug 'em in on a one-year deal and give Desmond a little more time to ease into things. If not, just take the plunge with Desmond.
What's the worst that'll happen? The Nats will lose some games?
The Silver Slugger Awards were announced last night. Like the Gold Gloves, the Silver Slugger is voted on by managers and coaches and stuff. Which makes little damn sense. We've long been in a world where offensive contributions can be quantified objectively -- especially compared to defense -- so why there's a vote involved is beyond me. What's next? Voting for the winner of the 100 meters?
But they still do it, so let's see how they did. In the AL we have:
1B -- Mark Teixeira
2B -- Aaron Hill
3B -- Evan Longoria
SS -- Derek Jeter
OF -- Ichiro Suzuki
OF -- Torii Hunter
OF -- Jason Bay
C -- Joe Mauer
DH --Adam Lind
Teixeira is the right choice. Youkilis had a great season but didn't have the plate appearances to match Teix's overall production. Miguel Cabrera is in the conversation too, but Teix edges him almost everywhere it matters, and had the big RBI numbers that catch the voters' eyes.
Same story could be told at third, where A-Rod had better rate stats but missed too much time. Ben Zobrist brought way more to the table than Aaron Hill did. I suppose he was docked because he only played 91 games at second base, but Adam Lind only DH'd for 95 games and he made the grade.
Shin-Soo Choo was boned in the outfield. He created more runs than any AL outfielder and was third in OPS. Torii Hunter missed time a la A-Rod and Youkilis, but unlike them, he wasn't docked. I'd give it to Choo over Hunter. And before you say anything, no, they didn't need one representative from each outfield position. They could have given it to three leftfielders if they wanted to. Apparently Indians fans weren't the only people who ignored what was going on with the Indians this year.
In the NL it's:
1B -- Albert Pujols
2B -- Chase Utley
3B -- Ryan Zimmerman
SS -- Hanley Ramirez
OF -- Ryan Braun
OF -- Andre Ethier
OF -- Matt Kemp
C -- Brian McCann
P -- Carlos Zambrano
The NL is pretty darn good. Pujols, Utley and Ramirez are no-brainers. Brian McCann is the right call too. I think Pablo Sandoval might have been a better choice than Zimmerman, even if he spent time at other positions (120 games at 3B). I'm sure a lot of it has to do with Zimmerman's scorching-hot start, whereas Sandoval was more of a solid, hoo-hum producer throughout the year. I wonder if there wasn't a little bit in the way of seniority-preferences or east coast bias at work too.
Either and Kemp are a tossup from a purely offensive perspective, but I can't help but think that one of them should have made way for Jayson Werth.
Why they give a Silver Slugger to a pitcher is beyond me, but sure, give it to Zambrano. If you don't he may hit you or have a nervous breakdown or something.
Of course no one ever fights over the Silver Slugger Award. We'll save that for later this month when the BBWAA awards are announced.
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Texas Rangers are interested in Vlad Guerrero. Makes all kinds of sense. The Rangers obviously want and need a DH, as evidenced by their recent flirtation with the idea of bringing back Milton Bradley. Also, as Rosenthal notes, Vald has killed the ball in Texas. Of course, a lot of that has to do with the fact that he's faced some truly awful Ranger pitching there over the years and won't get to do that if he's, you know, playing for them, but we'll let that go for a moment.
SI's Jon Heyman listened to Scott Boras hold court up at the GM meetings in Chicago, and reports that (a) Boras thinks that Damon should get a four-year deal; (b) Damon doesn't want less than his current $13 million; (c) the Yankees are saying that they are "absolutely not" going to offer him four years -- more like 2; (d) the Yankees offer would be at $10 million per; and (e) the Giants have some interest in Damon.
Free Agency Preview - Catchers
This is part two in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. Here are the first basemen and designated hitters.
Adam LaRoche (Braves) - Fortunately, LaRoche's big surge as a member of the Braves -- he hit .325 with 12 homers and 40 RBI in 57 games after being traded for the second time in 2009 -- still wasn't enough to make him a Type A free agent. In fact, not one of the free agent first basemen/designated hitters will require draft pick compensation.
That he's just now turning 30 and he's proven quite durable gives LaRoche a significant advantage over the other options at first base. His worst OPS in six big-league seasons was a 775 mark in 2005, and he's a steady defender. He's the safest available choice and the only one worthy of a three-year deal. Besides the Braves, it looks like the Orioles, Mariners, Mets, Giants and Diamondbacks have the biggest needs at first base. However, most of those teams have quality first base prospects on the way and will target one-year options. That might make Baltimore and San Francisco the best first for LaRoche. Prediction: Orioles - three years, $21 million
Nick Johnson (Marlins) - Johnson failed to recover his power last season after missing so much of 2008 with wrist problems, but he did manage to play in 133 games and get on base at a .426 clip. Even if he's no longer a candidate to hit 20-25 homers, he's still the best player in this group of first basemen. Of course, he's also the most fragile. He's never played in 150 games, and he's been held under 100 games four times in his eight seasons. He'll likely get a two-year deal anyway, but it won't be for big money. Not helping his case is that most of the teams that particularly value OBP are already set at first base. Prediction: Mariners - two years, $12 million
Carlos Delgado (Mets) - The Mets probably wouldn't have paid the price to bring back a healthy Delgado in 2010, but the 37-year-old will be forced to take quite a discount after hip surgery cost him the final 132 games of last season. He'd seem to make a fine stopgap for one of the teams waiting on a first base prospect. However, that will depend on whether he's still going to be able to field his position. The Mets are the ones with all of the info about his condition, so if they're not interested in re-signing him, other NL teams would be smart to stay away. Prediction: Giants - one year, $7 million
Russell Branyan (Mariners) - Branyan gave the Mariners 31 homers for a mere $1.4 million last season, so it's not surprising that Seattle wants him back. It's also not surprising that Branyan is holding out for a multiyear deal this time around. He would have had a much better chance of getting one if he didn't miss the final five weeks of last season with back problems. Branyan's 2009 performance wasn't necessarily a fluke, but his slumps get especially ugly and his extreme strikeout rate will cause many teams to shy away. Working under the theory that it's really tough to hit homers at Citi Field -- whether it's true or not -- the Mets might think it makes sense to go with someone who hits bombs. Prediction: Mets - one year, $5 million
Hank Blalock (Rangers) - One of the game's best young players in 2003 and '04, Blalock has now gone five straight seasons without being both healthy and productive He excelled in 2007 and 2008, but he played in just 123 games between the two seasons. In the other three years, he finished with OPSs of 749, 726 and 736. Also needing to be weighed in is that he may no longer an option at third base and that he's a career .245/.300/.414 hitter away from Arlington. Still, he's just turning 29 and his power hasn't gone anywhere. He'll probably need to accept a one-year deal in order to rebuild his value, and that will make him worth trying. Ideally, the team that signs him would also get an option for 2011, just in case he does come through with a big season. Prediction: Diamondbacks - one year, $4.5 million
Jim Thome (Dodgers) - Thome's back seems to be deteriorating to the point at which he's no longer even an everyday designated hitter, but he still managed an 864 OPS and 23 homers in 345 at-bats before the White Sox sent him to Los Angeles for the final month of last season. The move was welcomed by Thome, since the White Sox were out of contention, but the 39-year-old is open to returning to Chicago now. It'd be a surprise if the two sides couldn't work something out. Prediction: White Sox - one year, $4 million
Aubrey Huff (Tigers) - Huff appeared to be in position for another multiyear deal when he hit a respectable .275/.342/.450 over the first three months of last season. Unfortunately, a July slump followed and he was particularly terrible after being sent from Baltimore to Detroit, coming in at .189/.265/.302 in 106 at-bats the rest of the way. Needless to say, he cost himself a lot of money in the process. He should land another starting job, but there's a good chance he'll be one of the last first basemen off the board. Prediction: Braves - one year, $3.5 million
Other free agents: Jason Giambi (Rockies), Chad Tracy (Diamondbacks), Mike Sweeney (Mariners), Ross Gload (Marlins), Kevin Millar (Blue Jays), Nomar Garciaparra (Athletics), Daryle Ward (Nationals), Robb Quinlan (Angels), Chris Shelton (Mariners), Dmitri Young (Nationals), Jeff Bailey (Red Sox), Ryan Shealy (Royals), Justin Huber (Twins), Tony Clark (FA), Doug Mientkiewicz (Dodgers), Joe Koshansky (Brewers), Bryan LaHair (Mariners), Greg Norton (Braves), Kevin Barker (Reds)
Giambi was a bust as Oakland's first baseman, but he excelled in a brief stint as a bench player with the Rockies, driving in 11 runs in just 24 at-bats. While his defensive limitations are obvious, there are likely several NL teams that would welcome his presence off the bench. ... Tracy has been a big disappointment since returning from knee surgery in 2008, but he's a 29-year-old with a career OPS of 792 and he'll come awfully cheap. It will be interesting to see who takes a chance on him. Cleveland is my guess.
Trade candidates: Adrian Gonzalez (Padres), Prince Fielder (Brewers), James Loney (Dodgers), Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays), Jorge Cantu (Marlins), Casey Kotchman (Red Sox), Travis Ishikawa (Giants), Ryan Garko (Giants), Gaby Sanchez (Marlins), Jake Fox (Cubs), Micah Hoffpauir (Cubs), Jeff Larish (Tigers), Juan Miranda (Yankees), Steve Pearce (Pirates), Oscar Salazar (Padres), Kila Ka'aihue (Royals), Josh Whitesell (Diamondbacks), Jordan Brown (Indians)
Can the Red Sox or Mets pry Gonzalez away from the Padres? He seems like the better bet to go than Fielder, but since there's two years left on his deal, there's no pressure on San Diego to pull the trigger now. New GM Jed Hoyer won't want to make a Gonzalez trade his first move with the team unless there's a really sweet deal on the table. ... Loney's name popped up when the Dodgers were supposedly in on Gonzalez at midseason. First base seemed a reasonable place to look for an upgrade then. However, between Loney's strong finish and the money problems expected to result from the Dodgers' ownership mess, a move seems pretty unlikely now.
Overbay is expected to exit Toronto, with Adam Lind likely stepping in at first base. His name has already come up in rumors with the Diamondbacks, Mets and Mariners, and it'd be no surprise to see him connected with the Giants and Braves soon. That he has only one year and $7 million left on his deal makes him rather attractive. ... Cantu is likely due around $5.5 million-$6 million next season, so a move is possible. However, the Marlins should have the flexibility to keep him if they trade Dan Uggla. ... The Cubs can't hold on to both Fox and Hoffpauir when they're scared to play either in the outfield. As the left-handed hitter on a team with a right-handed first baseman, Hoffpauir seems like the better fit of the two.
Non-tender candidates: Casey Kotchman (Red Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals), Ryan Garko (Giants), Shelley Duncan (Yankees), Juan Miranda (Yankees), Michael Aubrey (Orioles), Aaron Bates (Red Sox), Barbaro Canizares (Braves)
The Jeremy Hermida acquisition didn't seem to bode well for Kotchman's chances of sticking in Boston, as the team can only keep so many $3 million bench players. Free agency might be the best thing for Kotchman anyway. I still view the 26-year-old as a long-term regular. ... Jacobs won't be brought back by the Royals, and it's doubtful that anyone will trade for him when he figures to make $3.5 million or so in arbitration. ... Garko is a first-time arbitration eligible player, and he is worth his likely $1.5 million-$2 million salary. The Giants, though, would have little reason to keep him around if they went out and got a full-time first baseman. Odds are that he wouldn't last long in free agency. Since every notable first baseman in free agency is left-handed, his right-handed bat would be pretty attractive.
2010-11 free agents: Albert Pujols (Cardinals)*, Adrian Gonzalez (Padres)*, Carlos Pena (Rays), Lance Berkman (Astros)*, Derrek Lee (Cubs), David Ortiz (Red Sox)*, Paul Konerko (White Sox), Jorge Cantu (Marlins), Lyle Overbay (Blue Jays), Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners), Wes Helms (Marlins)
2011 options: Pujols - $16 million ($5 million buyout), Gonzalez - $5.5 million, Berkman - $15 million ($2 million buyout), Ortiz - $12.5 million
2011-12 free agents: Albert Pujols (Cardinals), Prince Fielder (Brewers), Adrian Gonzalez (Padres), Ryan Howard (Phillies), Todd Helton (Rockies)*, Casey Kotchman (Red Sox), Mike Jacobs (Royals)
2012 options: Helton - $23 million ($4.6 million buyout)
Matthew broke down the free agent catchers last night, giving detailed predictions into where they are likely to go, and for how much money.
It all gets one to thinking about what you should value most in a catcher: Is it offense? Defense? Calling a game? Handling pitching staffs and dealing with umpires?
They're the quarterbacks of baseball. Perhaps the most important -- and often undervalued -- position in the game.
Which brings me to a fascinating column on Baseballanalysts.com by former catcher Brent Mayne, who delves into the "Intangibles of Catching," giving us a good look at what goes on behind the plate.
Allow me to explain and show you how I see it from a catcher's perspective. For every pitch, you've got about eight million variables coming at you. Who is the hitter and how have I attacked him in the past? What is the game situation? What are your pitcher's strengths and weaknesses? What is the game plan/scouting report? Who is the umpire and what is his strike zone today? What does your manager want? The list goes on and on. And you need to process all this information and put down the correct number...right now.
Mayne, who hit .263 in 15 seasons in the majors (1990-2004), goes on to write about his disgust for managers who call pitches from the bench (particularly in the minors and amateur ball), the importance of communicating with pitchers (that's Mayne above trying to calm down Jose Lima in 2003), calling pitches and controlling the pace of the game.
It's an interesting story. I suggest you check it out.
Follow me on Twitter at @bharks. For more baseball news, go to NBCSports.com.
Mariners bullpen coach John Wetteland was taken to Denton Regional Medical Center in Texas and hospitalized for a mental health issue on Thursday afternoon after police were called to his house.
A call concerning a possible suicidal person brought officers to Wetteland's home just after noon Thursday. As the CBS 11 report states: "When officers arrived to the home, a man later identified as Wetteland came out with his hands in the air, saying he 'needed help.'"
Wetteland, 42, was expected back for a second season as the Mariners' bullpen coach in 2010. The former Yankee and Rangers saved 330 games during a 12-year major league career than ended in 2000. He was previously a coach for the Nationals in 2006 and, according to his Wikipedia page, he spent 2007 serving as an assistant baseball coach and Bible teacher at Liberty Christian School in his hometown.
*With Tim Hudson re-signed to a bargain three-year deal, the Braves are likely to step up efforts to move Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez or Kenshin Kawakami, according to the AJC's David O'Brien.
It's a given. Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are all locks for the rotation next year, meaning that one of the expensive veterans will have to go. Vazquez, who has just one year and $11.5 million left on his deal, is the one of the three capable of bringing something substantial in return. Vazquez is a better option than every free agent starter besides John Lackey. He does have limited no-trade protection that prevents the Braves from sending him to the West Coast. The East and Central teams in both leagues are in play, though.
Lowe and Kawakami would likely have to be traded for other players with significant contracts. Lowe is owed $45 million for three seasons, while Kawakami will receive $13.33 million over the next two years. I made the case for a Lowe-for-Carlos Lee swap last month, but that's not going to happen. If the Nationals were interested in playing with the big boys, Lowe and cash for Josh Willingham would make some sense for both teams. I do believe Lowe is the most likely of the trio to go, even though there will be few teams capable of taking on his contract.
*O'Brien also notes in his blog that the Braves have interest in Florida's Dan Uggla as a left fielder.
The Braves clearly want to add some right-handed power, ideally without taking on a long-term commitment in the process. They currently have holes at first base and in the outfield corners, but by the time 2011 rolls around, Jason Heyward should already be installed as the everyday right fielder and Freddie Freeman could be ready to play first base. Jordan Schafer also can't be forgotten about. The Braves have the option of going back to him in center and shifting Nate McLouth to left field.
That's why the Braves are likely to stay away from the top free agents and try to get creative. Uggla, who has two years of arbitration eligibility left, would probably be a bit above average in left field and the Marlins might not get much in return because he's due at least $8 million next year. O'Brien mentions Kelly Johnson as a possibility to go the other way in a deal. Johnson is almost certainly done in Atlanta, but he could be a more-than-adequate replacement for Uggla in Florida. The problem there is cost. Johnson still offers a fair amount of upside, but the Marlins may not want to spend $3 million-$3.5 million next year on a player who is a pretty big question mark. Florida might prefer someone making the minimum, like right-handed swingman Kris Medlen.
*Both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez were recently declared Type A free agents, meaning any team signing one of the two would have to surrender a draft pick.
That is, of course, assuming that the Braves offer the two arbitration. There's been speculation that they wouldn't with Soriano, and if that's the case, GM Frank Wren deserves some blame.
In Jan. 2008, the Braves signed Soriano to a two-year, $9 million deal that bought out his first year of free agency. It was a perfectly reasonable agreement, but it was set up so that Soriano would make just $2.9 million in 2008 and then $6.1 million in 2009. If Soriano had made, say, $5 million last season, offering him arbitration now would be a safer proposition, since it'd be difficult for him to ask for much more than $7 million-$7.5 million. Because of the higher starting point, he can now go beyond that, and the Braves don't want to risk paying the injury-prone right-hander $8 million-$9 million in 2010.
Gonzalez, who made a much more reasonable $3.45 million last season, is likely to get an arbitration offer. So, the Braves will most likely get two extra draft picks if he leaves.
Expectations are that both relievers will depart, and the Braves will try to find a modestly priced replacement. Billy Wagner is one name that makes a lot of sense.
As mentioned last night, Micah Owings lost the tiebreaker that would have gained him super-two eligibility and increased his 2010 salary from $500,000 to likely around $1 million or so.
Had Owings been made arbitration eligible, it's possible that the Reds would have non-tendered him. The 27-year-old went 7-12 with a 5.34 ERA last season and was even worse with the Diamondbacks in 2008, finishing 6-9 with a 5.93 ERA. He was only successful during his rookie season in 2007, when he went 8-8 with a 4.30 ERA.
So, as a pitcher, Owings very likely isn't worth $1 million for 2010. It doesn't look like he has the arsenal to stick as a starter, and his command has regressed in a big way.
Of course, Owings isn't really known for his pitching these days. A star first baseman at Tulane, the 6-foot-5 Owings has hit .300/.331/.547 with eight homers in 170 major league at-bats. That line comes with a 56/8 K/BB ratio, but it's still incredible for someone who hasn't had more than 60 at-bats in a year since 2005.
There was already a legitimate case a year ago, but now there's a great argument for converting Owings into a position player. Maybe he could be a perfectly useful major league reliever, but his arsenal hardly stands out. And he could always go back to that if he fails as a position player. On the other hand, his time to make the switch to the outfield is running out. At age 27, he's going to have to improve his conditioning to pull it off. He's only going to lose athleticism as he ages.
As a full-time hitter, Owings would seem to be a definite threat to hit 25 homers. Whether he'd maintain a respectable OBP along the way is the question. If he gets regular at-bats, the holes in his approach are going to be exposed. But he'll also be able to concentrate on making adjustments. Plus, he'll probably show more patience at the plate. For what it's worth, he walked 42 times in 217 at-bats during his final year in college.
I think it's clear he has more upside as a batter than as a pitcher at this point. And he could still be of additional use as an occasional reliever in games already decided. Whether he fits in with the Reds in that role is still up in the air. The team currently has Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Jonny Gomes, Chris Dickerson, Wladimir Balentien, Willy Taveras and Laynce Nix as outfield options. Taveras and Nix are both candidates to be released, but that still leaves five legitimate options, and Gomes, Balentien and Owings are remarkably similar offensive talents as right-handed power bats with OBP issues.
The Owings' offensive ceiling so closely resembles Gomes' 2009 season may, in fact, rule Owings the outfielder out as an option for the Reds. But it probably wouldn't cost much at all for another team to bring in Owings. It's time that he makes the switch, and there are several small-market clubs that would have something to gain by taking a chance on him.
* Bobby Valentine revealed that he was "baffled" by the Nationals' interview process and decision to choose Jim Riggleman over him for the manager job. "I'm pretty sure they had Jim in their back pockets the whole time," Valentine said.
* Asked about rumors that the Tigers are being forced to shop Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson because of payroll constraints, general manager Dave Dombrowski said: "We're not having a fire sale." Of course, no one really accused Detroit of holding a fire sale and he didn't deny anything specific regarding Granderson or Jackson.
* Jason Schmidt is keeping his options open, but will likely retire after spending the past three years unsuccessfully coming back from shoulder surgery. Schmidt won just three games during his three-year, $47 million contract with the Dodgers after going 78-37 with a 3.36 ERA over six seasons for the rival Giants.
* Now that Ken Griffey Jr. is back in Seattle for at least one more season, Greg Johns of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer examines how far the future Hall of Famer can move up various all-time leaderboards.
Struggles returning from offseason shoulder surgery followed by back problems left Troy Glaus on the sidelines until September and he played just 14 games overall this season, basically making 2009 a lost year for the four-time All-Star.
His health remains a huge question mark, but Glaus batted .270/.372/.483 with 27 homers in 151 games for the Cardinals as recently as last year to top an .800 OPS in a ninth straight season. For the 2000s he leads all MLB third baseman with 274 homers and ranks third in adjusted OPS+ behind only Chipper Jones and David Wright.
Glaus' ability to play third base is certainly in doubt, because in addition to the shoulder problems he's 33 years old, stands 6-foot-5, and weighs around 250 pounds. However, he was originally a shortstop and his defense has graded out reasonably well at the hot corner, with Ultimate Zone Rating pegging his glove as a positive there in both 2007 and 2008. Plus, if needed his bat is certainly potent enough to remain at asset at first base or even designated hitter.
In terms of risk versus reward Glaus likely has the highest upside of any free agent third baseman, because his value and price tag have never been lower and if healthy he's an elite right-handed power hitter with good plate discipline and a decent glove.
In a deal that was agreed upon weeks ago and delayed by the need for a pre-signing physical exam, the Braves and Tim Hudson have officially completed a three-year contract extension that includes a fourth-year team option for 2013.
Atlanta held a $12 million option or $1 million buyout on Hudson for 2010, but the new contract supersedes that. Hudson will reportedly receive around $9 million per season after posting a 3.61 ERA in seven starts down the stretch to apparently convince the Braves that he's fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.
Obviously handing a three-year contract to a 34-year-old who's just 42 innings removed from elbow surgery carries plenty of risk, but Hudson looked very much like his old self in September and has had an ERA above 3.75 just twice in 11 seasons. For his career he's 148-78 with a 3.49 ERA in 2,060 innings, including 56-39 with a 3.77 ERA since coming to the Braves from the A's in a December of 2004 trade.
Atlanta's outstanding rotation depth hardly made retaining Hudson a must, so the Braves must be very confident about his elbow. General manager Frank Wren explained that re-signing Hudson "allows us to take the next step," which almost surely means trading at least one of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Kenshin Kawakami for offensive help. Here's more from Wren:
This does give us the depth and strength in one area of our club that allows us to do some other things now. We're going to be looking at that over the next three to four weeks as we lead into the winter meetings. I think we're a work in progress in that regard, still in feeling-out process with other clubs. This is the first step to it, and now we have some additional direction.
Lowe is 36 years old and just posted the second-worst ERA of his career, so shedding the remaining three years and $45 million on his contract will prove difficult unless the Braves are willing to eat a bunch of salary. Vazquez is coming off a fantastic season and will make $11.5 million in 2010 before becoming a free agent, so he'd be far easier to deal for significant value. Either way, with veteran starting pitching to shop the Braves will be major players at the winter meetings in a few weeks.
What do you do after blowing an MLB-high 11 saves with a 7.21 ERA during the regular season and coughing up three runs to take the loss in your final postseason outing?
Well, if you're Brad Lidge you have your arm operated on. Lidge underwent surgery yesterday to repair the flexor pronator tendon in his forearm and also had "a loose body" removed from his elbow while he was under the knife.
He'll be out of commission for about two months and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. revealed that he may not be ready for the start of spring training.
"Brad could be one to two weeks behind in spring training, but overall we feel very good about his recovery time," Amaro said. "We're hopeful that he will be ready close to Opening Day."
It's worth noting that "will be ready close to Opening Day" could mean something entirely different than "will be ready to close Opening Day," especially if the Phillies' reported interest in Fernando Rodney proves real. It'll be interesting to see if Charlie Manuel's loyalty to Lidge extends to throwing him out there with a ninth-inning lead in Game 1 of 2010 even if the surgery limits him during spring training. And by "interesting" I mean enough to give Phillies fans heartburn all offseason.
* Brandon Webb threw yesterday for the first time since August shoulder surgery, playing catch on flat ground from 60 feet for about 15 minutes. "No problems and no pain," Webb said afterward. "I was very encouraged." Last week the Diamondbacks exercised their $8.5 million option on Webb for 2010 and the hope is that he'll be ready for spring training.
* Scratched from his start in the Arizona Fall League's televised "Rising Stars Game" over the weekend because of a strained neck, Stephen Strasburg is now scheduled to get back on the mound Sunday.
* Glen Perkins and the Twins have reached a settlement on the grievance that he filed over suppressed service time. The two sides had been scheduled for a Friday hearing in New York. Perkins remains a strong candidate to be traded this offseason.
* Steven Soderbergh stepping away from the project put the Moneyball movie in flux, but 500 Days of Summer director Marc Webb and Capote director Bennett Miller are reportedly now under consideration to take over the Brad Pitt vehicle.
You know you've done something wrong in this world when a guy who is famous for being (1) an admitted liar; (2) an admitted drug dealer; and (3) who was once implicated in an alleged date-rape drug incident (and lied to police about it) sues YOU for defamation of character . . . and HAS THE STRONGER CASE!
Lawyers for Roger Clemens filed a motion to dismiss a defamation lawsuit by Brian McNamee, on the grounds that Clemens and his representatives weren't serious when they accused the former trainer of trying to shake down the seven-time Cy Young Award winner.Clemens, lawyer Rusty Hardin and others also weren't serious when they questioned McNamee's mental state, wrote attorney Joe Roden in the motion filed in federal court in Brooklyn, according to a report Thursday in the New York Daily News.
"They are part of the public battle of words between the two camps, and in no way suggest to the average reader that McNamee is actually mentally unfit," Roden wrote.
THAT'S the defense? "We didn't really mean it! It was all P.R. stuff!" Really?!
How about a simple filing that says "Mr. McNamee, who has been shown to be a pretty big slime ball in the past few years, cannot possibly say to this court that his reputation has been damaged as a result of all of this. Because you have no case if you have no damages, the lawsuit should be dismissed." Fine, pay the lawyers extra to make it sound fancy, but that's what Clemens should be saying.
Of course, Clemens hasn't done a single thing he should have done since the Mitchell Report came out. If he had simply shut up about it all, he may be someone's pitching coach right now. But between his ham-fisted P.R. offensive and his ill-advised defamation suit -- which revealed to the world that he was messing around on his wife with a severly damaged country music star, possibly while she was underage -- he has done more to make himself look like a slimeball than Brian McNammee ever could.
Mark McGwire has a job. Andy Pettitte was just in a World Series parade. Roger Clemens can't show himself in public and is getting sued by a lying drug dealer for having his good name besmirched. And he's losing!
Great moves, Rocket!
Yesterday the Pioneer Press reported that contract talks between the Twins and Joe Mauer had begun.
Joe Mauer, on the phone to the Star-Tribune last night: "I've been thinking about things like that, but to tell you the truth, we haven't really started [negotiating with the Twins]."
I suppose we could parse the definition of the word "really" here, but if I had to guess I'd say that the Pioneer Press overstated things. This is the sort of stuff that happens during the crazy season (i.e. hot stove time).
All we know for sure right now is what Aaron said yesterday: The Twins say they want to keep Mauer, but they haven't gone all out to pay their own top dollar since Kirby Puckett roamed the Earth. And that was when top dollar was $3 million a year.
Ultimately this process rests in Joe Mauer's hands. Nothing will happen until he decides whether or not he's going to shoot for the biggest possible bucks or, alternatively, do something creative and likely below market to stay in Minnesota.
I think he'll ultimately do the latter, but right now there's nothin' really new.
Victor Zambrano's mother was recovered from kidnappers in Venezuela on Tuesday. That's good. The threat to anyone connected with Major League Baseball, however, remains the same: if they think you can pay a ransom, your family is subject to kidnappers. That's bad! So bad that the Mets are considering asking their catching prospect Josh Thole to return home from his winter league team there.
Whether Thole -- a young, not-yet-rich American who presumably has no family in Venezuela -- faces the kind of threat that rich, native Venezuelan starts like Zambrano and Yorvit Torrealba do is an open question. I mean, it's my uneducated guess that these kinds of people don't want to risk the kind of heat that would come down if they started picking up random U.S. citizens, but who the hell knows?
What I do know, though, is that if I were running a Major League team I'd (a) do everything I could to persuade my Venezuelan players to relocate their families; and (b) I'd probably not want anyone playing in the Venezuelan winter leagues. Baseball simply ain't worth this kind of thing.
CBS's Scott Miller talks to Angels' GM Tony Reagins who says that we shouldn't assume that John Lackey and Chone Figgins have played their last games in Anaheim:
I'm not sure why everyone has discounted Anaheim's chances of re-signing Lackey and Figgins. As of now, the Angels have a little north of $70 million in guaranteed 2010 money to Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews, Jr., Bobby Abreu, Brian Fuentes, Scott Kazmir, Scot Shields, Ervin Santana, and Juan Rivera. They have 10 or so pre-arb players who made less than half a million last year. Most of them will get raises, but even then, that puts the team at, what, the $95 million range, tops? Spare change rounds out the roster.While that still could happen, Angels GM Tony Reagins said Wednesday that there's "no question" the club intends to attempt to retain Lackey, as well as leadoff man Chone Figgins. Both are high atop the desirables this winter in a weak free-agent class. . .
. . . Reagins said the Angels have been in touch with Lackey's representative, Steve Hilliard, since the season ended. "The communication has been good thus far," Reagins said. "I think that's what's important." As for Figgins, whom the Philadelphia Phillies and others have expressed interest in, Reagins says that there have been "positive lines of communication."
The Angels had a payroll of $113 million in 2009 and Reagins tells Miller that he expects it will be similar in 2010. Assuming there's at least a bit of give in those numbers, it's at least plausible to suggest that the Angels could sign both Lackey and Figgins to long term deals without significant hometown discounts. Yes, that means walking away from Vlad, but maybe the Angels do that anyway, covering the DH slot with Abreu and Rivera and whoever needs rest at any given time. And let us not forget: Gary Matthews wants out of Anaheim. No, it's not likely the Angels will find someone dumb enough to pick up a significant portion of his salary, but maybe a little of it goes away. Crazier things have happened.
Maybe that's a stretch, but they certainly could be players for one of those guys, and any hot stove speculation that doesn't at least acknowledge Anaheim's chances at signing either Figgins or Lackey -- or maybe even both -- is missing part of the story.
The New York Daily News ponders whether, in the case of Derek Jeter, the Yankees will break their longstanding rule of not entering into contract negotiations with current players until their current deal is up. The Captain is entering the least year of his ten-year, $189 million deal. The most interesting question raised by the article is whether Jeter would actually take the bait from another team if he's allowed to become a free agent:Would the Captain test the market to punish the Yankees for stringing him along? And if he did, is there a team out there with enough resources - and guts - to try to put Jeter in another uniform to finish his career? . . . With most teams looking to reduce payroll, it's unlikely to think that any other franchise would commit the kind of money it would take to lure Jeter away from New York - assuming that money exists. But as one GM pointed out, "All it takes is one team."I would place the likelihood of the Yankees letting Jeter go elsewhere -- or Jeter wanting to go elsewhere, even for more money -- at approximately .000000001%, and the only reason that number is above zero is to reflect the probability that a meteor strikes New York while Jeter is out of town between now and next fall, thereby eliminating the Yankees as a possibility.
The latest from FOX's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi:
This is part one in a series of columns looking at this winter's free agents, trade candidates and non-tender possibilities. I'll be making predictions for the key free agents, but try not to take them too awfully seriously. The catchers are up first.
Bengie Molina (Giants) - While his stock appears to be down a bit, Molina still stands out as the top catcher available in free agency and should command a multiyear deal as a result. He's hit between .265 and .295 with 15-20 homers in five straight seasons, and that kind of consistency will be valued, even by the teams that recognize his brutal OBP, not to mention his total lack of speed, makes him a weak option in the middle of the lineup. I count eight teams in the market for a starting catcher: the Astros, Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Reds and Royals. Of the group, Seattle and San Francisco are the only clubs at all likely to stay in house. A return to the Giants is likely out for Molina unless a multiyear offer fails to materialize. They're not going to want to block Buster Posey behind 2010. Prediction: Mets - two years, $11 million
Miguel Olivo (Royals) - Olivo had a career year, finishing with 23 homers and a 781 OPS, and the Royals still weren't interested in bringing him back. It says a lot about him as a player. Olivo swings at everything, and it's gotten him a .278 career OBP. He's also frustrated his employers with his inconsistency behind the plate. He has the tools of a quality defensive catcher, but he's awfully erratic. On the plus side, he really does have the power to hit 20 homers annually for a couple of more years. That skill figures to land him a starting job and perhaps a two-year deal. Prediction: Astros - one year, $5 million
Ramon Hernandez (Reds) - Declining Hernandez's $8.5 million option was an easy call, but the Reds are interested in re-signing the 33-year-old, even though he hit an unimpressive .258/.336/.362 and played in only 81 games in his first season with the club. Hernandez would be a reasonable investment at half of the option price, and he's not at all likely to get a multiyear deal after such a down year. He hasn't been an above average catcher since 2006, but in such a weak field, he still seems like one of the better choices out there. Prediction: Reds - one year, $4 million
Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies) - The Rockies offered Torrealba a two-year deal to stick around as a part-timer, but he's decided to explore his options. After all, even though Torrealba won back his old job in the second half, Chris Iannetta still figures to be the Rockies' long-term catcher. Torrealba is a fine choice to start 60-70 games per year, but to push him beyond that would be to ask for trouble. He's likely a plan B for a bunch of teams this winter. Prediction: Giants - one year, $3 million
Rod Barajas (Blue Jays) - The 19 homers and 71 RBI that Barajas produced in 2009 would have drawn more oohs and aahs in free agency if he wasn't so similar yet inferior to Molina and Olivo offensively. Fortunately, he does rate as the best defensive catcher of the likely starters available in free agency. The Jays are kicking around the idea of bringing him back, though their interest in Chris Snyder suggested that Barajas is on the backburner. The 34-year-old seems just about perfect for Kansas City. Prediction: Royals - one year, $2.5 million
Ivan Rodriguez (Rangers) - After a nice August, Pudge ended up just as unproductive with the Rangers as he did in his four months with the Astros to begin 2009. In fact, he finished with OPSs in the 660s in both stops. Rodriguez is a future Hall of Famer, but at this point, it's fine to think of him as Barajas without the power. Prediction: Rangers - one year, $1.5 million
Other free agents: Brian Schneider (Mets), Jason Kendall (Brewers), Gregg Zaun (Rays), Ramon Castro (White Sox), Jose Molina (Yankees), Josh Bard (Nationals), Henry Blanco (Padres), Brad Ausmus (Dodgers), Mike Redmond (Twins), Jason LaRue (Cardinals), Michael Barrett (Blue Jays), Chris Coste (Astros), Paul Bako (Phillies), Vance Wilson (Royals), Matt Treanor (Tigers), Chad Moeller (Orioles), Kevin Cash (Yankees), Jamie Burke (Nationals), Eliezer Alfonzo (Padres), Corky Miller (Reds), Mike Rabelo (Marlins), Eric Munson (Athletics), Rob Bowen (FA), Sal Fasano (Rockies), Paul Phillips (Rockies), Wilkin Castillo (Reds), Robby Hammock (Orioles)
Schneider and Kendall remain candidates to land starting jobs, no matter how much they've declined. Perhaps the Royals will bite, or the Mariners or Giants could latch on to one to serve as a bridge to the younger options. ... Zaun and Castro are the cream of the backup crop. Jose Molina could also be viewed as part of that group, but it'd be a surprise if the Yankees didn't bring him back. ... Besides the Yankees, teams likely to sign backups include the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rangers, Rays, Rockies and White Sox. ... Barrett can't be completely forgotten about, but a lost 2009 due to injury probably means that he'll have to head to the minors in an attempt to work his way back.
Trade candidates: Russell Martin (Dodgers), Mike Napoli (Angels), Ryan Doumit (Pirates), Kelly Shoppach (Indians), Gerald Laird (Tigers), Dioner Navarro (Rays), Chris Snyder (Diamondbacks), Taylor Teagarden (Rangers), Ronny Paulino (Marlins), Landon Powell (Athletics), Lou Marson (Indians), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), J.R. Towles (Astros), Shawn Riggans (Rays), George Kottaras (Red Sox), Dusty Brown (Red Sox), Max Ramirez (Rangers), John Jaso (Rays), Clint Sammons (Braves), Robinzon Diaz (Pirates), Wyatt Toregas (Indians), Matt Pagnozzi (Cardinals)
It'd be an extreme case of selling low if the Dodgers parted with Martin now, and for what it's worth, there's been nothing recently to suggest it might happen. Oddly, the organization seems happier with him now than it did following his far superior 2008 season. ... The Angels could keep Napoli and still provide Jeff Mathis with an expanded role if they decline to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero and give Napoli some time at DH. Still, Napoli's name seems likely to come up, particularly if the Angels go asking the Jays about Roy Halladay.
Doumit seems more likely to go in an in-season deal since his stock is down. ... Shoppach is due $2.5 million or so in arbitration, and the Indians could turn to Marson behind the plate. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Shoppach serving as Milwaukee's catcher on Opening Day. ... The Tigers could save money by moving Laird and going with Alex Avila and Dusty Brown behind the plate. ... Snyder was nearly traded to Toronto already and almost certainly will go at some point, though perhaps not until spring training. ... The Rangers have chosen Jarrod Saltalamacchia over Teagarden as their long-term catcher, though Salty's shoulder surgery has increased the chances that Teagarden will stick around a little while longer. ... I'm assuming that Powell will stay in Oakland as Kurt Suzuki's backup, but the A's would listen is someone wants him for an expanded role. He delivered seven homers and seven doubles in 140 at-bats last season.
Non-tender candidates: John Buck (Royals), Humberto Quintero (Astros), Mike Rivera (Brewers), Wil Nieves (Nationals), Raul Chavez (Blue Jays), Dusty Brown (Red Sox), Eli Whiteside (Giants), Ryan Budde (Angels), Jose Lobaton (Rays), Drew Butera (Twins), Luke Carlin (Diamondbacks)
Playing about half as often as usual, Buck quietly hit .247/.299/.484 in 186 at-bats to essentially match Olivo's production in 2009. Still, the Royals want to blow up their catching situation and aren't likely to tender him a contract. He'll land another part-time gig at less than the $2.9 million he earned last season. ... No one else here is particularly notable. Quintero and Rivera could keep their backup gigs if the Astros and Brewers, respectively, pick up true starting catchers. Neither is worthy of more than 30-40 starts per year.
2010-11 free agents: Joe Mauer (Twins), Victor Martinez (Red Sox), A.J. Pierzynski (White Sox), Gerald Laird (Tigers), Jason Varitek (Red Sox), John Buck (Royals), David Ross (Braves)
2011 options: N/A
2011-12 free agents: Yadier Molina (Cardinals)*, Jorge Posada (Yankees), Ryan Doumit (Pirates)*, Chris Snyder (Diamondbacks)*, Kelly Shoppach (Indians), Dioner Navarro (Rays)
2012 options: Molina - $7 million ($750,000 buyout), Doumit - $15.5 million option for 2012-13 ($500,000 buyout), Snyder - $6.75 million ($750,000 buyout)
Good news for San Francisco fans: "Operation Panda" is underway, and if things continue at this pace, the Giants are going to be the biggest winners in the end.
Joan Ryan of the MLB.com blog Inside the Giants Clubhouse reports that budding star Pablo Sandoval has already dropped 10 pounds as he attacks his offseason conditioning program like a jelly donut, even though the season is still nearly five months away.
Head trainer Dave Groeschner said of the one-man camp: "We've never had a player do anything like this - ever.''
"There are no guys who show up in November to get ready for the season,'' Groeschner says. "But this is something Pablo wanted to do. He knows how important it is for him and for the team that he has the endurance to play every game. And what he's doing is not easy. It's an entire life-style change.''
For the first time in his life, Sandoval is lifting weights. He's eating vegetables. He is meeting every Wednesday while he's in Scottsdale with a nutrition professor from Arizona State University, who is teaching him about healthy food choices and portion control. He and his brother, who Sandoval brought with him for motivation and support, are eating catered meals - delivered to the Giants complex every morning in a cooler -- of low-cal entrees like broiled chicken or salmon, and lots of salads, veggies and fruits.
First of all, I love the term "portion control." Don't eat three chickens, Pablo, when one will fill you up just fine.
Secondly, the sloppy, overweight version of Sandoval is already a freak of nature, putting up a .333/.381/.543 line in his first full season while smashing 25 home runs and driving in 90 runs. All of this despite a portly physique (listed at 5-11, 245) and a Guerrero-esque penchant for swinging at anything within reach.
But now the Panda is getting serious. He's replacing cheeseburgers with carrots, fat with muscle. Be afraid NL West. Be very afraid.
Follow me on Twitter at @bharks. For more baseball news, go to NBCSports.com.
The Chicago Cubs are eager to get rid of Milton Bradley. That much is clear.
And here is Jim Hendry's pitch to potential trade partners (as imagined by yours truly):
Milton Bradley is a fine young man who is generally misunderstood. He has a wealth of talent, much of it as yet untapped. Just look at his career line of .277/.371/.450! Who couldn't use that on their team? I know there was some controversy surrounding him in Chicago this past season but I'll tell you how I'm going to help you forget about that: I'm going to eat half of the remaining $21 million left on his contract. Just for you, because I like you. How's that sound for a deal? Are you ready to sign? *Pulls out pen*
Hendry's used-car pitch is apparently effective. There have been rumors of a trade in the works with Toronto, as Matthew detailed earlier today. And the Rangers, obviously remembering Bradley's league-leading .999 OPS in 2008, have shown interest in bringing him back.
Enter Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who makes a point-by-point plea for the Rangers to avoid such temptation.
Grant mentions the poor 2009 season Bradley had in Chicago, and his durability issues (124 games in 2009, 126 in 2008), but things get even more interesting when the author gets into chemistry issues.
Bradley said after signing with the Cubs that he didn't play in some selected games with the Rangers down the stretch in 2008 to protect his statistics in order to put himself in the best negotiating position. The Rangers have harped on a team-first approach as a big rallying cry for the 2010 season. There is no way that Bradley's comments and actions can be viewed as anything but selfish.
I hadn't heard that story before, but from everything I've seen about Bradley, it's hardly surprising. Wherever he goes, Bradley makes himself the centerpiece story. He never shies from telling everyone how the world is out to get him, or how he has been wronged in some way.
It has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. With 10 big-league seasons under his belt, Bradley does get ripped frequently, sometimes unfairly. But when you spend your career going on self-indulgent diatribes, hurling things at fans, throwing temper tantrums, trying to charge press boxes, and insulting your fan base, you're going to get a lot less slack from fans and writers alike.
So if you're the Blue Jays, Rangers, or any other team sniffing out a potential bargain in Milton Bradley, don't be fooled by Hendry's spin. And think long and hard about what kind of presence you want in your clubhouse and on your roster.
Remember, if an offer sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
Follow me on Twitter at @bharks. For more baseball news, go to NBCSports.com.
MLB announced Wednesday that the Cubs' Mike Fontenot had won a tiebreaker against Adam Jones and the Reds' Micah Owings to become the last super-two arbitration-eligible player.
All three players had two years and 139 days of service time. Initial reports had the cutoff at 141 days, but that proved to be false.
As we touched on last month, Arizona's Mark Reynolds was another young star who barely missed the cutoff. From that article:
Under the rules of MLB, players with between three and six years of service time, as well as the top one-sixth of players with between two and three years, qualify for arbitration after every season. Those top one-sixth are known as "super-two" players, and that one rule is why we've seen teams so cautious about promoting prospects in April and early May during recent years.
The Orioles don't stand to gain quite as much as the Diamondbacks did with Reynolds, but Jones, who just claimed a Gold Glove on Monday, could have earned $3 million or so next year had he qualified for arbitration. Now he'll probably receive $500,000-$600,000. The difference will also be felt in future years, as super-two players traditionally do better financially all of the way through their arbitration years.
As for Fontenot, the Cubs were already expecting him to qualify for arbitration. He probably won't earn more than $1 million, but he doesn't appear to be in the team's plans anyway, and he could be traded or non-tendered this winter.
Other super-two players include Tim Lincecum, Hunter Pence and Matt Garza. The recently traded Carlos Gomez also made the cutoff, but the Brewers were accounting for that when they picked him up for J.J. Hardy. Alex Gordon is another super-two player. He was due to have three full years in before the Royals manipulated his service time in August to gain control of him for another year.
Forget the Hall of Fame, Pete Rose has a new, far worthier cause to throw his lobbying efforts behind. Yes, that's right, baseball's all-time hit king is pushing for Playboy to feature his girlfriend in a pictorial.
Rose took his pitch public in an interview with KGOW in Houston (from SportsRadioInterview.com, via USA Today):
"My girl has finally decided to try to shoot for Playboy, and they were kind enough to give her an opportunity to come to Houston next week for an interview, and we're excited about that. She's beautiful, she's young, educated -- there's a lot of qualities."
That's Rose and his girlfriend - he hasn't revealed her name - above at a Vitaly Klitschko bout in Los Angeles in September. Rose, who turns 69 in April, wasn't shy about gushing about her in the interview, but did somehow keep his ego in check when asked about their age difference.
"Oh, no. You got to stay young, keep yourself young. And that's all part of it. You know, I work in Vegas 17 days a month at The Field of Dreams store, and you know, my girl's a real educated girl -- she graduated from Arizona State. She had a very prestigious job several years ago when she was a flight attendant for Korean Airlines, which is really a big deal in Korea, and she's Korean. And let's just hope that the Playboy people like her, and if they don't, that's okay too. We'll just turn the page and thank them for the opportunity."
Rose notched the last of his 4,256 career hits back in 1986, yet he continues to impress. First Playboy, then Cooperstown? Whaddya think?
If I were a betting man, I'd say Rose eventually gets into the Hall of Fame, probably some day long after Bud Selig retires. But despite his girlfriend's obvious attributes, including her aforementioned education and job history, I'm not sure a high quality publication like Playboy is right for her. (They gave us Kendra!) They've got standards over there, after all, and her boyfriend bet on baseball, which just isn't right.
You can listen to the Rose interview here.
Follow me on Twitter at @bharks. For more baseball news, go to NBCSports.com.
It looks likes Bobby Valentine will be spending 2010 doing studio work at ESPN, as the Nationals confirmed Wednesday that they're sticking with Jim Riggleman as the manager for 2010.
Riggleman took over the team on an interim basis midway through last season, and the club improved from 26-61 under Manny Acta to 33-42 the rest of the way.
The Nationals are the fourth team Riggleman has managed. Overall, he's 555-694, good for a .444 winning percentage. Just once in seven full seasons has he managed a contender; his 1998 Cubs beat the Giants in a one-game playoff to finish 90-73 before being swept by the Braves in the NLDS.
Riggleman and Valentine appeared to be the only serious candidates for job. The Nationals wanted to interview Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly, but he wasn't interested. Former Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin was mentioned as a possibility, but he might actually be in line to take over as the team's bench coach.
No one has ever accused the Nationals of making inspired choices, and they certainly took the cautious route here. Valentine would have brought moments of brilliance and occasional controversy. Riggleman will do neither, and that's just fine with a Nationals organization still trying to distance itself from the Jim Bowden circus.
Jason Varitek will be back with the Red Sox for a 14th season in 2010 after exercising his $3 million player option on Wednesday.
Varitek knew he wouldn't do any better financially as a free agent, but he might have been able to find more playing time elsewhere. The Red Sox have already started that Victor Martinez will be used as a regular catcher next season.
Forgotten in all of Varitek's late-season struggles was that Boston's captain was one of the AL's top offensive catchers for four months. He hit .236/.345/.453 before Martinez's acquisition on July 31 resulted in a reduced role. From that point on, he was truly dreadful, coming in at .135/.233/.250 in August and .125/.185/.150 in 40 at-bats in September. The Red Sox never used him while being swept by the Angels in the ALDS.
The Red Sox figure to use Varitek primarily against lefties in 2010. While the plan is for Martinez to get most of his starts at catcher, it will still make sense to use him at DH or first base once per week or so. The switch-hitting Varitek has had an OPS over 800 against southpaws each of the last three years. DH David Ortiz, on the other hand, has declined from 852 in 2007 to 741 in 2008 and 716 in 2009.
*The Yankees are expected to inquire about Roy Halladay, and new Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said trading within the AL East will "never be a stumbling block" for him.
The Red Sox figure to get back into the chase for Halladay is that's the case. The Phillies still have the young talent to pull off a Halladay acquisition, though they may run into budget issues at some point. Also, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal believes the Angels could again target Halladay, particularly if they fail to re-sign free agent John Lackey.
It makes all kinds of sense for the Jays to trade Halladay now. They're big long shots for 2010 anyway, and there may well be more quality starters available at the trade deadline next year than there are in free agency right now. With Tim Hudson out of the mix, there's a huge drop-off from John Lackey to Randy Wolf, Rich Harden and the rest of the free agent options.
The Yankees' chances of landing Halladay would likely hinge on their willingness to part with Jesus Montero, who may well be the second biggest offensive talent in the minors behind Atlanta's Jason Heyward. One of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would likely have to be involved as well. Hughes has the greater value of the two at this point, and it's highly unlikely that the Bombers would part with both he and Montero. The packages that make the most sense are Chamberlain and Montero or Hughes plus outfielder Austin Jackson.
The Red Sox would probably be willing to part with Clay Buchholz if it would allow them to keep both Casey Kelly and Daniel Bard. The Jays, though, would likely insist on acquiring two of the three, particularly since most of the rest of Boston's intriguing prospects are in the low minors. One exception is outfielder Josh Reddick, who could be positioned as a potential long-term replacement for Alex Rios.
The Jays would want three from the Phillies big four: J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor. The Angels have less talent to part with than usual, though the Jays would presumably be very interested in Erick Aybar if he was made available. Mike Napoli, Brandon Wood and right-hander Jordan Walden would also be brought up in talks.
*Lyle Overbay, who was nearly traded back to Arizona for Chris Snyder last week is now a possibility for Seattle after the Mariners were turned down by their own free agent, Russell Branyan.
Perhaps this is nothing more than the Mariners trying to put some heat on Branyan, who is holding out for a two-year deal. Overbay's name is getting kicked around everywhere else, so if the Mariners could figure that throwing their hat into the ring will cause Branyan to reconsider their offer of one year and an option.
If there's actually something to the rumor, then outfielder Michael Saunders and infielder Matt Tuiasosopo could be possible returns for Overbay, who will earn $7 million next year and then become a free agent. The idea of going year to year with their first baseman is attractive to Seattle, since prospect Mike Carp isn't far away. The Blue Jays are open to moving Overbay because they're interested in installing Adam Lind at first base.
*The Toronto Sun's Bob Elliott believes the Jays still have some interest in Milton Bradley and repeats the Bradley-Lyle Overbay-Luis Castillo rumor that made the rounds on Monday.
Bradley makes an awful lot of sense for the Jays if the Cubs are willing to pay a chunk of the $21 million he's owed over the next two years. Bradley is being viewed as a liability because of that salary and maybe he is, but he just led the entire American League in OPS with the Rangers in 2008. With Overbay out of the picture, the Blue Jays would have the option of using him as a full-time DH or rotating him into the outfield when he's healthy. There's probably nothing to the three-team proposal involving the Mets, but Bradley is there for the taking if the Jays want him.
As a career .272/.344/.484 hitter with a good glove in center field Curtis Granderson is one of the better all-around players in the league. He's also just 28 years old and under team control through 2013 at around $9 million per season.
All of that would seemingly make him a long-term building block in Detroit, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that "the Tigers have let teams know that Granderson could be had for the right package."
Sherman naturally focuses on the Yankees' potential interest, but any number of teams would likely line up for a shot at a 28-year-old who's been worth an average of about 50 runs more than a replacement-level center fielder during the past four seasons.
Toss in various rumors about the Tigers shopping Edwin Jackson and it's pretty clear that general manager Dave Dombrowski is suddenly working under some very tight payroll constraints. Not only did Detroit give Magglio Ordonez enough playing time down the stretch to trigger his $18 million for next season, the Tigers still have over $30 million committed to Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Bonderman, and Nate Robertson.
Time to pat yourselves on the back, NL managers and coaches: you weren't nearly as dim as your AL counterparts in your Gold Glove selections:
C Yadier Molina
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Ryan Zimmerman
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Michael Bourn
OF Matt Kemp
OF Shane Victorino
P Adam Wainwright
I think pretty much everyone will agree that those nine players are all above average fielders. The most encouraging development was that the voters finally rewarded Zimmerman at third base after choosing the mediocre David Wright the previous couple of years. Wright's chances of a third straight Gold Glove were damaged by his injury, but I thought Kevin Kouzmanoff might get it, especially with the Padres doing everything they could to boost his candidacy. Fortunately, Zimmerman, the far rangier player, got it despite committing 17 errors to Kouz's three.
Catcher was a no-brainer. My pick at first base would have been Derrek Lee. Albert Pujols was just too sloppy this year, and Lee gets to more balls than Gonzalez. Gonzalez, though, is rock solid. Chase Utley and Clint Barmes were both better than the declining Hudson at second base. The NL's best shortstop, Jack Wilson, was traded out of the league, though Rollins surely would have topped him anyway. My choice would have been Troy Tulowitzki.
I'd have voted for Bourn, Nyjer Morgan and Mike Cameron in the outfield. Kemp is much, much improved, but he's still a notch below the elite guys. Victorino is simply overrated. With Morgan, Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus likely to spend full seasons in center next year, Victorino shouldn't be looking at a long run as a Gold Glover.
Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Joe Mauer and the Twins "have begun talking about a new deal."
Walters offers no real details beyond that, and mentions nothing about the money or contract length being discussed, but does have a few quotes from team president Jerry Bell:
I feel good about it because I think he wants to stay here, and we sure want him to be here and all of his teammates want him to be here. We'll see. I'm past the point where I get nervous about these things. It'll get worked out. They usually do. We usually are able to work something out with players who we really want to keep. I don't think you need to characterize confident or not confident. I'm confident that we will have a good negotiation. To say I'm confident of the outcome, I don't know. He has a good agent. We've done deals with him before.
Bell's statement that "we usually are able to work something out with players who we really want to keep" is interesting in light of the Twins losing Torii Hunter to free agency and trading Johan Santana to the Mets. Both players were hugely valuable and immensely popular in Minnesota, yet rightly or wrongly the Twins made no legitimate effort to retain either of them.
Mauer, who figures to be named AL MVP later this month, will earn $12.5 million next season before becoming eligible for free agency. Ultimately if he wants to sign the largest possible contract the Twins are highly unlikely to win a bidding war on the open market, but the hope in Minnesota is that the St. Paul native will be content to sign a huge deal while still leaving some money on the table.
* Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos revealed that trading Roy Halladay within the division "will never be a stumbling block." That's a smart approach, if only because it's tough to get maximum trade value for a big-name player without involving the Yankees and Red Sox to some extent.
* General manager Doug Melvin hinted yesterday that the Brewers may go young at catcher rather than re-sign veteran Jason Kendall. "We paid $5 million for the position in the past," Melvin said. "I don't know if we can do that again." Milwaukee has a pair of upper-minors catching prospects in Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome, and Kendall hit just .241/.331/.305 this season.
* John Smoltz reiterated that he wants to pitch in 2010, and it sounds like both sides are open to another season in St. Louis after he posted a 4.26 ERA and 40/9 K/BB ratio in seven starts with the Cardinals following a brutal stint in the AL.
* Jermaine Dye admitted yesterday that "it doesn't look good" for his chances of a sixth season with the White Sox after the team chose a $1 million buyout over his $12 million option for 2010.
Less than four months ago the Reds traded three players to the Blue Jays for Scott Rolen and the $11.8 million remaining on his contract for 2010, but now Ed Price of Fanhouse reports that they "need to slash payroll" and may be forced to shop high-paid veterans Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo.
Harang and Arroyo are solid starters, but they're hardly top-of-the-rotation material and Cincinnati would likely have to eat some salary to get either of them off the books. Arroyo is owed $11 million next season and $11 million or a $2 million buyout for 2011. Harang is owed $12.5 million next season and $12.75 million or a $2 million buyout for 2011. Good luck shedding those contracts in this environment.
Phillips would be far easier to trade, because he's 28 years old, excellent defensively at second base, hit .276/.329/.447 with 20 homers and 25 steals this season, and is owed a more palatable $17.75 million over the next two seasons with a $12 million option or $1 million buyout for 2012. Ironically, general manager Walt Jocketty explained that the extent of the payroll issues may be determined by offseason ticket sales, which will no doubt be hurt by talk of the team having to deal away well-known players.
Getting rid of closer Francisco Cordero and the $25 million that he's owed over the next two seasons would seemingly be another option to lessen the payroll, but Price notes that the Reds "would prefer to keep" him. Apparently paying $12.5 million per season for a closer who pitches 70 innings is absolutely vital for a team that hasn't finished above .500 since 2000. Or something.
Chien-Ming Wang is making his way back from June shoulder surgery and plans to begin a throwing program on December 1 with an eye toward being ready for game action as soon as mid-April, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are giving serious thought to non-tendering him.
While that's not necessarily surprising given Wang's arbitration eligibility and $5 million salary this season, Sherman also notes that the Yankees may "not even offer him" an incentive-laden contract to return, basically choosing just to part ways with the 29-year-old right-hander who went 54-20 with a 3.79 ERA before falling apart in 2009.
FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reports that the Phillies "are showing preliminary interest" in Fernando Rodney.
General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has rightfully made upgrading the bullpen a priority this offseason, but as I wrote about earlier this week Rodney may not be the right guy to target.
His going 37-for-38 converting saves this season vastly overstates the effectiveness of a 33-year-old pitcher with a 4.28 career ERA, although it's unclear if the Phillies would be looking at Rodney as a potential replacement for Brad Lidge at closer or merely as a compliment to Ryan Madson in the seventh and eighth innings. Either way, the shiny save totals are likely to make him significantly overpaid and there are far better setup options available.
Ken Griffey Jr.'s return to Seattle was a success in so much as Mariners fans seemed to enjoy having him back and the team made major strides following a horrible 2008, but his actual performance was awful.
Griffey showed that he still has plenty of power and patience with 19 homers and 63 walks in 454 plate appearances, but he batted just .214/.324/.411 for a career-worst .735 OPS and was almost exclusively limited to designated hitter duties.
When he started dropping hints about wanting to return for a 22nd season at the age of 40 it seemed obvious that the Mariners wouldn't--or at least shouldn't--be interested in a second go-around. While the reunion was nice in a rebuilding season, the team seemingly has bigger plans for 2010 that should involve an upgrade at DH.
All of which is why this report from Larry Stone of the Seattle Times is surprising: Griffey and the Mariners have agreed to a one-year deal for 2010. Certainly getting sub par production from a part-time designated hitter is far from disastrous and won't make or break the team in 2010, but it looks like nostalgia, loyalty, and perhaps some extra ticket sales will keep the Mariners from what would be a pretty easy upgrade.
Of course, that's easier said than done with an incredibly popular future first-ballot Hall of Famer, but this isn't exactly a Brett Favre and the Packers situation. Griffey has hit just .234/.340/.418 in 1,029 plate appearances spread over the past two seasons, is no longer capable of playing the outfield regularly, and the Mariners' lineup needs all the help it can get after ranking dead last in scoring this year.
Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd said yesterday that he's not actively looking to trade Brad Hawpe, but admitted that he's listening to offers for the 30-year-old outfielder just weeks after saying that "we have no desire to move him at all."
Hawpe is signed for $7.5 million next season and the Rockies hold a $10 million option or $500,000 buyout for 2011, but he's become expendable with Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Seth Smith providing younger, cheaper outfield options.
His outfield defense is awful, but Hawpe could be an attractive target for contenders looking to add a big bat to the middle of the lineup. Over the past four seasons he's hit .288/.384/.518 with an OPS above .875 every year, and while Coors Field has no doubt padded his overall numbers Hawpe has batted .280/.375/.489 on the road. He's a lifetime .283 hitter with 25-homer power and excellent plate discipline, and is essentially signed to a two-year, $17.5 million deal.
Meanwhile, the Denver Post reports that the Rockies also "continue to explore trade prospects" for Garrett Atkins and plan to release him if they can't find a taker by November 20. Unlike with Hawpe, the market for Atkins figures to be non-existent. Or at least it should be. Saunders lists the Phillies, Angels, Rangers, and Orioles as possibly having interest, but over the past four seasons his OPS has dropped from .965 to .853 to .780 to .650 and he's a career .252/.324/.411 hitter away from Coors Field.
Toss in poor defense at third base and Atkins is no longer starting material, let alone worth trading for and taking to arbitration following a season in which he earned $7 million. If the Rockies are interested in dealing Hawpe they should have no problem finding a taker willing to part with a decent prospect or two, but look for Atkins to hit the open market next week after being released. He's now just a shell of the guy who hit .329/.406/.556 with 29 homers and 120 RBIs in 2006.
Most of the Hall of Fame arguing this winter will be over Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Barry Larkin and Robby Alomar. But there are managers and executives to be considered as well:Twenty former major league managers, umpires and executives will be considered for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame for induction in 2010 by two Veterans Committees, with results of a Dec. 6 vote to be announced Dec. 7 at baseball's Winter Meetings, it was announced today . . .The 10 managers and umpires eligible for election consideration to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2010: managers Charlie Grimm, Whitey Herzog, Davey Johnson, Tom Kelly, Billy Martin, Gene Mauch, Danny Murtaugh and Steve O'Neill; umpires Doug Harvey and Hank O'Day.Picking managers for the Hall of Fame is an exercise in subjectivity (at least until this book comes out, anyway). Yes, at some point a handful of rings trumps everything else, but how does one really distinguish between Tom Kelly and Davey Johnson? Between Whitey Herzog and Billy Martin? I think objective cases can be made for all of those guys, but the "fame" part of "Hall of Fame" may count for more in the case of these guys. If I had to pick I'd say yes to Herzog and probably Martin and no to the other ones mentioned, but I'll be honest and say that a lot of that has to do with me simply liking them more than the other candidates. Your counterarguments are welcome.
The 10 executives eligible for election consideration to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 2010: Gene Autry, Sam Breadon, John Fetzer, Bob Howsam, Ewing Kauffman, John McHale, Marvin Miller, Gabe Paul, Jacob Ruppert and Bill White.
I'm a National League guy and I've never been a big fan of the DH. It's not a superiority thing or an elitist thing -- I know that pitchers can't bat -- it's just a familiarity thing in my case. I've watched tons more NL ball than AL ball in my lifetime, I just like it better, and you have as much a chance at talking me out of that position than you do talking the Pope out of Catholicism.
The American League went from All-Star Game whipping boy and an entity lacking the NL's diversity and overall pizzazz to where it is today: dominant for the simple reason that nine hitters in a lineup are better than eight.I can't argue with the underlying logic, and that's saying something here because I can argue with just about everything Bill Conlin says. But he's right: it's not aesthetically pleasing to watch fat, old players who can't play defense anymore, but there's no escaping the fact that they're more effective in the batter's box than a pitcher. And while there are other things in play leading to the AL's competitive advantages -- having two teams in the Yankees and Red Sox driving higher payrolls being chief among them -- the DH has contributed to that as well. George Will probably said it best in his book Men at Work:And where the disparity really kills the National League in the World Series and in the equally lamentable interleague play is in the No. 9 spot. With their DHs typically power bats of the Matsui, David Ortiz, Vlad Guerrero stripe, most teams configure their lineups to put speed and contact at No. 9. A second leadoff hitter, if you will . . .
. . . Once again, I call for the National League to restore the measure of competitive balance the DH rule has drained from the game since 1973. It's not because I like it - although the National League sometimes reminds me of an auto industry where the automatic transmission was never invented.
I'm almost always going to go with evidence over ideology, but in this case I'll make an exception. Personally I hope the NL holds out. Not everything has to be about offense and vive la difference, don't you know.
"The best case for the DH is this: It represents that rarest of things, the triumph of evidence over ideology. The anti-DH ideology is that there should be no specialization in baseball, no division of labor: Everyone should play "the whole game." That theory is obliterated by this fact: Specialization is a fact with or without the DH. Most pitchers only go through the motions at bat."
Contrary to yesterday's reports that he had already exercised his $3 million option, Jason Varitek held out yesterday, apparently trying to get the Red Sox to renegotiate its terms in an effort to make the incentives more attainable. That according to the Globe's Pete Abraham, who reports that Scott Boras and Theo Epstein had a late meeting about it all last night. Pete notes, however, that Theo doesn't sound all that enthused about renegotiating anything, saying that the existing option "seems like a straightforward thing." Varitek has until today to make his decision. I can't feature him having any other prospects out there apart from minor league deals and non-roster invites, so if he doesn't exercise it, it would suggest that he doesn't want to play anymore. I think he exercises.
The uber-agent on his free agent client, Johnny Damon:"His durability is off the charts," Boras said, referring to Damon's streak of 14 straight seasons with 140-plus games played. "Chronological age does not have anything to do with a player of his genetics. Certainly you have to look at the Yankees' history and what they've paid players of his like age who maybe did not have his genetics."I'll grant Boras that no player technically has Damon's genetics insofar as, last I checked, he doesn't have an identical twin playing baseball. But it sounds to me that what Boras is really saying is "given that I represent the top free agent left fielder in Matt Holliday, it would be a conflict of interest for me to say that Johnny Damon is the best candidate for the Yankees, so I have made up some B.S. metric called "genetics" with which to differentiate him."
Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News says that while the Giants would welcome Bengie Molina back, they only want to give him a single year and don't want to give him a raise. Molina, on the other hand, wants more money and two years. Given that Buster Posey is waiting in the wings in San Francisco there's no reason for the Giants to make anything approaching that kind of a commitment to Molina. And of course, given the Law of Conservation of Molinas, there will always be a roster spot for Bengie someplace else, so he's as good as gone. Possibly to the Mets, Baggarly thinks.
FOX's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi are reporting that, while nothing is imminent, the Tigers are looking to deal Edwin Jackson in an effort to shed some payroll. Jackson only made a bit over $2 million last year, but he's arbitration eligible, and coming off a 13-9, 3.62 ERA season he's looking at a pretty big raise.Angel Villalona is out of jail yet still facing murder charges in the Dominican Republic after paying the family of the man he allegedly killed $55,000 of an approx. $140,000 settlement, prosecutor Jose Antonio Polanco told The Associated Press on Tuesday.
Polanco said Villalona, one of the Giants' top prospects, is expected to pay another $83,000 to the family of Mario Felix de Jesus Velete.
"The family ... has behaved in an embarrassing manner because they now say that Villalona is not even the person involved in the death," he said. "But the prosecution ... will continue to pursue this case."
Polanco added that the case is expected to be heard in about a month.
Villalona allegedly shot Velete in a bar on Sept. 19. He could face up to 20 years in prison if found guilty. A conviction, though, could be incredibly difficult to attain without the family's cooperation, particularly if more of Villalona's original $2.1 million signing bonus finds its way into the right hands.
While Villalona may well succeed in making the murder charges go away, one can hope it won't be so easy for him to get a visa to play professionally in the United States next year. It'd be disgusting to see him resume his baseball career as though nothing ever happened.
SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that the Phillies are "seriously considering" free agent Chone Figgins.
The 31-year-old speedster doesn't figure to lack for options in free agency, particularly because he can play third base, center field and perhaps second. Figgins to the White Sox has been a popular rumor through the years, but GM Ken Williams has already shot down that possibility, saying the money won't be there.
The Cubs and Yankees, both of whom could pursue center fielders, have also been spoken of as fits for Figgins. The Giants could use the quality leadoff man, but they'd either have to use him in left field or push Pablo Sandoval to first to make room for him. The Red Sox, Mets and Mariners would seem to be less likely suitors.
Philadelphia may end up as the Angels' primary competition to keep the 2009 AL walks leader. Figgins is likely to seek a four-year deal worth somewhere around $12 million-$13 million per year. If the Phillies signed him, he should replace Jimmy Rollins as the team's leadoff hitter. Shane Victorino could keep batting second, while Rollins takes his mediocre OBP to the seventh spot in the order behind Raul Ibanez.
It's that time of year again, so in case you missed it, here's the rundown of the top 111 free agents I did back in late September. Some, like Manny Ramirez, Tim Hudson, Bobby Abreu and Brandon Webb are now off the table.
Nos. 111-91
Nos. 90-71
Nos. 70-51
Nos. 50-36
Nos. 35-21
Nos. 20-11
Nos. 10-1
Beginning on Wednesday, I'll be posting my Free Agent Prediction columns, starting with the catchers.
The Gold Gloves aren't worthy of any real analysis and never have been, but we won't completely ignore them, even if it's likely the best way to treat them.
The AL choices were announced Tuesday, and the managers and coaches voting for them clearly went for offense over defense:
C Joe Mauer
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Placido Polanco
3B Evan Longoria
SS Derek Jeter
OF Torii Hunter
OF Ichiro Suzuki
OF Adam Jones
P Mark Buehrle
It looks like a legitimate All-Star team, with only Polanco standing out as someone who wasn't an offensive force this year.
Of course, overlooked were plenty of elite defenders.
The American League has two standout outfielders, neither of whom was honored. It's baffling that Carl Crawford was again ignored, despite his outstanding reputation throughout the game. Of course, the voters prefer center fielders to corner outfielders, but they're willing to keep going with Ichiro. It's amazing that Jones, who is hardly an exceptional center fielder, beat out Crawford.
That the American League's best outfielder was overlooked was hardly surprising. Franklin Gutierrez was simply brilliant in center field for the Mariners, and he probably rates as the game's best defensive outfielder right now. If he hits 30 homers next year, perhaps the managers will start to take note.
Shortstop was the worst call, as it has been several times before. Actually, Jeter is playing better defense now than he did when he won his first three Gold Gloves, but there's still no way he's better than Cesar Izturis or Adam Everett. Unfortunately, those two didn't put in full seasons. Erick Aybar and Elvis Andrus came closer. But since there was no consensus on who was really the best, Jeter somehow added to his collection.
That's one of the problems with the Gold Gloves. Since the field never gets narrowed down at any point, Jeter could have conceivably won with 25 percent of the vote.
The others are all justifiable selections. Gerald Laird probably had a better season than Mauer behind the dish, but he's hardly spectacular. There were no true standouts at first base. I'd put Dustin Pedroia ahead of Polanco at second, but UZR agrees with managers' pick. Longoria and Chone Figgins were close at third. Ichiro had as good a case as any for the third outfielder along with Gutierrez and Crawford, and Hunter is still clearly above average.
I probably would have gone with Roy Halladay as the pitcher, but then I don't think pickoffs should factor into it -- I see that as a pitching statistic, not a fielding stat. Buehrle is very good even without taking into account his ability to limit the running game, so I'm fine with that one.
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the Cardinals "have yet to present an offer to" Matt Holliday and "acknowledge it is virtually certain their former cleanup hitter will reach the open market."
"We have to be prepared if we can't sign him," general manager John Mozeliak said. "We need to have other options to pursue. And we do. There are always options. If something we pursue with Matt falls through, we're certainly going to re-evaluate where we stand."
Mozeliak added that he doesn't plan to get into a bidding war despite agent Scott Boras' claims that Holliday should command something close to the eight-year, $180 million deal signed by Mark Teixeira last offseason. And he shouldn't, because my guess is that Holliday ends up closer to $100 million than $180 million.
Strauss speculates that the usual suspects like the Yankees, Mets, Angels, and Red Sox will be in the mix for Holliday, but Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News reports that the Mets are unlikely to seriously pursue Holliday or Jason Bay at their expected asking prices and the Red Sox may only turn to Holliday if attempts to re-sign Bay fall through.
Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe did some inferring based on a few Theo Epstein statements and came to the conclusion that the Red Sox may be preparing to spend a whole bunch of money this offseason
Epstein mentioned to Abraham that part of the motivation for restructuring Tim Wakefield's contract yesterday was to save $1.5 million under the competitive balance tax. As the general manager put it: "That's important because there are some things we want to do this winter and we don't have a ton of room under the CBT."
That statement seems fairly innocuous until you realize that the CTB threshold for 2010 is $170 million. Not only was the Red Sox's payroll this year "only" $125 million, Abraham did some math on likely arbitration raises for Jonathan Papelbon, Jeremy Hermida, Hideki Okajima, and Ramon Ramirez, and came to the conclusion that they'll have about $109 million committed for next season before doing anything via free agency.
Here's more from Abraham:
Let's say they sign Jason Bay for $18 million. So now they're at $127 million. Where is that extra $43 million coming from that Theo seemed concerned about? Are the Red Sox leaving room for Roy Halladay and some other superstar? This is total conjecture, of course, and perhaps Epstein was just musing out loud. But perhaps that was a clue that the Sox are, if nothing else, giving themselves the option to make a huge splash.
Last offseason the Yankees were the biggest of big spenders, but this time around it looks like the Red Sox are positioning themselves to do some serious shopping.
Asked yesterday what the Phillies will be looking to upgrade this offseason general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said: "Third base, bullpen, bench."
Despite the lack of "rotation" on that list Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer spoke to "more than one baseball official with knowledge of the Phillies' offseason plan" who said that "the team remains very much in the picture to acquire" Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays.
Philadelphia made a midseason run at Halladay before balking at then-general manager J.P. Ricciardi's sky-high asking price, instead acquiring Cliff Lee from Cleveland for a handful of non-elite prospects. Committing another package of prospects and a huge chunk of the payroll to a second No. 1 starter seems unlikely, but "one rival front-office man" who spoke to Salisbury seems to think that it's possible.
Amaro reportedly turned down Ricciardi's request for J.A. Happ and prospects Kyle Drabek, Domonic Brown, and Anthony Gose. Parting with that quartet in addition to the prospects already shipped to the Indians for Lee would completely wipe out the Phillies' farm system, but for the most part their offensive core should be intact for the long haul and if they could somehow get Lee and Halladay signed to long-term deals ... well, they would be pretty scary for the near future.
As you'd expect, manager Ron Gardenhire had some good and some not-so-good things to say about Carlos Gomez after the Twins traded him to the Brewers:
He irritates people. Sometimes me. We've been trying to get him to calm down and get him to control the situations, and sometimes the situation controls him. There are times when you're like, "Go-Go, you have to see what we're trying to do here." We just had a 25-pitch inning from our pitcher, and he goes up and falls down swinging on the first pitch. Those things get you irritated as a manager, because we want him to recognize what we're doing in a game. But he can play, and he's fun to watch. He's very, very talented and has a lot to learn, yes, but like I said, when you see him out there in center field covering all that ground and then some of the offensive things he can do that other people can't do, that's why the guy is in the big leagues.
Sounds about right. I'd have loved to see how differently things may have turned out for Gomez had he spent 2008 and perhaps even part of this year at Triple-A, but thanks to the Mets rushing him to the majors and the Twins feeling like they needed something immediate to show for the Johan Santana trade we'll never know. Certainly many of those issues that Gardenhire brings up would've been worth working on against International League pitchers rather than American League pitchers.
Before settling on Gomez the Brewers were apparently deep in J.J. Hardy trade talks with several teams. For example, the Boston Globe reports that they turned down the Red Sox's offer of Michael Bowden, insisting instead on either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard. According to the Toronto Globe and Mail they requested either Adam Lind or Travis Snider from the Blue Jays, but new general manager Alex Anthopoulos didn't bite.
Hardy is coming off arguably the worst season of his career, so there's no doubt that the Brewers sold low, but obviously he still had plenty of value around baseball and Milwaukee clearly wasn't just looking to dump him. Bowden is a solid pitching prospect, and guys like Buchholz, Lind, Bard, and Snider are all very promising young building blocks. Gomez got a bum rap in Minnesota and is underrated in terms of current value and future upside, but as a Twins fan I'd probably have traded him for any of those four players.
For years now the White Sox have been linked to Chone Figgins via various trade rumors, but now that he's a free agent general manager Ken Williams made it clear yesterday that he won't be pursuing the speedy infielder, saying: "We don't have that kind of money."
Williams' sudden lack of interest in Figgins is especially interesting given that he'd just finished talking about the White Sox's need for "that ideal leadoff guy" and previously indicated that the team wouldn't be re-signing Scott Podsednik.
However, the Chicago Sun-Times notes that Podsednik may have revised his demands after Williams scoffed at his initial asking price, perhaps opening the door for a return to Chicago. Podsednik hit .304/.353/.412 with 30 steals and 75 runs in 132 games after joining the White Sox on May 1, but hit just .243/.299/.369 in 2007 and .253/.322/.333 in 2008. By comparison, Figgins hit .298/.395/.393 with 42 steals and 114 runs this season and has batted .291/.363/.388 for his career.
There's no doubt that Figgins is far superior to Podsednik as a leadoff man and the White Sox could clear room for him at third base by playing the recently acquired Mark Teahen in right field, which would also improve their defense. Payroll restraints may simply make that impossible, but it's also worth noting that Figgins qualified as a Type A free agent in the rankings released yesterday and thus may have fewer suitors now that teams would relinquish their first-round pick for signing him.
Baseball's president and chief operating officer Bob DuPuy was on "Mike & Mike in the Morning" yesterday, and was asked about the Yankees' alleged buying a title. His response:
"I don't think that's a fair statement. Competitive balance has been a hallmark of the entire tenure of Commissioner [Bud] Selig. The numbers tell an awfully compelling story. Twenty of the 30 clubs have made the playoffs the last 10 years, when we've had eight different World Series champions. There is too much disparity. We'd like to see that gap close. That's why we've been pushing revenue sharing. But if you look beyond the Yankees, that ratio is more compressed than people realize."
That last bit reminded me of the famous Marion Barry quote in which he said that if you take out the killings, Washington D.C. actually has a very very low crime rate. Absolutely true! Totally not comforting!
DuPuy went to call for a reformation of the draft to add international players. Though he didn't say it explicitly, he was also clearly advocating for hard slots on amateur signing bonuses. Both of those things will be demanded by the owners the next time the Collective Bargaining Agreement is up for renewal. If I had to guess now, I'd say that the players will give that to the owners, simply because neither of those things directly impact current players.
Finally, DuPuy was asked about the bad umping during the playoffs. In response he dismissed the call for expanded replay and said "Our job is to get the very best umpires on the field and for them to get the calls right." Given that he called some of the plays this postseason "inexplicable" I'm inclined to believe that there are some umpires -- say, Phil Cuzzi and Tim McClelland -- who are going to get blasted back to the stone age as a result of their performance this fall.
That's not enough for some GMs, however, as ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports today:
"The playoffs were a mess," a National League general manager said."There is no reason not to have a replay ump upstairs."Psst! Bob! He's talking about you.A second GM agreed but said he expects no action on replay in 2010. "That speaks to a real lack of vision and leadership at the commissioner's office," he said.
The fellow to the right is Jeff Novitzky, the controversial federal agent who in 2004 led the raid on a drug lab that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled violated the constitutional rights of the baseball players who took drug tests during the 2003 steroid survey. That ruling came after a previous, smaller panel of the same court weighed in. Which itself came a couple of years after the trial court weighed in. In other words, this thing has been dragging on forever.
Forever is about to get longer, though, because now the court is asking Players Association and the government whether an even larger, damn nigh unprecedented panel of appeals court judges should weigh in on the issue. The the court things that all 27 -- yes, 27 -- judges should hear the case, the thing could drag on for another two years. And that's before the U.S. Supreme Court gets a chance to weigh in.
From a legal perspective it blows my mind that the court is so uncomfortable with its ruling -- a ruling that says that the government can't waltz into your doctor's office with a search warrant for a specific patient's records and walk out with the medical records of you and and your kids and your aunt Tilly and everyone. This seems pretty basic to me, but to the extent I'm wrong and it's not basic, it's something that the U.S. Supreme Court is going to have to rule on anyway, so why not get it to them sooner rather than later?
From a steroids-in-baseball perspective we stand in the same place we have stood for many years now: the court order sealing those test results remains in place, Mr. Novitzky's seizure of the 2003 testing records currently stands as a violation the constitutional rights of players who took those drug tests, and anyone who leaks information relating to those 2003 test results is in criminal contempt of a federal court order.
But don't let that stop Mr. Novitzky from continuing to be promoted rather than disciplined and the ignorant from demanding that the names from the famous list Novtizky created be released all the same.
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Nats have narrowed their managerial choices down to two: current skipper Jim Riggleman and Bobby Valentine. However, the Nats are more likely to stay the course than make the sexier pick in Valentine, says Rosenthal, for the simple reason that Riggleman won't demand as much money as Valentine is presumed to want.
One the one hand you can look at this as the Nats being cheap: Valentine is a better manager than Riggleman and the Nats need some identity, so why not pay for it?
But I can't say it's a bad move on their part. The Nats aren't ready to win yet and whether Bobby Valentine plans to be in the game long enough to see the process through -- as opposed to simply get back into the Majors in order to become a viable candidate for other, more attractive jobs -- is an open question. In contrast, given how interminable the Nats' managerial search has seemed to be, we know that Riggleman has patience.
If I'm the Nats, I probably stay the course with company-man Riggleman until the point when they truly look like they're ready to take it to next level. He'll abide by the pitch count restrictions the brass wants to place on Strasburg. He won't rock the boat while the youngins mature. If the team surprises under his watch, great, but mostly he's around until the team starts to look like a winner. Then Washington can court a marquee manager.
Maybe even Bobby Valentine.
That's $82.5 million over five years, but according to SI's Jon Heyman, Lackey "sees himself in a higher echelon than Burnett." I think he's right to see himself that way. He's not as erratic as Burnett, and as Heyman notes in the article, the Yankees admire his toughness.
The Red Sox declined their $5 team option on Jason Varitek yesterday, but the Captain had a $3 million player option that he decided to exercise last night:Varitek is done as a useful player. His bat is subpar and his defense is atrocious. Given that the Sox exercised their option on Victor Martinez, 'Tek will almost certainly be the backup catcher, making those incentives less than likely to kick in absent a Youkilis or Lowell injury that forces Martinez to first base.
NESN learned on Monday night that the 37-year-old Varitek will exercise his $3 million player option for 2010 that includes up to another $2 million in incentives. The move is expected to be formalized on Tuesday and will keep Varitek with the Red Sox through at least the end of 2010.
With the incentives, Varitek would earn an additional $400,000 for starting 80 games in 2010 and another bonus for every 10 starts thereafter.
It's been a good six months since we've heard Mark Cuban say he wants to buy a Major League team. That's gotta be some kind of record. The silence is over, however, as yesterday he said that, sure, he'd buy the Dodgers if they were up for sale. That's a little premature inasmuch as the Dodgers aren't for sale. At least not yet. We're at least a year's worth of McCourt ridiculousness away from that happening.
![Cameron.standard[1].jpg](http://bases.nbcsports.com/Cameron.standard%5B1%5D.jpg)
Who would you take, Mike Cameron or Jason Bay?
It seems like a silly question on the surface. Bay is widely considered the No. 2 position player on the free agent market behind Matt Holliday, while Cameron is largely ignored even in Milwaukee, where he has played the last two seasons.
Over at Fangraphs.com, though, Dave Cameron makes a strong case that Mike Cameron (no relation, I hope, otherwise this whole thing is a sham!) is actually the better player despite his age (36, while Bay just turned 31). Cameron will also come cheaper, making him the better value.
So how can a guy who hits for a lower average and less power (they both strike out a ton) be the better player? The answer is defense, dummy.
Cameron covers center field like a gazelle, while Bay only looks decent in left field at Fenway because Manny Ramirez preceded him there. A run saved is just as good as a run driven in right?
If you think Cameron's on the verge of collapse (he's shown no signs of it) and you don't trust defensive metrics (in this case, the conclusions are pretty obviously true), then you think that they're similarly valuable. In reality, the odds are pretty good that Cameron is going to outperform Bay next season, just as he's done in most every season recently, and he's going to do it for far less money.
If you want a right-handed hitting outfielder this winter, and you don't want to pony up for Matt Holliday, Jason Bay is not the alternative. Call Mike Cameron instead.
OK. You've got me convinced. Now where did I leave my checkbook?
Follow me on Twitter at @bharks. For more baseball news, go to NBCSports.com.
The biggest hit of the holidays won't be a Roy Halladay trade. No, it will be "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2", a new shoot-em-up video game with rockin' graphics and a great multiplayer feature set to hit store shelves on Tuesday in PC, Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 formats.
It's expected to bring in half a BILLION dollars in the first week alone. So yeah, Roy could buy the Blue Jays with that kind of cash. So what does any of this have to do with baseball? Plenty, actually.
There is some controversy around the game, all of it outlined nicely below by my Msnbc.com colleague Todd Kenreck.
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Among the issues creating a stir is a viral video that was released by the game's creator featuring none other than Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels. In the video, a pixilated Hamels emerges from a humvee, dressed in military gear and a Phillies cap.
He goes on what seems like a light-hearted rant against "random grenades", but then drops a couple of curse words as he is blown up by some of the very items he despises.
The language in itself doesn't seem like much of a big deal unless you let young children play these games and surf the web at will, which would be your own fault.
But then the video ends with a "brought to you by" message that contains a thinly veiled homophobic slur. As Kenreck reports, the video was pulled amid concerns that it "promoted hate speech in the gaming community," but it of course lives on at YouTube. (Watch it here, unless your ears are sensitive)
Not sure what I think about the seriousness of this. The video is light-hearted in tone, but does it go too far? One thing for sure: this isn't the kind of publicity Hamels needs. Not after his performances in the playoffs.
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FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal said Monday that the Cubs and Mets have discussed a deal that would send Milton Bradley to New York for Luis Castillo and then onto Toronto for Lyle Overbay.
Rosenthal believes such a deal is a long shot, since the Jays don't appear to be interested in a one-for-one trade. Perhaps that would change if the Cubs sent enough money along with Bradley.
Rosenthal also reported that the Rays have put a Pat Burrell-for-Bradley deal on the table, though they would want the Cubs to pick up a substantial portion of the $12 million that Bradley will make in 2011. Both Burrell and Bradley are due $9 million next year, but Burrell will then become a free agent.
As for the three-team deal, it'd only seem to make sense for the Jays if the Cubs kicked in most of Bradley's 2011 salary. Castillo, who will earn $12 million for two years, has to be viewed as a bit more valuable than Bradley at $21 million. Overbay, at $7 million for one year, has more value than either.
The Mets would see Overbay as a nice one-year option at first base while they wait on prospect Ike Davis. They should be able to find a cheaper stopgap at second than they would at first, though it's also possible that they could make Orlando Hudson a multiyear offer to fill that spot.
The Cubs have room for Castillo at second base and at the top of their order, but there's been some talk of moving Ryan Theriot off shortstop. He's below average there, and a Castillo-Theriot double-play combination would be less than stellar.
Bradley would make a lot of sense for the Jays at a modest price. Toronto needs some more upside in its offense, and the DH spot would be available for him. In the unlikely event of a trade, the Jays would probably put Adam Lind at first base. Bradley could play some outfield, but the club would still need a right fielder to replace Alex Rios.
Torn up Monday was baseball's one truly unique contract.
And, arguably, one of the most foolish.
In April 2005, a then 38-year-old Tim Wakefield made a deal with the Red Sox that gave the team a one-year, $4 million extension for 2006 and $4 million in perpetuity after that. The Red Sox had exercised those options religiously through 2009 and only hesitated on pulling the trigger for 2010 based on Wakefield's recent back surgery.
So, the Red Sox and Wakefield got together for another incredibly amiable round of negotiations and came to a new agreement that gave the knuckleballer a multiyear deal for the first time since he wrapped up a three-year pact in 2005. Wakefield is guaranteed $3.5 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. He will earn $5.5 million next year if he makes 30 starts and $3.5 million in 2011 if he pitches 160 innings. So, if he stays healthy, he could beat the $8 million he would have earned had the Red Sox simply kept exercising their options.
Amazingly, the $5.5 million figure would be a career high salary if Wakefield could reach it. His previous high salary was $4.67 million, from the final year of that three-year deal that ended in 2005.
Wakefield has won 16 games four times in his career. He has 11 seasons in double figures in wins. He's seventh among active pitchers with 189 wins and eighth with 1,979 strikeouts. Through all of that, he's earned a mere $50.495 million, according to Baseball Reference data.
Now, sure, that should be enough to pay for a nice house and at least a year and a half at a decent university. But it's less than the Red Sox paid the Seibu Lions for the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka ($51.111 million). It's less than Darren Dreifort received in his five-year, $55 million deal with the Dodgers signed after 2000. He was 39-45 at that point and 9-15 from then on. It's a small fraction of the $124 million that Mike Hampton has received while racking up 148 career wins.
The Red Sox have been accused of paying too much attention to the bottom line during Theo Epstein's regime, but in this case, they appear to be rewarding a player whose loyalty has left him with a smaller wallet than he would have had otherwise. No, Wakefield was never a candidate for a $50 million deal -- there's just too much suspicion about that knuckler -- but he should have been making at least $7 million-$8 million per year in his upper-30s. To give him some added security now was a nice gesture.
This afternoon Elias Sports Bureau released the 2010 free agent rankings, which determine draft pick compensation received by teams losing players.
Type A free agents require the signing team to send the old team their first draft pick after the 15th overall selection, with the old team also receiving a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds.
Type B free agents don't result in the loss of a draft pick by the signing team, but do compensate the old team with a "sandwich" pick.
In other words, teams may shy away from signing some Type A free agents because it involves giving up a draft pick, whereas there's no penalty for signing Type B free agents. Also of note is that a team must offer a departing free agent salary arbitration in order to receive compensation when they sign elsewhere. Here's the full list of Type A free agents, some of whom (Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, etc.) are already off the market:
Jason Bay, Red Sox
Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
Orlando Cabrera, Twins
Johnny Damon, Yankees
Octavio Dotel, White Sox
Jermaine Dye, White Sox
Chone Figgins, Angels
Mike Gonzalez, Braves
John Grabow, Cubs
Kevin Gregg, Cubs
LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
Matt Holliday, Cardinals
Orlando Hudson, Dodgers
John Lackey, Angels
Cliff Lee, Phillies
Victor Martinez, Red Sox
Bengie Molina, Giants
Melvin Mora, Orioles
Darren Oliver, Angels
Placido Polanco, Tigers
Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
Rafael Soriano, Braves
Miguel Tejada, Astros
Jose Valverde, Astros
Billy Wagner, Red Sox
Randy Wolf, Dodgers
That's a long list, but it's important to note many of those players won't be offered salary arbitration because teams will be afraid of them accepting.
Some notable players who were classified as Type B rather than Type A: Erik Bedard, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Delgado, Mark DeRosa, Vladimir Guerrero, Rich Harden, Nick Johnson, Felipe Lopez, Xavier Nady, Vicente Padilla, Joel Pineiro, Fernando Rodney.
In a pair of no-brainer decisions for 2010, the Red Sox have exercised their $7.1 million option on Victor Martinez and declined their $6 million option on Alex Gonzalez.
Acquired from the Indians at the trading deadline, Martinez hit .336/.405/.507 with 41 RBIs in 56 games for the Red Sox while splitting time between catcher and first base. He'll be Boston's starting catcher in 2010, but also figures to see action at first base and designated hitter thanks to Jason Varitek likely returning via a $3 million player option.
Martinez isn't much of a defender behind the plate, throwing out just 14 percent of steal attempts this year and 24 percent for his career, but as a 30-year-old switch-hitter with a .299/.372/.465 career line he's among the best-hitting catchers in baseball history. Looking at all catchers through the age of 30 he ranks 14th in RBIs, 17th in Runs Created, 19th in adjusted OPS+, and 20th in extra-base hits. He hits like a first baseman and plays a passable catcher, which makes Martinez hugely valuable.
As for Gonzalez, the vast majority of his value comes from a good glove. He was with the Marlins for eight seasons before a one-year stint with the Red Sox and then signed a three-year, $14 million contract with the Reds. He had a career-year in 2007, batting .272/.325/.468 with 16 homers, but missed all of 2008 with a fractured knee and struggled mightily after returning this year. He hit just .210/.258/.296 before the Reds traded him to the Red Sox, but then hit .284/.316/.453 as Boston's starting shortstop.
Gonzalez has been wildly inconsistent but mostly terrible offensively throughout his career, hitting .247/.294/.395 in 11 seasons, but makes up for it with consistently excellent defense that even graded out well after the injury. He's obviously no great shakes, but this offseason's crop of free-agent shortstops is incredibly underwhelming and he'd be a reasonable short-term option for teams not interested in overpaying for someone like Miguel Tejada or Marco Scutaro.
After six years spent as a mostly mediocre setup man Fernando Rodney picked a perfect season to become a full-time closer and go 37-for-38 converting saves, because now he's hitting the open market as a free agent with his value at an all-time high.
However, look past the saves and Rodney really wasn't all that great this season, posting a 4.40 ERA and sub par 61/41 K/BB ratio in 75.2 innings. Those numbers basically match his career totals coming into the year, which included a 4.25 ERA and 253/129 K/BB ratio in 254 frames.
Will blowing just one save in 38 tries make Rodney an "established closer" in the minds of teams looking for bullpen help this offseason? Or will most teams focus on his ability rather than his save totals and see someone who's probably better suited for seventh-inning duties?
Rodney will be an interesting test case for how big-league front offices value saves and the closer role in general. For his part, the 32-year-old right-hander has made it very clear that he'd like to remain in Detroit:
I want to come back to the Tigers. Detroit is the first team I will talk to, but right now, I have to wait. I want them to call me and ask me to sign. I want three years, maybe four [years], but I don't know how it will work out.
I'm sure that general manager Dave Dombrowski would be open to re-signing Rodney, but the odds of Detroit handing him a deal for "three years, maybe four" years seems highly unlikely. Dombrowski and the Tigers should know better than anyone that he's never been a consistently excellent reliever. This season's save totals are nice, but any team paying Rodney for going 37-for-38 figures to be very disappointed at the end of the contract.
* After filing for free agency Ivan Rodriguez said that he hopes to play 2-3 more seasons and wants to re-sign with the Rangers. To which general manager Jon Daniels replied: "Pudge had a good return to our organization, but we're still evaluating other options." Texas likely wants to see how Jarrod Saltalamacchia is doing following shoulder surgery before deciding anything else at catcher.
* MLB.com's Mark Bowman writes that Philadelphia is in good shape to defend the NL title again in 2010 with a mostly intact roster, but in addition to declining Pedro Feliz's option the Phillies announced that they won't attempt to re-sign Brett Myers.
* I'm sure that Yankees fans won't like it, but SI.com's Joe Posnanski wrote a good article about the impact of massive payroll disparities across baseball. During the past six years the Yankees have spent, on average, $55 million more than the second-most expensive team.
* The weekend swap of Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy is mostly good news for the Twins, but does create a few negative ramifications.
* Hideki Matsui as the replacement for Ken Griffey Jr. in Seattle? Greg Johns of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer says maybe.
Today is the start of the annual general manager meetings in Chicago, which are not to be confused with the far more interesting, action-packed, and media-driven winter meetings that begin next month in Indianapolis.
Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald has a preview of what the GMs will be up to for the next 72 hours:
With a nod toward the tough economy, baseball's general managers will give up opulence and luxury for practicality when they convene for their annual meetings, beginning today at O'Hare. Instead of resorts, golf games and lavish dinners, the GMs figure barely to see the sunshine as they hole up at the nation's hub airport for a quick gathering that will end at about noon Wednesday. In addition to the regular business discussions and undoubtedly more talk of instant replay, the GMs figure to mix in a little trade talk.
Asked what he expects to happen at the GM meetings, Cardinals boss John Mozeliak said: "My expectation is that this will be much more about MLB business." Perhaps, but things have gotten off to a very fast start this offseason and it would be surprising if there aren't at least a couple big moves hammered out over the next few days.
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Blue Jays have backed away from a nearly completed Lyle Overbay-for-Chris Snyder trade because of concerns about the catcher's surgically repaired back. Snyder underwent microdiscectomy surgery in September to relieve pressure on a nerve in his back after hitting just .200/.333/.352 this season in his least playing time since 2004.
He's expected to be ready for spring training, but with two years and $11.25 million remaining on his contract new general manager Alex Anthopoulos apparently decided against taking the risk on a replacement for free agent Rod Barajas. Piecoro speculates that the Diamondbacks will continue to shop Snyder, who's purely a backup now that Miguel Montero has emerged as the starter, but may have to wait until spring training to find a taker given the uncertainty surrounding his health.
Also look for Anthopoulos to continue shopping Overbay, because while he had a solid season by hitting .265/.372/.466 in 132 games a mediocre all-around first baseman who's older than the new GM likely isn't part of the long-term plan. Overbay has one year and $7 million remaining on his contract, so he'd certainly be a decent fit for contenders looking for a short-term fix at first base and obviously Anthopoulos' asking price isn't very high.
That's odd to hear. The Rangers never have pitching to spare. In fact, the entire modern history of the Texas Rangers has been a distinct lack of pitching. Until last year, that is, when they were suddenly strong in that department. MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, however, describes the putative strength from which Texas could deal:
Having too many pitchers is certainly a nice problem to have, but if you're a Rangers fan don't get too excited: this time last year the Rangers allegedly had too many catchers and were going to use them to address weaknesses. Then at the trade deadline they were dealing for Pudge Rodriguez. The lesson: you can't plan for a damn thing in this league.The Rangers know that Kevin Millwood (13-10, 3.67 ERA) and Scott Feldman (17-8, 4.08) are their top two starters. They are committed to Tommy Hunter (9-6, 4.10) and Derek Holland (8-13, 6.12) in the middle of the rotation.
McCarthy (7-4, 4.62) ended the season as the fifth starter, but the Rangers are talking about moving Neftali Feliz into the rotation. They also know that they have Matt Harrison and Eric Hurley coming back from shoulder surgery. They know that Dustin Nippert was 3-3 with a 4.65 ERA in 10 starts, and Guillermo Moscoso was 5-4 with a 2.31 ERA at Triple-A Oklahoma. They have talked about moving C.J. Wilson into the rotation as well.
There's no CC Sabathia available this offseason, but between John Lackey, Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez, there are at least three options available for a team looking to upgrade the rotation. ESPN's Buster Olney looks at possible landing pads for each of them.
There are no perfect fits, but Olney likes Lackey in Milwaukee of all places. It actually makes sense though given their needs and the fact that they did offer CC Sabathia a lot of money last year. I suppose there's a chance that that was a phony offer and that they'd never be willing to pay $100 million for a pitcher, but at the very least it shows some guts on Doug Melvin's part, and guts come right after money when it comes to the things a team needs to land a big fish like Lackey.
Olney goes to to discuss the possibilities of Roy Halladay being traded to either the Rangers or the Angels. Those scenarios seem less plausible, mostly because it strikes me as more likely that the Jays would hold on to Doc until next year, hoping to leverage more out of him at the deadline than they could expect right now.
Because there hasn't been a ton of baseball news in recent days, a lot of folks were talking about Sammy Sosa's complexion: as in, he looked like a cross between later period Michael Jackson and a zombie when he showed up at the Latin Grammy Awards over the weekend. No worries, says a friend of his, he's just a victim of a chemical peel and some harsh flashbulbs:Certainly not the first time we've seen a radical transformation from Sosa. Last time we were told that it was a function of weights, aging and flax seed oil or some such nonsense, so we have absolutely no reason to doubt the explanation for the Sosa's current new look.
"He is going through a rejuvenation process for his skin. Women have it all of the time. He was surprised he came out looking so white. I thought it was a body double. Part of [the photo appearance] is just the lighting." Polihronis said Sosa told her the photos are deceiving.
"He was doing a dermatological skin process after years and years [of playing baseball] in the sun," Polihronis said. "It did come out looking weird" in the photos.
We've had a lot of blow by blow of the McCourt divorce, but today comes some added flavor in the form of a background piece on the power couple from the Boston Globe, their former hometown newspaper. Lots of interesting detail, including one passage regarding their earlier bid to buy the Red Sox, which I think will ultimately color the entire situation, at least as it relates to the fate of the Dodgers:"The seller was looking to sell, not swap a ball club for a parking lot,'' says a Major League Baseball official with knowledge of the bidding. "There were guys writing checks for millions of dollars, and Frank was offering a parking lot. He was never seriously considered.''The McCourts' ability to buy the Dodgers was a function of (a) Rupert Murdoch, the former Dodgers' owner, being more interested in Boston parking lots than anyone else reasonably would be; and (b) the fact that, according to people inside the game, the McCourts are friends with Jerry Reinsdorf and others close to Selig, which made them much easier candidates to approve by Major League Baseball than other people to whom Murdoch could have offered the team. The McCourts had no real cash reserves then, and based on the divorce filings we've seen to date, have no cash now. Relatively speaking, of course.
There are a metric butt-ton of third basemen on the market this winter, so the Phillies decided that it was not worth paying their current one $5.5 million:The Phillies have declined the option for 2010 on third baseman Pedro Feliz' contract, general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. announced in a press release. The Phillies had a $5.5 million option, a $5 million salary for 2010 and a $500,000 buyout.They could still bring back Feliz at a lower price. Or the could go after Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre, Garrett Atkins, or Mark DeRosa, all of whom except DeRosa are younger and each of whom bring one thing or another to the table that Feliz does not. Beltre could be the best option in that his defense is just as good as Feliz's and his offensive upside is superior.
Feliz, 34, batted .266 with 12 home runs and 82 RBI in 158 games for the Phillies this past season. With runners in scoring position, he hit a team-best .336, which ranked 13th among all National League players.
According to a report from SI.com's Jon Heyman, the mother of former big league pitcher Victor Zambrano was kidnapped sometime Sunday morning from Zambrano's farm outside of Maracay, Venezuela.
The information came to Heyman via a telephone call from Zambrano's agent Peter Greenburg.
Earlier this summer in Venezuela, the son of Colorado Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba - as well as two of his uncles - were kidnapped. They were later rescued, and Torrealba moved his family to Florida.
Zambrano finished up a seven-year big league career in 2007, compiling a 45-44 record and 4.64 ERA with Tampa Bay, the New York Mets, Toronto and Baltimore.
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Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune is reporting/theorizing that the L.A. Dodgers are re-thinking the whole idea of re-signing pitcher Vicente Padilla in the offseason.
According to Rogers, the Dodgers are "asking hard questions" about the incident last week in which Padilla shot himself in the leg (or was shot by his bodyguard) in what was apparently an accident in his native Nicaragua.
Padilla was let go by the Rangers last season, and there was plenty of talk of him being a negative presence in the clubhouse. Now with the shooting and the lack of clarity behind what happened, it's understandable if the Dodgers are getting cold feet. It certainly seems unlikely Padilla will receive the $12 million he made last season, from the Dodgers or anyone else.
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At least to the San Jose Mercury News, he is:Though it won't be on the same epic scale as a Jackie Robinson or a Muhammad Ali, who sacrificed considerable parts of themselves to bear necessary torches, Lincecum's contribution will stand as part of another movement.Among the greats cited alongside Linceucm in the pot Hall of Fame: Phil Jackson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Robert Parish, Randy Moss, one of the greatest wide receivers in NFL history, and Michael Phelps. The editorial goes so far as to say that between his slacker looks and his apparent love of weed, Lincecum is poised to be a marketing piece for Major League Baseball as it attempts to court younger fans.When marijuana is fully decriminalized and legalized sometime in the next 20 years, sports figures will be among the many whose exceptional accomplishments will have given testimony on its behalf.
Whatever. I don't judge Lincecum at all. I'm a live and let live kind of guy when it comes to such things. Glass houses and stones and all of that. But I know one thing: no matter how forward thinking and cutting edge the people who write these kind of editorials think themselves to be, we won't truly be in the brave new world to which they aspire until the day comes when an athlete finds himself in Lincecum's situation . . .and no one cares at all. Because in the grand scheme of things -- even the scheme having to do with the decriminalization of weed -- this is pretty meaningless.
That's one of the three proposed rule changes Nico of Athletics Nation makes this morning. He's not just talking about manager visits: catcher and infielder pow-wows would be limited too. His reasoning on that one is that conferences in every other sport are limited by the number of time outs and natural breaks in the action at the team's disposal, so why not baseball too? Not sure how I feel about it. On the one hand baseball's lack of a clock makes the time out analogy inapt. On the other, man, I hate those mound meetings. Why not give an advantage to teams that prepare better before the game?
