The Giants could have gone out and picked up Felipe Lopez or Ronnie Belliard to fill a colossal hole at second base at midseason, but they guessed wrong and picked Freddy Sanchez. They may well have lost the NL West in the process.

Not that they deserved to have things turn out so badly. Sanchez was hitting .296/.334/.442 when the Pirates when the Pirates opted to move him at the deadline. That decision was reached not long after Sanchez reportedly turned down a two-year, $10 million extension to stay in Pittsburgh.

The rejection was a no-brainer for Sanchez. At the time, he was on pace to see his $8.1 million option for 2009 vest, and he knew he'd be worth at least that much in free agency anyway.

Unfortunately, things went sour for team and player after the deal. The Giants had to give up a better prospect in Tim Alderson than the Brewers did when they acquired Lopez earlier in the month, and in return, they got next to nothing. Sanchez missed time with shoulder and knee injuries while hitting just .284/.295/.324 in 102 at-bats for the Giants. Lopez ended up at .320/.407/.448 in 259 at-bats for the Brewers.

Because of the injuries, Sanchez missed out on seeing his option vest. That seemed like good news for the Giants, who were taken off the hook.

Giants GM Brian Sabean, though, decided he wanted to keep Sanchez around anyway, even after offseason knee surgery. The new deal is worth $12 million over two years, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. The option was torn up, so the Giants are actually getting him for $11.4 million, since they would have had to pay a $600,000 buyout had they let him go.

It's a reasonable price. Sanchez, our No. 52 free agent, turns 32 this winter, and second basemen can lose it quickly in their early-30s. However, it's more likely that Sanchez will simply remain injury-prone that it is that he'll to turn into an Edgar Renteria-like liability. He's a legitimate .290-.300 hitter, and assuming that he bounces back from knee surgery without incident, an average defender at second base.

Since it's a mere two-year commitment, it's hard to get too excited about this one either way. The philosophy, on the other hand, is a problem. Sabean's tendency to target average players, in the hopes that they'll remain average, certainly hasn't worked out very well for the Giants.

How exactly do we weigh opportunity?

Andy Pettitte has been far from an ace while finishing with ERAs over 4.00 each of the last four seasons, yet he keeps winning 14 games every year and is now up to 229 victories for his career. That comes with being an above average starter for very good teams. Pettitte's career ERA is 3.91, yet he has a .629 winning percentage.

Of course, a 3.91 ERA in today's game is hardly bad. Even though Pettitte has had just two seasons in his career in which he's made at least 30 starts and finished with an ERA under 3.80, his ERA+, which is adjusted for league and ballpark, is 116. Tom Glavine, in comparison, finished only slightly better at 118. Legitimate Hall of Famers Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins and Phil Niekro came in at 115. Pettitte isn't their equal -- they all have big win and inning advantages -- but it demonstrates that the quality of his performance is at a Hall of Fame level.

Where Pettitte's case really comes together is with the addition of postseason stats. Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader with 16 victories, one more than John Smoltz. He's pitched more than the equivalent of a season in October, coming in at 38 starts and 237 1/3 innings (both records). Over that time, he has a .640 winning percentage and a 3.83 ERA.

In the World Series, his ERA has held steady at 3.82, but he's gone 3-4 in 11 starts. His teams are 4-3 in seven World Series. In just one of them did Pettitte pitch badly for a team that lost, as he went 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA against the Diamondbacks in 2001. He went 1-1 with a 0.57 ERA in the loss to the Marlins in 2003, and while with the Astros, he gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision versus the White Sox in 2006.

Pettitte's Hall of Fame case will likely be compared to that of Jack Morris. The two have practically identical career ERAs, with Morris coming in at 3.90. Assuming that he opts to continue his career, Pettitte's will probably be a bit higher by the time he matches Morris' total of 254 victories. Morris, though, pitched in a worse era for offense. His career ERA+ is just 105, which would be historically low for a Hall of Famer.

That Morris gets significant Hall of Fame support is largely because of his postseason record. He did have a couple of poor Octobers to go along with his two fabulous performances, though, leaving him 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA. Besides their strong postseason credentials and the fact that they were typically above average pitchers on good teams, there's not a lot similar about Morris and Pettitte. Morris still has 900 innings on Petttitte. He recorded 175 complete games and 28 shutouts. Pettitte has just 25 complete games and four shutouts.

Pettitte's regular-season career is much more similar to a group of contemporaries who, rightly or wrongly, have no chance of stiffing the Hall of Fame:

	W-L	ERA	IP	ERA+
Pettitte	229-135	3.91	2926	116
Finley	200-173	3.85	3197	115
Wells	239-157	4.13	3439	108
Cone	194-126	3.46	2899	120
Hershiser	204-150	3.48	3130	112
Rogers	219-156	4.27	3303	108
...
Schilling	216-146	3.46	3261	127
Brown	211-144	3.28	3256	127
Mussina	270-153	3.68	3563	123

I'm including Curt Schilling, Kevin Brown and Mike Mussina just to show how much more successful those three were. Pettitte's performance rates a bit above some of the guys from the first group, but his ERA+ may yet suffer as he approaches the higher innings totals. Hershiser, for instance, was at 115 through 1998, when he had 2926 2/3 innings pitched.

So, back to opportunity. Pettitte happened to be signed by the perfect team at pretty much the perfect time. His debut in 1995 coincided with the beginning of one of the greatest runs in baseball history, not that Pettitte didn't have quite a bit to do with that himself. If he had come along a few years earlier and joined the Angels instead, he might have ended up turning in exactly the same career as Chuck Finley. If he had been traded before reaching the majors, he still might be looking for his 200th win, instead of being all of the way up to 229.

Then again, if Pettitte hadn't had to pitch those 238 innings in the postseason, he'd likely have been healthier. If he hadn't had to pitch through soreness so frequently during the decade, his ERA would probably be lower. Pettitte hasn't missed a lot of time, but he's dealt with plenty of nagging injuries. It's fair to say they've taken a toll on his performance.

Pettitte talks about retirement every offseason, but if he chooses to keep going, odds are that he's going to finish with 250 wins. He might get a fifth World Series ring next week, and by the time he's eligible for the Hall of Fame, there's a good chance he'll still be the all-time leader in postseason victories. It might be tough to deny him entry into Cooperstown, though he'd go in without a Cy Young and little in the way of regular season honors. He has just four career shutouts, fewer than Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler and Steve Trachsel. Hershiser had four different seasons with at least that many. He's never led his league in ERA, strikeouts or innings pitched. In fact, he's finished in the top 10 in his league in ERA three times.

It makes Pettitte a unique case. He's probably not going to show up on any more single-season leaderboards, so it's important that he hit a few more career milestones before he's done.

Manager Charlie Manuel announced Friday that Joe Blanton would start Game 4 for the Phillies on Sunday, essentially setting his rotation for the rest of October.

The guess going in was that the Phillies would try to get away with using Cliff Lee in Games 1, 4 and 7. Blanton still figured to start Game 5 in that arrangement, since the team wouldn't want to use both Pedro Martinez and Cole Hamels on short rest.

But no one in red will start on short rest now. After Lee pitches in Game 5, it's safe to assume that the Phillies will go back to Martinez in Game 6 and Hamels in Game 7 on normal rest.

Since the Phillies have bared their hand, we'll have to wait and see if the Yankees follow suit. The assumption was that the Yankees were leaning towards pitching CC Sabathia on short rest in Game 4 and going to Chad Gaudin in Game 5, with A.J. Burnett following on regular rest in Game 6.

The Yankees could back down now and choose the same cautious route that the Phillies have selected. That would involve starting Gaudin in Game 4 and following with Sabathia, Burnett and Andy Pettitte, all on normal rest.

So, now we know just how the Yankees have decided to address that middle-relief problem; they're going to bypass it completely.

A.J. Burnett struck out nine over seven innings and Mariano Rivera pitched scoreless eighth and ninth innings Thursday as the Yankees won 3-1 to send the World Series to Philadelphia deadlocked at one game apiece.

The game was tied at 1 until the bottom of the sixth, when Hideki Matsui took a Pedro Martinez curveball and golfed it over the short porch in right field for a solo homer. Martinez finished the inning from there, and common sense suggested that his night was over after 99 pitches.

Charlie Manuel had other ideas, though. Martinez went back out to start the seventh against Jerry Hairston Jr. Hairston, who started over the benched Nick Swisher because he was 10-for-27 against Martinez, managed to dunk one over Ryan Howard's head into short right. He was immediately removed for Brett Gardner. Melky Cabrera followed by showing bunt on the first pitch. Martinez responded by throwing a high fastball -- a pitch that's very difficult to bunt -- on the second pitch, only to see Melky line it into right for another clean single, putting runners on the corners.

That knocked out Pedro. Jorge Posada singled off Chan Ho Park to make it a 3-1 game, and a couple of oddities followed to keep it at that score. After failing in his first two bunt attempts, Derek Jeter tried one more time and fouled the pitch off, resulting in a strikeout. Johnny Damon then hit a little liner towards Ryan Howard, who was credited with a catch and a double play, even though he short-hopped the ball in truth.

Martinez clearly deserved better for what was a pretty stellar outing. He struck out eight, and while Mark Teixeira's homer in the fourth was legit, Matsui's was a Yankee Stadium shot. Pedro shouldn't have been sent back out for the seventh, yet he was unfortunate that things turned out as badly as they did then. Hairston got only a small piece for the ball he hit for a single, and he simply guessed wrong during Melky's at-bat.

In his first World Series start, Burnett was the big star for the Yankees. He struck out nine, and one of his two walks was intentional. Rivera gave up two hits and a walk in his two innings, but the Phillies couldn't come up with the hits when they needed them.

The Yankees got their win even though Alex Rodriguez went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts for the second straight game. Damon was also dreadful, and given that he's unexceptional against lefties anyway, it'd make more sense to sit him than Nick Swisher if the Yankees want Hairston in the lineup again for Game 3 versus Cole Hamels.

Check back at 8 pm EDT, as I'll be hosting a live chat during Game 2 of the World Series.

Jorge Posada's absence was expected with Jose Molina having caught A.J. Burnett in each of the right-hander's three previous postseason starts, but Yankees manager Joe Girardi made the surprising decision Thursday to remove Nick Swisher from the starting lineup for Game 2 of the World Series and replace him with Jerry Hairston Jr. in right field.

The changes subtract two players who combined for 51 homers and 163 RBI in 864 at-bats this year in exchange for two players who combined for 11 homers and 43 RBI in 521 at-bats.

Swisher has struggled mightily in the postseason, coming in at 4-for-35 with a 12/3 K/BB ratio. Still, that hardly outweighs his 869 OPS for the year or his 924 mark after the All-Star break. Girardi pointed to the fact that Hairston is 10-for-27 lifetime against Phillies starter Pedro Martinez, even though most of those at-bats came many years ago. Most of those hits were singles anyway, and not a one of them drove in a run.

The Phillies have to be feeling awfully encouraged with the Yankees apparently already in panic mode.

The winner of Game 1 has prevailed in each of the last six World Series

It's a streak that started when the Marlins upset the Yankees in six games in 2003. But the truth is that none of the series since have been close. In fact, three were sweeps and the other two ended in five games.

We still figure to see a better battle this time around, but anyone who expected the Yankees to steamroll their opponent from the weaker league got a nasty surprise when Cliff Lee completely shut the team down. It was nearly the first time the Yankees had been shut out in 41 World Series Game 1s.

On the other hand, at least they avoided being shut out back-to-back series games, having been blanked by Josh Beckett to close out the 2003 series.

Besides Lee, Chase Utley was the story. The game's best second baseman homered twice to join Babe Ruth as the only left-handed hitters to homer twice off a left-handed pitcher in the same World Series game. He also reached base in a 26th straight postseason game, breaking Boog Powell's record.

It was an extremely well played game until the eighth. CC Sabathia was wild in the first, but he pitched out of trouble and he went on to have a fine outing, spoiled only by Utley. Utley's solo homers, two of the four hits allowed by CC, both came on two-strike fastballs that caught way too much of the plate.

What has to concern Yankees fans is that neither Phil Hughes nor David Robertson could help keep a 2-0 game close in the eighth. Hughes walked both batters he faced, though a couple of arguable calls went against him in the second at-bat. Robertson retired just one of three hitters. As mediocre as Joba Chamberlain has looked, the Yankees need Hughes and Robertson to serve as the bridge to Mariano Rivera. There are serious questions whether either can get the job done.

The offense was simply overmatched by an ace pitching at the absolute top level of his ability. Lee might have had the first World Series shutout since Beckett in 2003 if not for another postseason miscue from the Utley-Jimmy Rollins double play combination in the ninth. He struck out 10 and walked none. The run was unearned, so he now has a 0.54 ERA in four postseason starts.

Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez combined to go 0-for-8 with five strikeouts against him.

Game 2 now seems to be pretty close to a must-win for the Yankees, who just might have to face Lee twice more. Pedro Martinez and A.J. Burnett are set to take the mound.

*Cliff Lee needs to work deep into the game in order to match CC Sabathia.

The Phillies will likely have to rely a great deal on their pen during Games 2 and 3, so it's important that Lee provide them with at least seven strong innings. The chances of Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park and Scott Eyre giving the Phillies quality work in the middle innings will decrease the more than the Yankees get to see them.

*The Yankees will work the count and try to get into middle relief.

The Bombers know they have a big advantage in the later innings, even if Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain aren't giving them quite what they hoped in setup roles yet. If they can knock Lee out after six, they'll get to the soft underbelly of this Phillies team.

*Jimmy Rollins has to start something for Phillies.

Rollins is hitting just .244/.279/.317 in the postseason, but he tends to come around once he reaches base. In 11 career at-bats against Sabathia, he's collected four hits, including a triple and two doubles.

Except for that provided by some brutal umpiring, it's so far been a postseason without a whole lot of drama. We've yet to see a decisive game in any of the six series to date. In fact, those series have lasted a total of 24 games, just four more than the possible minimum.

So, it's going to be up to the World Series to give us a nail-biter. If it happens, it'd be quite a change. Three of the last five World Series have been sweeps and the other two lasted just five games. There hasn't been a seven-game series since 2002.

Fortunately, we're getting what looks like the best possible matchup. FOX would have preferred Yankees-Dodgers, but they'll be glad they got the Yankees and they certainly have plenty of storylines. It's the defending champs versus the all-time champs. Former Indians starters CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee just might face off three times. Future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez, out of the league for most of the year, is set to start Game 2 against his old nemesis. The much-maligned Alex Rodriguez could have a postseason for the ages. For that matter, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth just might set some postseason records themselves.

Maybe it won't be a classic, but it hardly looks like a potential sweep, either.

World Series Probables

Game 1: Cliff Lee vs. CC Sabathia
Game 2: Pedro Martinez vs. A.J. Burnett

Game 3: Andy Pettitte vs. Cole Hamels
Game 4: CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee

And that's as far as we'll try to go with those. There's no extra day off in the World Series, so it'll be very difficult for either team to go with a straight three-man rotation. Both the Phillies and Yankees, though, appear to be lining up their aces to start Games 1, 4 and 7. Once Game 5 comes around, we'll probably see Joe Blanton or maybe J.A. Happ for the Phillies, as Martinez hardly seems like a strong candidate to start on short rest. The Yankees could go to Chad Gaudin, though that would seem to indicate that Pettitte would make just one start.

The battle of the aces is the one everyone will want to key in on. Sabathia, who has already pitched on short rest once, is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA. Lee is 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA, having lost his chance at a third victory because of a Jimmy Rollins error.

This won't be Sabathia's first postseason start against the Phillies. While toiling for the Brewers, a fatigued CC gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings to take a loss in the NLDS last year. Lee, of course, has plenty of history against the Yankees, having gone 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA against them while a member of the Indians. He was 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts this season.

Both are left-handed hitters going against lineups that rely on plenty of left-handed hitters. Maybe it will all go wrong, but the potential for a couple of outstanding pitcher's duels seems high.

The other matchups aren't all that much less interesting. Martinez appeared to be fifth in line for starts for the Phillies at the beginning of the postseason, but upon getting the call against the Dodgers, all he did was limit L.A. to two hits over seven scoreless innings. He's also plenty rested, having pitched just once all month. And don't underestimate the chip on his shoulder. Burnett was strong in his first two postseason starts before a dreadful first inning in Game 5 against the Angels. He rebounded well after that, but he hasn't faced World Series pressure yet. In the stuff department, he has Martinez beat hands down. Whether it translates remains to be seen.

Pettitte vs. Hamels pits one of the game's most successful October starters against the left-hander who put the Phillies on his shoulder and carried them to the title last year. In this case, though, it certainly seems to be advantage Pettitte. He's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA this month, while Hamels has managed to give up six homers and 11 runs in 14 2/3 innings. They'd never admit it, but the Phillies wouldn't have bumped him behind Martinez in the rotation had they possessed a whole lot of confidence in him. With the way things are shaping up, Hamels will probably make just the one start.

If it is Gaudin vs. Blanton in Game 5, it'd seem to favor Philadelphia. Blanton, though, is 0-3 with an 8.18 ERA in four career starts versus the Bombers. The Phillies might prefer to go with the left-handed Happ, but it would depend how he's used in relief. Both Blanton and Happ will be in the pen to start the series.

The offenses

The Yankees and Phillies finished first and second, respectively, in homers this season, and both led their leagues in runs scored. The Yankees have a clear edge, especially at the bottom of the lineup, but they will give that up on two occasions if Jose Molina continues to replace Jorge Posada in Burnett's starts. Also, they'll lose a lot when Hideki Matsui takes a seat in Philadelphia.

Both teams figure to go with pretty set lineups. It'd take a couple of more bad games from Nick Swisher before the Yankees would consider a change in right. The two starts Molina gets, assuming that they materialize, might be their only changes.

The Phillies will use Ben Francisco in left field and Raul Ibanez at DH in Game 1. Against the right-hander in Game 2, they'll probably put Ibanez back in the field and start Matt Stairs at DH. Outside of the DH, they'll use the same personnel every game.

Whether the Phillies can match the Yankees run for run may come down to Jimmy Rollins. While he recovered from a brutal first half this season, he's been lousy again in October, hitting .244 with an 8/0 K/BB ratio and no steals in 41 at-bats. There's no way that Charlie Manuel is going to remove him from the leadoff spot now, so he really needs to step it up.

Overrated angle

The Phillies' DH situation

Unlike many NL teams in recent memory, the Phillies come to play when adding a DH to their lineup. Francisco hit .278/.317/.526 in 97 at-bats after coming over in the Cliff Lee deal, and he's a big upgrade from Ibanez defensively in left field. Stairs hardly ever got to start for the Phillies this year and his average suffered as a result, but he did manage five homers and 23 walks in 103 at-bats. Also, he has a couple of homers in 11 career at-bats against Burnett. It's not a given that the Phillies will use him -- Francisco's defense is enough of an upgrade that keeping him in left field against the right-hander would be justifiable -- but it'd be a shame if Stairs didn't get at least one start.

Underrated angle

The AL experience of Philadelphia's starters

Lee, Martinez and Blanton are certainly no strangers to opposing loaded lineups, and they're not going to be surprised when suddenly faced with the prospect of dealing with a bunch of very patient, All-Star caliber hitters. The Rockies in 2007 and the Cardinals in 2004 just weren't ready for the Red Sox, and the Yankees can maul an erratic pitcher even faster than those Boston teams could. The Phillies, though, will rely on starters with a ton of AL experience. Only Hamels, who will probably start just one game, doesn't have any.

Prediction

It's up for debate, but I think this is the first time since at least 2004 and probably since 2001 that the World Series has matched the best teams in each league. The Phillies truly can win this series. The non-Lee starters can't risk pacing themselves, though. If Pedro and Hamels can give the team five good innings, manager Charlie Manuel shouldn't push his luck and ask for much more. To his credit, he's handled his pitching staff exquisitely to date. There's no shutdown reliever in the Phillies pen this year, but there are a bunch of capable pitchers to provide lots of different looks and keep the Yankees off balance. If Lee can match Sabathia, if Pedro and Hamels can keep the team in games and if Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park can keep it together in the sixth and seventh innings, then the Phillies have a real chance.

The Yankees, though, need less to go right. They know they own the ninth inning, when it comes down to Mariano Rivera vs. Brad Lidge. They have a slight advantage in both the rotation and in the starting lineup. It's not a landslide, but they are the better team, as one should expect given the $80 million payroll advantage. Home-field advantage won't hurt either. My guess is that we finally get our first suspenseful World Series in six or seven years, but I expect the Yankees to claim it in seven.

Thanks in large part to the flood of talent brought in though the Erik Bedard trade, things are certainly looking up for the Orioles. Matt Wieters is going to be a superstar behind the plate, the Nolan Reimold-Adam Jones-Nick Markakis outfield should be plenty productive and is under complete control through 2013 and Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman are two of the game's very best pitching prospects.

It isn't yet, though, the time to try to surround the impressive young core with quality veterans. The Orioles needs simply don't mesh with this year's free-agent market. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay wouldn't make nearly as much sense as Mark Teixeira did a year ago. Top talents such as John Lackey and Chone Figgins would have to be overpaid to come to Baltimore, and besides Aroldis Chapman, there isn't much in the way of younger free agents with upside.

The Orioles aren't one or two players away from toppling the Yankees and Red Sox, so biding their time will continue to be the right strategy. At the rate the team is developing talent, Baltimore could soon again become a preferred destination for free agents. With several top pitchers potentially available, the club might actually have a shot at Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb or John Beckett after next season.

In the meantime, the Orioles should look to go short term with a late-game reliever, a middle-of-the-rotation starter and a corner infielder. It'd be awfully nice if Adrian Beltre fell into their laps, but Carlos Delgado, Hank Blalock and Troy Glaus are interesting one-year options to help out at first or third. Try Jim Johnson as a starter and sign Kevin Gregg or J.J. Putz to battle Koji Uehara and the youngsters for the closer's role. Look into Justin Duchscherer and Todd Wellemeyer as cheap rotation options.

It's 2011 that the Orioles should be thinking about. Wieters will be established as one of the game's top-five catchers, and with any luck, they'll have come up with three effective starters from the group of Matusz, Tillman, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen, Johnson, David Hernandez, Jake Arrieta and Troy Patton. That's a team that might be just one or two veterans away from threatening the AL East's elite.

The Rays assured themselves of entering 2010 with a fourth outfielder by re-signing free agent Gabe Kapler to a one-year, $1.05 million contract on Tuesday, but it's still a mystery just who he'll be playing behind next year.

Kapler's role in 2009 was to start over Gabe Gross in right field against lefties. The platoon worked out exquisitely early on. Kapler had an 839 OPS in 113 at-bats prior to the All-Star break, while Gross came in at an OBP-heavy 802 as the starter against righties. Maybe that's not spectacular, but they also played quality defense and they combined to cost the thrifty Rays a total of $2.225 million for the year.

Unfortunately, Gross, in particular, collapsed after that. He hit just .160 with a 512 OPS after the break and lost most of his playing time to Ben Zobrist after Akinori Iwamura returned. Kapler also fell off to a 681 OPS. For the season, he hit an exceptional .276/.379/.552 in 145 at-bats against lefties and a dreadful .150/.190/.167 in 60 at-bats versus righties.

Gross is unlikely to return next year, so it's unclear what Kapler's role will be. The Rays could opt for only a minor change and stick with Carl Crawford in left and B.J. Upton in center, with Matt Joyce, the return from the Tigers for Edwin Jackson, taking over as the right fielder against right-handers. However, the Rays were clearly disappointed by Joyce's play this season and didn't even give him a September callup.

The Rays have other options. Crawford is a year away from free agency and would fetch a high price in trade. Upton's stock is well down, but he's also getting talked about as a trade possibility. He's more likely than Crawford to go. Zobrist appears to be penciled in at second base, but the Rays could throw a changeup and opt to keep Iwamura, forcing Zobrist to the outfield. Sean Rodriguez, a longtime Angels prospect acquired in the Scott Kazmir deal, could also compete for outfield time, and top prospect Desmond Jennings may be a factor by the middle of the season.

If the Rays don't have a left-handed-hitting outfielder for Kapler to platoon with, he'd likely be useless to the team. He's a liability when starting against righties, so he's not someone who would fare well if forced into the lineup on a regular basis by injuries. The 34-year-old is worth the $1.05 million committed to him, but he needs to be used correctly. The Rays should have waited to see if he was still going to be the right fit for the team.

After what was surely an exhaustive search, Paul Beeston, the Jays' interim president and CEO, was given permanent title to his offices on Tuesday.

Beeston conducted all of the interviews as he searched for his replacements, but he evidently never found anyone as qualified as himself. While former Jays GM Pat Gillick and Nats president Stan Kasten were a couple of the names bandied about as potential CEOs, it doesn't appear that either was interested.

So, Beeston, the Jays' first employee back in 1976, will reclaim his old job, which he left in 1997 to serve as MLB's chief operating officer.

The good news is that it means Alex Anthopoulos will stay on as GM. Anthopoulos was Beeston's choice for the job, but a new president might have preferred someone with more experience.

The Angels made the right calls a year ago in declining to ante up for Mark Teixeira and turning instead to Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu to round out their lineup. Factoring into the decision was that GM Tony Reagins knew Teixeira's $20 million salary would make it very difficult to keep the team together starting in 2010. The Angels have seven free agents this winter, and those players combined to make more than $50 million in 2009. For that reason, Reagins is going to be faced with as many difficult decisions as any GM in the game.

Let's run down the list (rankings taken from our Top 111 Free Agents):

Robb Quinlan (not rated) - Quinlan has been pretty worthless coming off the bench for three straight years now, finishing with OPSs of 652, 637 and 614. If the Angels want to continue carrying a right-handed reserve for first and third, then minor leaguer Matt Brown could prove to be an upgrade.

Kelvim Escobar (No. 104) - Escobar, who made $9.5 million this year, pitched a total of five innings over the last two years because of shoulder problems. If he's re-signed, it would be to a one-year deal with a minimal guarantee and plenty of incentives.

Darren Oliver (No. 77) - Oliver accepted arbitration as a free agent after last season and ended up taking a one-year, $3.665 million contract. Something similar could happen this winter. Oliver would probably draw a couple of two-year offers if he shopped himself around, but he's talked about just pitching one more season anyway and he'd likely prefer to do it in Anaheim.

Vladimir Guerrero (No. 17) - It's been assumed for months that Guerrero wasn't in the Angels' plans for 2010, but the excellent postseason will add to the sentiment for keeping him. He hit .378/.425/.541 with seven RBI in nine games against the Red Sox and Yankees. Guerrero would surely prefer to stay in the area, and he's a favorite of owner Arte Moreno. Odds are that he's a goner, but perhaps if the Angels can't get anything done with the next person on the list, they'll reach back out to him.

Bobby Abreu (No. 16) - Abreu expected two-year offers in the $30 million range after last season, only to eventually have to settle for $5 million over one year from the Angels. Now that's bounced back defensively and he can benefit from a free-agent market that's short on left-handed-hitting outfielders -- he and Johnny Damon are clearly the best -- he shouldn't have much difficulty landing a multiyear pact. The Angels reportedly offered him $16 million for two years earlier this month, only to have it turned down. A two-year, $20 million deal would be fair for both parties.

Chone Figgins (No. 5) - Another ugly postseason won't help Figgins, but it's probably not going to hurt too much, either. The 31-year-old was an exceptional player until October, hitting .298 and leading the AL with 101 walks. Versatility also works in his favor. Not only is he arguably the best third baseman on the market, but he's probably the best center fielder as well. Since that will increase his number of suitors, he could land a four-year deal worth $12 million per season. The Angels have Brandon Wood ready to take over at third base if they lose him.

John Lackey (No. 3) - There's no replacing the ace, though. The Angels still have Jared Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir under control, giving them a fine regular-season rotation in the event of Lackey's departure. But who from that group is going to start Game 1 against the Yankees or Red Sox? Lackey is the one free agent the Angels simply must keep, and there should be more than enough money to make it happen.

The Angels are expected to dabble in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes, but it'd make a lot more sense to keep Lackey and Abreu than it would to pay even more for Holliday and Randy Wolf. If the Angels retain those two and Oliver, they shouldn't have a lot of difficulty filling the other gaps. Wood is ready to take over at third, and Erick Aybar is an option to replace Figgins in the leadoff spot. The Angels will also look at potential leadoff-hitting left fielders, with the idea that they can give Juan Rivera more DH time.

In the end, there's really no way Reagins can play it badly enough for the Angels to enter 2010 as anything less than the AL West favorites. However, the division is improving as quickly as any in baseball. If the Angels don't get start getting younger, they might find themselves poorly set up for 2011 and beyond.

How is .270 with 14 homers and 63 RBI more valuable than 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA or 6-3 with 26 saves and a 1.84 ERA?

I don't even want to get into the more complicated statistics, because the voters clearly aren't. But Gordon Beckham has now won AL top rookie honors from The Sporting News and the Players Choice Awards.

Of course, both are voted on by players, so Beckham wasn't likely to win one and not the other.

I just don't see how he deserved to win either.

Beckham is going to be a very good regular for a long time, but he didn't truly set himself apart offensively or defensively this year. His counting stats are completely unremarkable, and an 808 OPS over the course of 103 games isn't what one expects to see from a serious Rookie of the Year contender.

Niemann was certainly more valuable with his 180 2/3 innings of above average pitching. Bailey was arguably the game's most valuable reliever. He finished fourth in baseball in relief innings pitched, and he was fourth in ERA and first in WHIP amongst relievers with 60 innings pitched.

I'd also put Elvis Andrus above Beckham with his .267/.329/.373 line in 480 at-bats and his impressive defense at shortstop, but that's a closer call. Bailey is the rookie most deserving of all of this hardware. He's not going to have the same kind of career of Beckham, but he was the most effective player this year.

The Yankees didn't overpower them. Just once in the series did the Bombers really come out to play and turn a game into a rout. No, the Yankees were the better team going in and should have won this series anyway, but the Angels served it up on a platter.

Most notable were the eight errors, all of them legitimate and several of them costly. Even uglier were the mistakes on the basepaths, none more hideous than Vladimir Guerrero getting doubled on a routine fly to shallow right on Sunday. The hitters got less and less patient as the series went on. Only the pitching remained solid, but it was given so little to work with.

And while the players lost the series, Mike Scioscia's star definitely lost some luster. Given the chance, he practically always went against the percentages and he had several decisions come back to bite him. And while Scioscia can't control what happens on the field, the fact is that the team that he had a huge hand in assembling went out and choked. The Angels play the kind of baseball that old vets and writers lap up, but the fundamentals went right out the window against the Yankees.

Oddly enough, it turned out that the player the Angels are all ready to phase out was the star of the series. Guerrero went 10-for-27 with a homer and five RBI against the Yankees. He previously delivered the series-clinching hit against the Red Sox, and he ended up collecting at least one hit in all nine of the Angels' postseason games. Unfortunately, Sunday's baserunning blunder might be remembered at least as much as anything else he did against the Yankees.

Many other Angels wilted. The team totaled just three homers in the series, and the running game was pretty much a non-factor, even if Erick Aybar did go 3-for-3 stealing bases (the rest of the team was 1-for-2). Scott Kazmir struggled mightily in his start and threw away the Angels' chances of a comeback win in Game 6 with a careless toss in his relief appearance. Chone Figgins was the biggest goat on offense, but the Angels should have been prepared for that going in.

Because Guerrero and Alex Rodriguez shined in the ALCS, Figgins perhaps now stands alone when it comes to active postseason futility. He did score one of the team's runs Sunday after a flare to left off Mariano Rivera that barely eluded Derek Jeter's glove. That's about as close to hitting with authority as he came all month. He hit .130 against the Yankees, and he's at .172/.223/.246 in 122 career postseason at-bats. Scioscia refusal to move him down after so many awful plate appearances hurt the team.

But if standing by Figgins was Scioscia's worst sin, he would have had a fine series. Scioscia was handed what was essentially a lifetime contract from the Angels prior to this year, and he's certainly not going to lose his job over a poor series. However, the regular-season success will only go so far.

Scioscia loves ignoring the numbers and playing favorites, and because his clubs keep winning, he gets the benefit of the doubt. It's something that could begin to change if the October results don't turn around. Scioscia's teams have averaged 95 wins the last six years, yet are 2-5 in postseason series. The Angels should have more than the steroid-fueled 2002 championship to show for all of their recent success.

35-year-old Jed Hoyer, an assistant GM for the Red Sox, will be named the replacement for Kevin Towers in San Diego, according to the Boston Globe and several other sources.

The former Wesleyan University closer earned the gig on his third try, having previously interviewed for openings in Pittsburgh and D.C. He had been with the Red Sox since 2002, and he was briefly one of the people in charge of personnel decisions when Theo Epstein left the team after the 2005 season.

This may well be a better situation for him than the previous potential gigs, though he'll have to deal with modest payrolls. The Padres do have an advantage in assembling their roster in that their ballpark is so unique. Sure, it will be difficult to lure top hitters to Petco Park, but the Padres aren't going to be bidding for them very often anyway. San Diego will remain a terrific destination for starters and relievers looking to revive their careers, so the Padres should be focusing more on offense in the draft.

Some will wonder why the Padres didn't go for someone with more of a scouting background, given that the acquisition of young talent through the draft and Latin America was far and away former GM Kevin Towers' biggest weakness. However, new CEO Jeff Moorad made it clear he was looking for more of an analyst than a scout in the GM role. Hoyer dealt mostly with major league player acquisitions in Boston, so he'll be looking elsewhere for help in the scouting department.

Oddly enough, the Padres and Red Sox may end up trading front office personnel here. The Red Sox are known to have offered Towers a position in the organization, and if he accepts, it seems likely that he'd take on some of Hoyer's responsibilities.

It's long been assumed that he'd get the Dodgers' job once Joe Torre retired, but Don Mattingly is in demand and apparently could jump ship now. He's a leading candidate to take over for Eric Wedge in Cleveland and Jim Riggleman in Washington.

I just want to know why.

Mattingly's reputation as a fine leader goes back to his playing days. There's no doubt his teammates had great respect for him, and there was never any reason to question his status as one of the game's gentleman.

Of course, that leadership never really translated on the field. Mattingly's Yankees teams made the playoffs once in 14 seasons. That was in 1995, his final year of the bigs. Just a shell of his former self, he hit .288/.341/.413 with a mere 49 RBI in 128 games. He did end up turning in a big ALDS, going 10-for-24 with a homer and six RBI. However, the Yankees lost to the Mariners in a thrilling five-game series anyway. It was immediately after Mattingly retired that the Yankees went on their historic run.

Mattingly essentially took eight years off after his playing career, though he did serve as a spring training instructor with the Yankees. After the 2003 season, he took over as the Bombers' hitting coach, serving in that role for three years. The Yankees then made him their bench coach, apparently with the idea of grooming him to replace Torre. However, after Torre was fired following the 2007 season, the Yankees picked Joe Girardi as their new manager.

Mattingly followed Torre to Los Angeles, but it was a bumpy ride at first. He was hired as the Dodgers' hitting coach, but he abruptly stepped down in Jan. 2008, citing family issues, and took a lesser role. After six months, his family issues apparently cleared up, he made his interest known and took back to hitting coach job, replacing Mike Easler.

The family issues, though, have drawn more headlines than his on-field work of late. After Mattingly initially stepped down as hitting coach, his wife was arrested and charged with public intoxication and disorderly conduct for refusing to leave Don's property. Mattingly later got a protective order. In July of this year, his son Taylor was arrested for allegedly shoving his mother and spitting in her face. He was charged with battery by bodily waste and criminal mischief.

There's not any evidence out there that Mattingly isn't the man every Yankee fan who grew up in the 80s admired. Still, it's hardly unfair to question his ability to manage a family. As for whether he can manage ballplayers, we simply have no idea, since Mattingly had no interest in working in the minors following his playing career. That remains the biggest strike against him. Mattingly has never had to handle a pitching staff, and he hasn't exactly had the best role model in that area in Torre. His track record as a hitting coach is largely positive, but it's quite possible that's the best role for him.

The ALCS victory was theirs for the taking even after an awful first inning, but the Yankees couldn't reach out and grab it. Instead, the series will head back to New York for a Game 6 on Saturday. The end result came in spite of the efforts of one Mike Scioscia, the AL's likely Manager of the Year for 2009.

Let's run down the mistakes:

- He sat down his hottest hitter, Howie Kendrick, to go to Maicer Izturis, just as he had done during the regular season. Izturis did make one notable defensive play, snaring a grounder that had deflected off Kendry Morales' glove, but he went 0-for-4 while batting sixth in the lineup. Kendrick is 4-for-11 with a homer and a triple in the series.

- In the seventh, he made the bizarre choice to let John Lackey face Johnny Damon with the bases loaded, only to pull him in favor of Darren Oliver once Damon was retired. Removing Lackey prior to Damon's at-bat would have been defensible. Letting Lackey face Teixeira after retiring Damon would have been defensible. Instead, Scioscia went the one route that made no sense at all. It's not like he even had history on his side, as Teixeira went 2-for-3 with a walk lifetime against Oliver. Teixeira delivered a three-run double, and Oliver never got an out in what ended up being a six-run inning.

- Scioscia twice played small-ball in bad situations. In the seventh, he had Chone Figgins put down a sacrifice with two on and none out, even though Figgins has grounded into a double play once every 91 plate appearances in his career. The Angels went on to score three times in the inning, and perhaps they would have broken the game open if not for giving up an out. In the eighth, the red-hot Jeff Mathis was asked to bunt against Joba Chamberlain with a man on second and two outs. He failed to get it down in two attempts and ended up striking out.

- Scioscia actually made a great call in the eighth, turning to probably Game 7 starter Jered Weaver in reliever. Weaver was dominant in retiring Melky Cabrera, Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter on two strikeouts and a comebacker. Scioscia, though, couldn't resist going to closer Brian Fuentes in the ninth. In the end, it worked out. Fuentes loaded the bases on two walks -- one intentional -- and a HBP, but he got out of it by retiring the ice-cold Nick Swisher to end the game.

So, now we'll see a Game 6. Joe Saunders vs. Andy Pettitte. It means both teams will resume using their best lineups, with Jorge Posada catching for New York and Kendrick playing second for the Angels. The only thing in doubt is whether Mathis or Mike Napoli will catch. Napoli caught Saunders in Game 2, but Mathis is too hot to be benched now.

Come back at 8 pm EDT tonight for a live chat during Game 5 of the ALCS.

So much for the promising start to Arizona's offseason. They've learned that they're saving about $5 million because Mark Reynolds just missed qualifying for arbitration and it looks like they'll hold on to assistants Jerry DiPoto and Peter Woodfork with the Padres set to name Boston's Jed Hoyer as their new GM. However, they received a big blow Thursday with the news that top prospect Jarrod Parker would undergo Tommy John surgery.

The procedure doesn't come as a complete surprise, as there had been rumors that it would be necessary ever since the right-hander was shut down in early August. The Diamondbacks said two weeks ago that he had been making progress in his throwing program, but obviously, he had experienced a setback since.

Parker, 20, was the ninth overall pick in the 2007 draft. Before being shut down this year, he went 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA and a 95/38 K/BB ratio in 97 1/3 innings, most of them coming in Double-A. With a big fastball and a high-80s slider, the Diamondbacks view him as a potential ace. Ideally, this will be a mere one-year setback for him. Still, if he had stayed healthy, he was a definite threat to come up next June and perhaps contend for Rookie of the Year honors.

In truth, the ALCS should be over already. While there's been just the one blowout, the Yankees have outshined the Halos in every aspect of the game through four long nights of baseball.

*The Bombers are hitting .278/.375/.481 with eight homers, while the Angels have struggled to a .201/.273/.329 line.

*The Yankees' pitching staff has an exceptional 1.032 WHIP, while the Angels are at 1.661.

*With Mark Teixeira hauling in wide throws left and right, the Yankees have committed just three errors to the Angels' six.

Maybe the baserunning goes to the Angels, if only by default. Both teams have been abysmal, but at least the Angels have been caught stealing just once, while the Yankees have been gunned down three times in five attempts.

The Angels didn't even seem to make a real effort in Tuesday's Game 4. Their at-bats are getting worse by the day.

Against CC Sabathia in Game 1, the Angels saw 3.94 pitches per plate appearance. Facing A.J. Burnett and a cast of relievers in Game 2, it was 3.97. In the Game 3 victory, though, it dropped to 3.70. In the Game 4 humiliation, they were all of the way down to 3.45.

For the Angels to win the series now, they'd need to beat A.J. Burnett, Andy Petttite and Sabathia in succession. They have a realistic chance of winning Game 5 with John Lackey on the mound, but it's doubtful that Sabathia will work again until Game 1 of the World Series. The Yankee bullpen is fully rested after the completely unnecessary off day on Wednesday, and all of the extra time off has given Joe Girardi's crew a big advantage at the end of games, even if Girardi doesn't know how to optimize it. At this point, it's just a matter of whether the Yankees will wrap it up in five or six.

The rotation provided one quality start in five games. The bullpen allowed 14 runs in 21 innings.

The Dodgers really never gave their offense a shot. It seemed like Joe Torre pushed all of the right buttons in the sweep of the Cardinals. This time, he mostly sat and watched. His one clear error was leaving Clayton Kershaw in too long in Game 1. Game 2 was the lone victory, and nothing could have made Game 3 winnable with Cliff Lee on the mound. In Game 4, he made the right calls and his best reliever got beat.

Game 5 featured seven homers, but most of the excitement was drained by the constant pitching changes, leading to very long innings. The Dodgers used three pitchers in the fourth, and the Phillies used three in the fifth. In the end, talent won out. Vicente Padilla was supposed to get hit hard by the Phillies' left-handers in the series, but it was actually the righties that pounded him Wednesday night. Shane Victorino's stunning homer off Kershaw in the sixth qualified as the finishing blow. The Dodgers did put together a big threat in the eighth, but James Loney, Russell Martin and Casey Blake all came up empty with the bases loaded. Philadelphia's offense scored in six of eight innings and won 10-4.

While the Phillies can start preparing to play the Yanke... the ALCS winner, the Dodgers head home with a bunch of questions. Padilla, Randy Wolf and Jon Garland are all free agents, leaving the team with only Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley guaranteed rotation spots. If GM Ned Colletti decides a makeover is necessary to reach the next level, then Billingsley, Martin and Loney are possibilities to be dealt. Juan Pierre could also go. There'd be a whole lot more flexibility if Manny Ramirez chooses to depart, but odds are that he'll exercise his $20 million option and stick around. With the sudden uncertainty in the ownership situation and so many of the team's youngsters due healthy raises in arbitration, there might not be as much room for improvement as fans would like.

Picking a slightly more central location than tiny Andorra, Aroldis Chapman, who was declared a free agent last month, is headed to New York to begin meeting with suitors.

Chapman's agent told ESPN's Jorge Arangure Jr. that the 21-year-old left-hander will arrive on Wednesday and is set to visit several cities. Boston is very likely to be included, and a trip to the West Coast to gauge the interest of the Dodgers and Angels figures to follow.

The hard-throwing Chapman is expected to get one of the winter's largest contracts, even though he's probably not ready to succeed as a major league starter just yet. He placed eighth on our list of the winter's top 111 free agents. A deal in the $50 million range is a good guess, and the Yankees would seem to have the best chance of anyone of landing him.

In what might be his last official act as an ESPN employee, Steve Phillips released the following statement following today's New York Post story that claimed he slept with a 22-year-old ESPN production assistant:

"I am deeply sorry that I have put my family and colleagues through this. It is a personal matter that I will not comment on further. I have, however, asked for a leave of absence to address this with my family and to avoid any unnecessary distractions through the balance of the baseball playoffs."

It seems awfully unlikely that ESPN will bring Phillips back next year, and it's hard to imagine any other outlet will be quick to hire a talking head whose lack of baseball acumen might actually be one of his lesser flaws.

At least some brought their A games to the park on Tuesday. The Halos certainly didn't live up to their logos, and the boys in blue continued to build the case for why instant replay needs to be greatly expanded in baseball.

Since it turned into a rout, CC Sabathia will be the story, and deservedly so. On three days' rest, the big left-hander silenced anyone still questioning his postseason record with eight innings of one-run ball. He improved to 3-0 and lowered his ERA to 1.19.

Had the game remained close, then the umpires would have faced their greatest scrutiny yet. Tim McClelland, widely revered as the game's best, horribly botched two plays at third, making it obvious in the process that he wasn't even paying attention to the game in front of him.

In the fourth, second-base umpire Dale Scott missed a clear pickoff at second base. That was the play that led to McClelland's first error. Nick Swisher should have been called out after straying from the bag, but Scott ruled him safe following the pickoff throw. He went on to advance to third and seemingly score on a sac fly, but McClelland, who never looked to see where Swisher was, said Swisher left too early and called him out, though replay showed he didn't. It wasn't even particularly close.

At least that was righting a wrong. McClelland's call in the fifth suggested that his head was a long way from Anaheim. Swisher hit a comebacker to Darren Oliver with Jorge Posada on third and Robinson Cano on second. Oliver threw home, and catcher Mike Napoli snatched the ball and ran Posada back to third. Cano, meanwhile, had run almost all of the way to third, only to stop a foot in front of the bag. Posada returned to third, but overran the base, allowing Napoli to tag both players while neither was on the bag. Bizarrely, McClelland only gave the Angels the one out. Fortunately, the Angels did get out of the inning without further damage.

So, the score will overshadow the bad umpiring and some poor managing from Mike Scioscia, who decided against pulling an ineffective Scott Kazmir to start the fifth and never went to Ervin Santana until it was 5-1. It didn't matter, since the Angels couldn't get anything going against Sabathia and they again failed to stop Alex Rodriguez, who went 3-for-4 with a two-run homer and three-run scored.

Now comes the unnecessary day off before a must-win Game 5 for the Angels. A.J. Burnett and John Lackey will pitch. With Lackey comes his personal catcher, Jeff Mathis, and that the Angels are facing a right-hander means that Maicer Izturis is due to start at second over Howie Kendrick. However, Scioscia better have some sort of new plan in store, because a weaker lineup is hardly what the Angels need right now.
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Red Sox acquire first baseman Prince Fielder from the Brewers for outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and RHP Michael Bowden.

Why it works for Boston: Since David Ortiz may be more of a No. 6 hitter going forward, the Red Sox could use a left-handed power presence in the third or fourth spot in the order. Unlike anyone available in free agency this winter, Fielder provides that in spades. He finished third in the majors in OPS, second in homers, tied for first in RBI and fourth in walks this season. Boston can also easily handle his $10.5 million salary, and the team may prefer the short-term commitment to him rather than going to five years to re-sign Jason Bay or six or seven to bring in Matt Holliday.

Why it works for Milwaukee: The Brewers would want a young ace as the primary return for Fielder, but Ellsbury, the major league leader in steals this season, would fit nicely. As is, the Brewers would have to spend about $20 million to bring back Fielder and free agent Mike Cameron next year. They could plug Mat Gamel and Ellsbury into those holes, and since both are making the minimum, use the savings to bring in a pair of quality veteran starters this winter. Plus, they'd get a legitimate rotation option in Bowden, who had a 3.13 ERA in 24 starts as a 22-year-old in Triple-A this year. He projects as more of a No. 4 starter in the AL, but he may be a legit No. 3 in the NL.

Why it won't happen: Milwaukee would probably hold out for Clay Buchholz in a Fielder deal, and the Red Sox won't want to trade their young starter after the way he came on in the second half of the year. The Brewers have the ability to hold on to Fielder at his relatively modest salary for one more year and would still be able to get plenty for him in trade next winter, when he'll have one year to go before free agency. In the meantime, they can shop J.J. Hardy and see if he'll being a decent starter.

As we noted back in July, it was sure to go right down to the wire. As it turned out, Mark Reynolds' two years and 138 days of service time wasn't quite enough to make him a "super-two" arbitration eligible player. This year's cutoff was two years, 141 days.

Under the rules of MLB, players with between three and six years of service time, as well as the top one-sixth of players with between two and three years, qualify for arbitration after every season. Those top one-sixth are known as "super-two" players, and that one rule is why we've seen teams so cautious about promoting prospects in April and early May during recent years.

Reynolds was called up from the majors on May 16, 2007, never to be sent down. Had the Diamondbacks chosen to promote him on May 13 instead, he'd likely be in line to earn at least $5 million next year. As is, Arizona could pay him as little as $500,000 or maybe up to $800,000 or so if the team is feeling generous.

Tim Lincecum, on the other hand, was called up on May 6, 2007, never to be sent down. Those extra seven days spent on the roster of a team that ended up finishing in last place will cost the Giants dearly. Lincecum figures to ask for something in the neighborhood of the $10 million Ryan Howard requested and received as a super-two player after 2007. Not only are the Giants going to spend $9 million more than they needed to on Lincecum next year, but that huge increase will continue to be reflected in future arbitration years and keep costing them down the road.

So, yeah, the Giants made a huge mistake. The Diamondbacks, though, weren't nearly as sure what they had in Reynolds when a Chad Tracy injury led to his callup. They caught a big break in that they won't have to pay for Reynolds' ample production for another year. The $5 million that they might have spent on him can now go towards improving the rotation or the bullpen or for an upgrade at second base.

Check back at 8 pm EDT tonight, as I'll be hosting a live blog/chat during Game 4 of the ALCS.

Jonathan Broxton was untouchable in Los Angeles this season, allowing just 14 hits and no homers in 45 innings. The .095 average against and 73/9 K/BB ratio allowed him to convert 18 of 19 save chances.

Elsewhere, it was a different story. Broxton was still throwing 98 mph, but he allowed 30 hits and 20 walks in 31 innings in road games. He amassed a 5.81 ERA and blew five saves.

The road woes bit him again in a big way Monday, as he walked Matt Stairs, hit Carlos Ruiz and then allowed a game-winning two-run double to Jimmy Rollins in the ninth inning, giving the Phillies a 5-4 win in Game 4 of the NLCS and a commanding 3-1 series lead.

It looked like the Dodgers had a great chance to tie the series up when George Sherrill struck out Ryan Howard with two on in the eighth. Broxton came in then and retired Jayson Werth to end the frame and maintain the team's one-run lead.

Broxton, though, couldn't keep it going after a quick groundout from Raul Ibanez to start the ninth. Rest wasn't an issue, as Broxton hadn't pitched in three days. He just started missing with his fastball. Stairs worked his walk on only four pitches. Ruiz became just the second batter hit by the right-hander all season. Versus Rollins, he left a fastball right over the heart of the plate. Broxton's mistakes aren't punished all that often because of his velocity and movement, but Rollins got all of this one and it was obvious before the ball even landed that Ruiz would score from first.

Overlooked from the game will be the fine work from Philly's pen, as Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre and Brad Lidge combined to pitch three scoreless innings. Lidge came on after Rafael Furcal singled with one out in the top of the ninth and struck out Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in succession. It won't go down as a save or even a hold, but those may have been the biggest outs he'll get all month.

Too much stupidity on the basepaths prevented it from being a great game, but Monday's ALCS Game 3 was another exciting contest, one that will keep the second guessers going all night long following the Angels' 5-4 win in 11 innings.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi will catch all of the flak after his team lost for the first time in six postseason games. The decision to pull David Robertson after he faced just two batters, retiring both, will be the one under the microscope.

However, the truly awful decision was pulling Johnny Damon with the bases loaded and one out in the bottom of the 10th. Girardi thought a better arm might make a difference, so he inserted Jerry Hairston Jr., even though Mariano Rivera allows relatively few flyballs to left field.

The move would have been more defensible, though still undesirable, had Hairston come in off the bench. However, Hairston had already been inserted into the game as a designated hitter when he batted for Brett Gardner in the top of the ninth. The move meant the Yankees would lose their DH with the spot due up third in the top of the 11th.

Of course Rivera, being Rivera, pitched out of the jam, without any help from Hairston. But the switch meant that Rivera would have to either hit in the 11th or be removed from the game. Girardi opted to pull him and use Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli fanned, and Robertson came in to pitch the bottom of the 11th.

After Robertson got two outs by throwing 11 pitches, there was another shocking move. Out came Robertson and in came fellow right-hander Alfredo Aceves. The switch likely had something to do with Robertson throwing 33 pitches on Saturday, but if it made sense to use him to get two outs to start an inning, it certainly made sense to keep him in to face another right-hander. Besides, it wasn't a real 33-pitch outing for Robertson on Saturday. Intentional walks accounted for one-quarter of those pitches.

The moves backfired in spectacular fashion. Howie Kendrick singled off Aceves and Jeff Mathis followed up with a game-winning double over the head of Hairston in left. It was a ball that likely would have eluded Damon as well, but the natural outfielder would have made a better run at it.

The hit was redemption for Angels manager Mike Scioscia, who had his own non-move that seemed to backfire in the 10th. After Mathis led off that inning with a double, Scioscia could have had Reggie Willits run in his place. Had he done so, there's a good chance the Angels would have ended the game in the frame, as Willits shouldn't have had any problem scoring from third on a Chone Figgins grounder to first that forced Mark Teixiera into a dive. Mathis opted to hold on the groundout and was stranded at first. It was an uncharacteristic decision from the typically aggressive Scioscia, but one that worked out just fine when Mathis won the game in the 11th.

While already saying all of the right things, the Mariners are undoubtedly thrilled to have Kenji Johjima's $8 million salary in each of the next two seasons off the books. They're even reportedly getting out from under the disastrous contract without having to pay a buyout. By playing it as strictly Johjima's decision, they're going to be in the clear with baseball. One wonders if the Players Association will let it go so easily.

After all, the MLBPA is more interested in what's best for the union as a whole than what an individual player may desire. That was made clear after the 2003 season, when the union would not allow Alex Rodriguez to restructure his deal as he desired in order to facilitate a trade to the Red Sox.

In this case, Johjima, the game's third highest-paid catcher behind Jorge Posada and Joe Mauer, is giving up $16 million without receiving a penny in return. He'll return to Japan and command a fine salary there, but it won't rival what he was going to make as a Mariner.

Of course, Johjima will no longer be a part of the MLBPA then. And the $16 million he was due to make figures to be divvied up and given to other members of the MLBPA. The demand for this year's crop of catchers just got a little greater, and guys like Bengie Molina, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Varitek could benefit as a result.

So will the Players Association step in? Probably not. Should the union? If there's some evidence that Johjima was told he'd return to the Mariners as a backup and was pressured into opting out, it definitely should. But there won't be any evidence unless Johjima wants a fight, and odds are that he'll be perfectly content returning home as one of Japan's highest-paid players. It'll be a big win for the Mariners, and a nice treat for Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik, who finds himself completely off the hook for one of the team's biggest mistakes from Bill Bavasi's tenure.

Baseball was never meant to be a game of contact.

Sure, we all know how Ty Cobb went into second base spikes high, but we wouldn't tolerate those attempts to injure players today. So why do we allow the forearm shiver or the barrel roll?

Those ridiculous slides into second base are the reason we have the neighborhood play, a big topic of controversy since Erick Aybar wasn't given credit for straddling the bag on what would have been a double play Saturday night. It was obvious the umpire got the call right in saying Aybar never touched the base. The problem is that Aybar would have gotten that out call 95 percent of the time. Inconsistency is the major issue, of course, and Jerry Layne picked a big moment to start enforcing the rules.

So, will we see any changes in the future because of Saturday's events? It's safe to assume the majority of major league umps saw that call last night and might be more prone to making it in the future. It'll certainly take several more instances of seeing it happen for infielders to start changing the way they position themselves at the bag. Odds are that it will be mostly business as usual, and that's too bad, because MLB could use a change.

The neighborhood play exists because it's dangerous standing on top of a base when a runner is set to do everything possible to prevent a relay throw. Far too dangerous. Middle infielders need protection, especially second basemen, who can't see the runner coming from first. That double play turn is, in my opinion, the biggest reason why second basemen tend to have short careers.

So, it's either keep the neighborhood play or rein in the baserunners. I prefer the latter option. Baseball was not a sport designed for collisions. Accidents will happen, but MLB can further discourage contact if it wishes. First, enforce the rule that says runners are called out if they don't slide towards the bag. Most runners these days won't even reach out towards the bag to even give the impression that they're trying to touch second base when their legs are five feet off to the right. Call it.

Furthermore, the intentional overslide of the bag, an even more dangerous play, has to stop. Melky Cabrera performed just a modest overslide on Aybar, yet the shortstop still ended up taking a forearm to the thigh and a helmet to the groin. We see far worse every day, and there's just no reason for it.

If a player intentionally overslides the bag, he should be called out. If he pulls off the Orlando Cabrera "slide into the bag, pop up and try to forearm the shortstop in the face" maneuver, he should be ejected.

Force the shortstop and second baseman to touch the bag, but make it safe for them to do so. It should be easy enough to pull off.

Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino homered and Ryan Howard extended his streak of postseason games with an RBI to a record seven, but Sunday night was all about Cliff Lee. The left-hander pitched eight shutout innings and struck out 10 in the Phillies' 11-0 victory.

This one was over quickly, as the Phillies scored four times on Howard's triple and Werth's homer in the first and added two more in the second. The Dodgers never collected an extra-base hit in the contest. They never had multiple runners on base at the same time. In short, it was a dominant performance for Lee, who even singled and scored on Victorino's homer in the eighth.

Lee improved to 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA in three postseason starts. He'd likely be 3-0 if not for Dexter Fowler's leap in the eighth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS. He appeared all set to go for the shutout tonight, but after he ran the bases in the eighth and the Phillies added three more runs, the team took the prudent course and lifted him from the rout.

It's been a spectacular run for the left-hander, who wasn't good enough to make the Indians' postseason roster two years ago. Even though he was healthy enough to pitch, the Indians opted to pick Aaron Laffey over him in 2007 after he went 4-8 with a 6.29 ERA in 16 starts and four relief appearances that season.

Now Lee stands as the ace of the postseason to date, and the Dodgers won't be very optimistic if they head back to L.A. down 3-2 knowing they'll be facing him and Pedro Martinez again. The Phillies, on the other hand, have a chance to take the series without being forced to turn back to Lee. They'll throw Joe Blanton in Monday's Game 4. The Dodgers will turn to former Phillie Randy Wolf, their Game 1 starter in the NLDS.

If listening to Chip Caray and Joe Buck just isn't enough for you, we'll be blog-chatting throughout the LCS.

I'll be your host for the Game 1s in primetime tonight and on Friday. Also, D.J. Short will take Sunday night's NLCS Game 3.

Braves acquire OF Carlos Lee from the Astros for RHP Derek Lowe and OF Brandon Jones.

Why it works for Atlanta: the Braves would love to bring Tim Hudson back, yet they already have five starters in Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Kenshin Kawakami. One of the vets needs to go, and the Braves could surely use some right-handed power in return. Enter Lee, who has three years and $55.5 million left on his contract. He's not an ideal choice, given that the Braves could have an inexpensive and productive Nate McLouth-Jordan Schafer-Jason Heyward outfield in 2011. However, he'd look awfully nice in the middle of the order next year and the Braves probably aren't going to be able to move Lowe without taking another large contract in return.

Why it works for Houston: the Astros finished 13th in the NL in ERA and 14th in runs scored this season, so they need help any way they can get it. Lee's poor defense in left field really cuts into his value, and there's a good case to be made for Lowe, as a consistent 200-inning-per-year guy, as the better property even before salary gets factored in. Lowe, like Lee, is signed through 2012, but the Astros would save $3.5 million per year by making the deal. It's money that could be used to shore up the infield defense. That's something they need to do anyway, but it'd be a must with a sinkerballer like Lowe in the rotation. They'd also get a possible fourth outfielder in Jones, who hit .281/.360/.419 in Triple-A this season.

Why it won't happen: Lee has a no-trade clause through the end of next year, and he owns a ranch outside of Houston. He might want to stick around even if he realizes that the Braves are in a much better position to contend next year. The Astros have already foolishly committed $3 million to Brian Moehler, a pitcher who wouldn't have much business remaining in the rotation with Lowe around. The Braves are concerned about their defense, which is one reason they didn't pursue Adam Dunn when he was served to them on a platter last winter. They'll likely focus on finding short-term upgrades for the offense.

Anyone else thinking about Rick Ankiel right now wouldn't be off base.

Manager Joe Torre announced Wednesday that Clayton Kershaw would start Thursday's Game 1 against the Phillies. He was picked over Randy Wolf, who started Game 1 against the Cardinals last week. Kershaw followed in Game 2 of that series and allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision.

Kershaw is getting the nod even though he's 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA versus the Phillies in his career. He was 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA this season.

At 21 years, six months, Kershaw will the youngest Game 1 starter since Ankiel opened the 2000 NLDS at 20 years, three months. Ankiel famously cruised through two innings, only to lost control in the third and never truly regain it. He walked 11 and threw nine wild pitches in four innings between the NLDS and NLCS.

After convincing sweeps in Divisional Series play, the Angels and Yankees will meet in the ALCS. It'll be the third postseason series in eight years for the teams. They never played in the first 31 years of the Angels' existence, but they met in the ALDS in 2002 and 2005, with the Angels winning both series. In 2002, it was a high-scoring series in which the losing team plated at least five runs in all four games. The Angels lost Game 1, then rallied to win three straight, with Troy Glaus hitting three homers in the process.

The 2005 ALDS was remarkably close, with four of the five games being decided by one or two runs. Bengie Molina and Garret Anderson starred in that one, with the former hitting three homers and the latter driving in seven runs.

This is set to be the first seven-game series for the two teams, and MLB has seemingly given the Yankees a nice advantage by spreading the series over 10 days, rather than the traditional nine. That means the teams can go with three starters throughout, with just one pitcher ever starting on short rest.

2009 ALCS Probables

Game 1: John Lackey vs. CC Sabathia
Game 2: Joe Saunders vs. A.J. Burnett

Game 3: Andy Pettitte vs. Jered Weaver
Game 4: CC Sabathia vs. Scott Kazmir

Game 5: A.J. Burnett vs. John Lackey

Game 6: Joe Saunders vs. Andy Pettitte
Game 7: Jered Weaver vs. CC Sabathia

Of course, that's all tentative. But with ridiculously unnecessary extra day off, a pitcher can starts Games 2 and 5, Games 3 and 6 and Games 4 and 7 on normal rest. Sabathia will be going on short rest in Game 4, but he does have experience doing so.

The Angels probably wouldn't receive the same advantage by bring Lackey back on short rest, so they'll go with four starters. Unlike the Yankees, they've officially announced their starters through Game 4 as of this writing. It's entirely possible that they'll make a change and go with Kazmir in Game 7 if he outpitches Weaver. The Angels pushed Weaver back from Game 2 to Game 3 largely because of his excellent record at home. Game 7, though, will be back in Yankee Stadium and Kazmir would be able to start that one on normal rest.

Even with the heavy dose of CC, the rotation edge likely goes to the Angels. All of that Sabathia may not go as far as the Yankees are hoping anyway. The big left-hander lost both of his starts against the Angels this year, amassing a 6.08 ERA in the process. He's 5-7 with a 4.72 ERA lifetime against them. Pettitte went 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in three starts this year. Only Burnett was solid, going 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA.

Of course, the Angels starters don't have very good ERAs against the Yankees either. The exception is Kazmir, who went 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA versus the Bombers this season. He's 6-5 with a 2.67 ERA lifetime. It's one more good reason to think he'll be the Game 7 starter if it gets that far.

The offenses

It's a matchup of the AL's top two offenses. The Yankees led the majors in runs, homers, OBP and slugging, while the Angels came in second in runs and first in average.

New Yankee Stadium did play a role in the power numbers, but not as large was one might expect. The Yankees still outhomered the Angels 108-83 in road games and outslugged them .466-.434. The two teams hit for the same .283 average on the road.

The Angels had to be as excited to see Vladimir Guerrero come up big in the ALDS as the Yankees were with Alex Rodriguez. Still, Chone Figgins' extreme lack of production is a concern. He went 0-for-12 with six strikeouts against the Red Sox, leaving him at .182/.214/.273 in 99 at-bats over nine career postseason series.

Howie Kendrick will be another big factor in the series. He's hit .427 with an 11/12 K/BB ratio in 108 career at-bats against the Yankees. As the starting second baseman against left-handers, he's due to play in five of the seven games. However, he's been flat-out brutal in the postseason, all against the Red Sox. In three series, he's gone 5-for-32 with no extra-base hits and a 10/0 K/BB ratio. That's a 308 OPS. If he gets off to a poor start, he'll probably find himself on the bench in favor of Maicer Izturis.

The Yankees weren't exactly an offensive juggernaut versus the Twins. In fact, they were outhit 29-23 in the series, with the difference being that they outhomered the Twins 6-0 while scoring 15 runs between the three games. The important thing was that A-Rod got his groove on, going 5-for-11 with two homers. The Angels figure to try a different strategy against him than that of the Twins, who mostly opted to throw him fastballs over the heart of the plate.

Numbers

Season series tied 5-5
Angels outscored Yankees 65-55

Runs per game
Angels: 5.45
Yankees: 5.65

Runs allowed per game
Angels: 4.70
Yankees: 4.65

Bullpen ERA:
Angels: 4.49
Yankees: 3.91

Defensive efficiency

Angels: 17th in MLB
Yankees: 13th in MLB

Overrated angle

Jose Molina's presence as the starting catcher for A.J. Burnett

As has been widely discussed, Burnett and Jorge Posada just don't work very well together, and the Yankees opted to go with Molina as the catcher for Burnett in Game 2 of the ALDS. The pairing will be used again in the ALCS, but it shouldn't play a huge role. Since the Yankees will keep carrying a third catcher in Francisco Cervelli, they won't hesitate to have Posada replace Molina as soon as Burnett leaves his two starts.

The over/under for plate appearances for Molina in the ALCS is four. If he hits more than twice in either of his starts, it should mean that the Yankees have scored a bunch of runs or Burnett is working deep into the contest. He came up just once in his start against the Twins.

Underrated angle

The off day advantage for the Yankees.

The Yankees have the best starter. They have the best closer. They have the best setup man. And now they get to use all of them more than they might otherwise because MLB guaranteed itself a little extra revenue by sneaking in an extra off day between Games 4 and 5.

Prediction

Yankees in 6

The Angels should be able to claim a game in New York early with the seemingly even pitching matchups, but I can't help but think they'll need both if they're going to pull off the upset. Weaver's arsenal isn't particularly well suited to keeping the Yankees in check, and the Yankees should have as much success against the Angels pen as they did versus Minnesota's.

The Angels will probably need both Darren Oliver and Brian Fuentes to come up big if they're going to have a chance. The pair threw four scoreless innings against the Red Sox, allowing just one hit in the process. However, the Yankees figure to put up better fights versus both and steal at least one game against them.

It sure blows Dave O'Brien's theory out of the water, doesn't it?

Then again, we already knew that O'Brien hadn't thought this through very well.

According to FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, Hudson is set to decline his half of the $12 million mutual option the Braves hold on his contract and become a free agent.

The news comes in spite of the fact that Hudson recently built a house in Auburn and would surely prefer to stay with the Braves.

A deal may yet be struck, but Hudson has no reason to settle for a one-year pact when teams from both leagues should be very interested in his services. I rate Hudson as the winter's No. 6 free agent and No. 2 pitcher behind John Lackey. Because he recovered his stuff so quickly after Tommy John surgery, he could be looking at something like $50 million for four years this winter.

How can you have spent the last 12 years covering the NL and believe that Brad Hawpe is a legitimate center fielder capable of pushing Kosuke Fukudome to right field?

I actually think Bruce Miles is one of the Cubs' best beat writers, but that's an ugly error. It's not like Hawpe is a newcomer. He's spent five-plus years in the big leagues, he's averaged a 900 OPS in the last four and he even went to an All-Star Game this year.

Hawpe, though, has never played a game in center field and for good reason. He's a natural first baseman who moved to the outfield because of Todd Helton's presence. After doing a respectable job his first few years in the league, he's declined to the point at which his defense has nullified much of his value on offense.

There's a good chance that Hawpe will be traded this winter. The Rockies have Carlos Gonzalez to plug into right field on a full-time basis and they should be fine in center with Dexter Fowler and in left with a combination of Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs and maybe Eric Young Jr.

It is teams with holes at first base and DH that should be looking at Hawpe, though. He'll be of more use there than he is as a liability in a corner outfield spot.

Ryan Howard had the go-ahead hit in the ninth Sunday. This time he settled for the game-tying two-run double and left it up to Jayson Werth to knock him in. Werth, who hit a solo homer in the sixth, did just that with a single to center and the Phillies won 5-4.

The one non-sweep in Divisional Series play featured another thrilling game Monday, with the Rockies scoring three times in the bottom of the eighth, only to have the Phillies come back with three runs in the top of the ninth and clinch the series in four games.

It was the worst possible matchup for the Rockies and then the worst-case scenario Saturday: because of the snowout that pushed back the two games in Denver one day apiece, the Phillies were going to be able to start five straight southpaws against a Colorado lineup that, at its best, features five left-handed hitters.

In the end, the Rockies did their best and got to both Cole Hamels in Game 2 and J.A. Happ in Game 3. However, they fell a little short in Game 3 anyway and they struggled mightily to solve Cliff Lee, who allowed two earned runs over 16 1/3 innings between Games 1 and 4.

So, now Divisional Series play is over, all too soon again. Is there better evidence for the need of a seven-game first round than what happened to Colorado? Baseball is a 25-man game, but the Phillies were able to win a series with one pitcher throwing 45 percent of their innings. It's an absurd way to go about deciding the true champion. Having the best pitcher in a series should provide a nice advantage, but it's too extreme of one in a short series filled with off days.

The Phillies have to be pretty excited with the way they're playing as they head to Los Angeles. Their power hitters are clicking on all cylinders, and even Brad Lidge might have a little confidence back after picking up saves in back-to-back games.

It was exactly the kind of move one might expect from a player who had a chance to play basketball at Harvard.

Fortunately, Dexter Fowler passed on that opportunity and took a $925,000 bonus to sign with the Rockies after being selected in the 14th round in 2004. On Monday, with the Phillies up 2-1 in the eighth, Fowler leapt over Chase Utley on a potential double-play ball, distracting the second baseman and causing a poor throw to second. The Phillies ended up with no outs on the play, and the Rockies went on to score three times and for a 4-2 lead.

In this case, it was probably more athleticism than smarts from Fowler that allowed him to avoid Utley, who had thrown himself into the baserunner's path in an effort to field the ball. A collision seemed the likely result initially, but Fowler edged to the right and jumped over Utley's back before sliding into second. Utley did get the throw away, but it wasn't where Jimmy Rollins expected it and Rollins ended up being charged with an error after it rolled away.

Fowler had reached base on a walk versus Cliff Lee. He singled previously in the game. The rookie had to be disappointed because of the events of Sunday's game, when he was removed in favor of Jason Giambi in the ninth despite already collecting two hits in the game. Giambi popped out against Brad Lidge with the tying run on, and the Rockies went on to lose by one.

The switch-hitting Fowler found himself on the bench frequently against righties down the stretch because of the play of Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez. However, he's started every game of the NLDS with the Phillies throwing nothing but lefties and he'll be in there again Tuesday against Cole Hamels, if the Rockies go on to win tonight. He should be locked in as the Rockies' center fielder next year, with Gonzalez presumably playing regularly in left or right.

Every year, the terribly broken Elias Rankings play a much larger role than most realize in which free agents signs where and when. Fungible relievers and part-time infielders can see their options dwindle because they're foolishly classified as Type A free agents. Meanwhile, starting pitchers in line for $30 million-$40 million contract can come compensation free because the statistics the rankings use so badly fail to measure value.

Now that the long secret rankings have been reverse engineered by Eddie Bajek and the results get updated throughout the year on MLB Trade Rumors, I'm hopeful the league will finally get around to reevaluating them. In the meantime, I have some thoughts on the projected rankings this year.

- First, a quick primer. A team that signs a Type A free agent, has to give up its first pick, unless that pick is in the top 15 in the draft. In that case, the team surrenders a second-round pick. Teams can lose multiple picks. The Yankees lost first-, second- and third-round picks last year for signing Mark Teixieira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Type B free agents require no compensation to sign, but the team that loses them is awarded a newly created pick between the first and second rounds. In both cases, these picks only change hands or are rewarded if the player in question is offered arbitration by his old team.

- The most disturbing rankings this year come in the infield. Orlando Hudson, Miguel Tejada, Marco Scutaro, Placido Polanco and Orlando Cabrera are the Type A free agents. Meanwhile, the infielders likely to get the largest deals -- Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre -- are Type Bs. That makes them even more attractive than they were already. Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa, Freddy Sanchez and Troy Glaus are also relevant Type Bs.

Cabrera would be in line to be ripped off by the rankings system for a second straight year, but as part of his deal with the A's last year, he and his agent smartly included a clause that prevented his team from offering him arbitration this winter. Since the compensation goes away once a player isn't offered arbitration, he can be had without sacrificing a draft pick.

- Because the system treats the positions as equals, the second- and third-tier relievers are always the players most ripped off by the rankings. The league's 20th best reliever isn't worth anywhere near as much as the 20th best starter, yet both are going to be Type-A free agents, meaning a team would have to give up a pick to sign them.

The Type-A free agent relievers this year are Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner, Darren Oliver, LaTroy Hawkins, Rafael Betancourt, Kevin Gregg, John Grabow and Octavio Dotel.

Several of the pitchers won't be offered arbitration, taking them off the list of pitchers who would require compensation. But a couple probably will be offered arbitration and have to accept it, since no one is going to want to both pay them and sacrifice a draft pick. That's what Oliver and the Reds' David Weathers did last year.

- So, that's 10 free agent relievers who claimed Type A status. On the other hand, just two starters did: John Lackey and Randy Wolf. Andy Pettitte, Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, Vicente Padilla, Joel Pineiro, Braden Looper, Jon Garland, Doug David, Randy Johnson, Jason Marquis, Justin Duchscherer and Carl Pavano are all Type Bs.

Then you have Jarrod Washburn, Tim Hudson and Brett Myers, whose teams won't even be awarded a supplemental pick if they leave.

Brandon Webb is also set to be a Type B if his option is declined, which is one more great reason for the Diamondbacks to exercise it. The Yankees and Red Sox will definitely be looking at high upside pitchers like Webb, Harden, Bedard, Hudson and Ben Sheets.

- In the first base-outfield sections of the rankings, Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez were all clear Type As. Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero and Jermaine Dye were also Type As, but Guerrero and Dye, at least, probably won't be offered arbitration.

Two future Hall of Fame managers matched up in the NLDS, and the end result was a no contest. Everything Joe Torre touched this week turned to gold. Tony La Russa, who had more options with his flexible roster, opted to stay the course and came up well short.

Torre's biggest successes:

1. Going to closer Jonathan Broxton early and often.

With his team down 2-1, Torre called on Broxton to begin the top of the eighth in Thursday's Game 2. He saw Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday due up and knew Broxton was his best hope to keep the game close. Broxton responded with a perfect eighth, George Sherrill followed with a scoreless inning and the Dodgers came back to win in the bottom of the ninth.

2. Choosing Vicente Padilla to start Saturday's Game 3

A healthy Hiroki Kuroda likely would have gotten the call, but the Dodgers didn't have that option. Torre had Padilla, Chad Billingsley and Jon Garland to pick from. Padilla was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in seven starts and one relief appearance for the Dodgers, while Garland was 3-2 with a 2.72 ERA. Billingsley, of course, had struggled throughout the second half, but he did rebound with back-to-back quality starts to end the regular season. Padilla proved to be the choice, and he responded with seven scoreless innings, his longest outing as a Dodger.

3. Using Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson at second base

Torre chose to sacrifice some defense and start the hot-hitting Belliard in all three games against St. Louis. Belliard responded by going 3-for-11 with two RBI and two walks. He drove in the tying run in the bottom of the ninth on Thursday.

La Russa, on the other hand, will look back with regrets. Pulling Adam Wainwright after eight innings in Game 2 was a defensible decision. Sticking with Ryan Franklin until he lost the game in the ninth wasn't. Going to Jason LaRue as a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning of a 5-0 game on Saturday was terribly foolish. The idea was to save Troy Glaus for a bigger situation, but the Cardinals' best hope of putting themselves in a position to win the game was to get someone on base to lead off the eighth and Glaus was a lot more likely than LaRue to make that happen.

Of course, it's not La Russa's fault that his team didn't hit. The Cardinals never scored multiple runs in an inning in the three games against the Dodgers. Their defense was shaky as well. Besides the dropped liner from Matt Holliday that cost them Game 2, they had two miscues in Game 3. Joel Pineiro made an error, and Brendan Ryan failed to handle a grounder from Casey Blake that was wrongly ruled an infield single. It was two bad games and one unlucky one at the wrong time for a team that seemed about as good of a bet as any to come out of the NL.

Saturday's Game 3 between the Phillies and Rockies was postponed due to cold weather and snow, leaving the remaining three games in the NLDS series to be played Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

The extra day off would seem to be of clear benefit of the Phillies. They will now bring back Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels on regular rest in Games 4 and 5 of the series. The Rockies can and should do the same, bypassing Jason Marquis in order to throw Ubaldo Jimenez on Monday and Aaron Cook on Tuesday.

It's Pedro Martinez who figures to end up disappointed. The Phillies named him their Game 3 starter after using both Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ in relief on Thursday. Now that there's going to be two days off, rather than one, headed into Game 3, both pitchers are again in position to start and one of the two figures to trump Martinez. Despite suffering a bruised leg Thursday, Happ would seem to be the better option against the lefty heavy Colorado lineup.

Just because a guy has a lousy postseason reputation, it's still probably not the best strategy to start grooving fastballs.

The Twins had Game 2 of the ALDS in control when they took a 3-1 lead in the eighth inning Saturday. They even picked up the last run after Mariano Rivera entered, and they went on to get a scoreless bottom of the eighth from Matt Guerrier. All that was left was for closer extraordinaire Joe Nathan to shut the Yankees down in the ninth.

Of course, it didn't work out that way. Alex Rodriguez, who drove in the Yankees' only previous run when he took a Nick Blackburn fastball left right over the heart of the plate into left field for a single, got a 3-1 fastball left up in the zone and teed off, taking it over the wall in center for a two-run homer.

It was another postseason failure for Nathan, who has given up seven runs in 7 1/3 innings in October action. He has two losses and a blown save to go along with his one save in seven appearances.

For A-Rod, it was even more redemption following his two-RBI game on Wednesday. He has five RBI in the ALDS, matching his high for a postseason series. He also had give in the 2000 ALCS and the 2004 ALCS, both of which were losses for his teams.

The Twins still had a chance from there, but the brutal call from Phil Cuzzi to deny Joe Mauer a leadoff double in the 11th really hurt. The Twins went on to load the bases with no outs anyway, but David Robertson retired Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris to escape the jam.

It was quickly over then. Mark Teixeira scorched a ball to left to begin the bottom of the 11th. A foot lower and he might have been held to a single. Instead, it skipped off the top of the wall for a game-ending homer.

The Yankees will travel to the Metrodome for Sunday's Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 lead. Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano are the scheduled starters, and it now appears as though the Twins might go down without ever throwing their best starter (Scott Baker).

The Twins and Joe Mauer were the latest victims of atrocious postseason umpiring in Friday's game against the Yankees, when the likely MVP sliced a liner down the left-field line and had it drop a foot fair, only to see the ball ruled foul by left-field umpire Phil Cuzzi.

Cuzzi did have to contend with left fielder Melky Cabrera's body on the play, as the ball ticked off Cabrera's glove and then dropped, but he hardly seemed to be screened. He should have had a clear view of the ball coming down inside the line.

Cuzzi's sole purpose in being on the field is making that call, and he simply didn't do his job. It's just the latest example of an obvious call being missed by a seemingly bored umpire, and it's yet another in a long line of great cases for expanded instant replay in baseball.

Forget putting six umpires on the field. Simply put one in the booth with the TBS, FOX or whatever feed in front of him. Within 10 seconds of Cuzzi making the call, it was obvious to the millions of people watching that he had blown it. Why should anyone stand for it? We need to let the players on the field decide the game's outcome, and technology can help get us closer to that goal.

The Angels, who have had three of their last four postseason runs spoiled by the Red Sox, took a big step towards getting the Rally Monkey off their backs with a 5-0 victory in Thursday's ALDS Game 1.

Boston had plenty of reason to gripe after the game. Torii Hunter should have been rung up on strikes before walking to lead the bases in the third. First-base ump C.B. Bucknor missed Kevin Youkilis' obvious tag on Howie Kendrick to extend the fourth inning. Bucknor had an even worse call in the sixth, when Youkilis had to jump off first base to make a catch. He clearly came right back down on the bag, yet Bucknor called the runner safe anyway.

That none of those plays came in innings in which the Angels scored means there won't be any long-term controversy here. Still, those extra pitches Lester was forced to throw added up. Vladimir Guerrero should have been the first out of the fourth, not the last of the third. Jeff Mathis, the easiest out in either lineup, never should have come to the plate in the fourth, yet he made the last out after the blown call on Kendrick. Had things worked out differently, perhaps Torii Hunter never would have made it to the plate to hit his three-run homer in the fifth.

In the end, it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway. After an encouraging first inning, the Red Sox turned in mostly atrocious at-bats against an impressive John Lackey, who pitched 7 1/3 scoreless innings. The only threat was a two-out rally in the sixth, when Dustin Pedroia singled and Victor Martinez walked. Youkilis went on to work a 3-0 count and then took what was clearly ball four on the TBS pitch trax, only to have an inconsistent Joe West call it a strike. He went on to ground out, and the Red Sox put just one runner on during the final three innings.

The story of the game was Lackey's performance. He allowed four hits, walked just the one and struck out four. Darren Oliver replaced him in the eighth and retired five in a row to end the game. It was Lackey's first postseason victory since the 2002 World Series. He had been 0-3 in six outings since. Boston was shut out in the postseason for the first time since 1995.

Pedro Martinez has made an impressive late-season comeback, but Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ still looked like the Phillies' third- and fourth-best starters, if not second- and third-best, entering the postseason. That's why it was such a surprise to see both pitch in relief in Thursday's Game 2 loss to the Rockies.

It was Cole Hamels who started the game. There was really no arguing against it, even if he pitched worse than both Blanton and Happ all season long. The 2008 postseason hero turned in one of his typical 2009 outings against the Rockies, giving up four runs over five innings despite striking out five and walking none. He allowed a two-run homer to Yorvit Torrealba in the fourth. It was Torrealba's first homer since May.

Carlos Gonzalez played key roles in the other rallies. The second-year outfielder singled, stole a base and scored in the first and doubled with Aaron Cook on first in the fifth. Anyone else would have scored on the play, but Gonzalez was denied an RBI. Cook instead came around to score on Dexter Fowler's sacrifice fly.

Hamels exited a 4-0 game, and Blanton came on to pitch a scoreless top of the sixth. The Phillies went on to rally for three in the bottom of the inning, knocking Cook from the game.

From there, manager Charlie Manuel could have stuck with a full rested Blanton and seen if he could have finished the game or at least taken it to the ninth. The Phillies, though, were already warming up Happ. They turned to the left-hander after a double and a mistake on a grounder put two on with none out in the seventh.

Happ's outing turned out to be far shorter than Blanton's. Seth Smith hit one back through the middle that got the left-hander in the shin, knocking him from the game with a bruise. Worse, it loaded the bases with no outs.

Fortunately, Scott Eyre was able to minimize the damage, pitching out of the jam while allowing just one run. Down by two, the Phillies still had chances to come back. However, they were limited to Jayson Werth's solo homer in the eighth. They stranded the go-ahead run on base in the ninth as they lost 5-4.

Now the Phillies face a Game 3 in Colorado potentially started by Martinez. Both Blanton and Happ should be ready to start Game 4. The Phillies could go back to Lee on short rest then if they want, but it would mean scheduling Hamels on short rest in Game 5 and that hardly seems like an ideal situation right now. Reserving Lee for Game 5 remains the smart strategy.

Pedro in Coors will be fascinating to watch, assuming that it materializes. There is one more chance for upheaval, as there's the possibility of snow in Denver on Saturday. If the game gets postponed, the Phillies would again have three starting options in Game 3. Martinez seems likely to take a backseat in that scenario.

Chris Carpenter hadn't issued four walks in a game since an NLCS start in 2006. Randy Wolf hadn't walked five batters since a loss June 27, 2008 against the Mariners. In Wednesday's Game 1, both fell victim to wildness in combining to pitch just 8 2/3 innings in the Dodgers' 5-3 win.

Fortunately for Los Angeles, Wolf was able to pitch out of his jams until the fourth, when Jeff Weaver rescued him with the bases loaded and two out. He was charged with just two runs despite allowing six hits, walking five and hitting a batter in 3 2/3 innings. Two of his free passes were intentional, with both going to Albert Pujols. He was never in control of the game, though.

Carpenter's command problems didn't result in walks early on. Leaving too many pitches in the middle of the strike zone, he gave up a single, a two-run homer and then two more singles before escaping the first. In the third, he hit Andre Ethier and walked Manny Ramirez to start a rally, but he minimized the damage by allowing only a single in the frame. The run he allowed in the fifth was also aided by a walk. He was taken out after that inning, having allowing four runs.

Neither the Dodgers nor Cardinals achieved a 1-2-3 inning until Ronald Belisario induced three straight groundouts by the sixth. By the time the seventh inning rolled around, the teams had already set an NLDS record for men left on base. It ended up as a postseason record. Even though the bullpens combined just two walks in 8 1/3 innings, the game finished with the Dodgers having stranded 16 and the Cardinals 14.

Keeping a team controlled by the game's most tight-fisted owner in contention is no easy feat, and Fredi Gonzalez has a perfectly acceptable .499 winning percentage in his three years at the helm of the Marlins. Still, Florida's success owes far more to the underrated Larry Beinfest than anyone else in the organization. Gonzalez has proven to be a liability time and time again with his managerial decisions, and the Marlins would be in better hands with Bobby Valentine at the helm.

Gonzalez simply has too many blind spots. His biggest this year was named Emilio Bonifacio. The 24-year-old became the everyday third baseman and leadoff hitter out of spring training this year, though little in his record justified the decision. He proved to be a big liability after a hot first two weeks, yet he was still impossible to pry out of the lineup until upper management forced his hand by acquiring Nick Johnson, requiring that Jorge Cantu be moved back to third.

Gonzalez just doesn't seem to have any idea what constitutes good offense. His lineups are always a mess. Hanley Ramirez is, of course, awesome whether hitting first or third. But outside of the third spot, the Marlins got more offense from the sixth and eighth places in the order than any other this year. They received completely inadequate production from the second, fourth and fifth spots surrounding Ramirez, and they only did well in the leadoff spot because of Chris Coghlan's incredible performance after supplanting Bonifacio.

This is nothing new. In 2008, their top spots for offense, besides Hanley Ramirez way up in the leadoff spot, were sixth and then fifth. Those guys were rarely coming up in the same inning as Ramirez.

Gonzalez has perhaps fared a little better when it's come to pitching, though his fixation on making the hardest thrower in the pen a closer has been a problem. In 2007, it was Jorge Julio who started off with the job. In 2008, Kevin Gregg was kept in the closer's role well after his season was shot. In 2009, it was an injury, not a 6.52 ERA over the first 2 1/2 months, that cost Matt Lindstrom his job.

I can't blame Gonzalez for the Marlins' defensive woes, as that's clearly a team effort. Gonzalez seems to have the clubhouse behind him, so if he's put in a position in which he could have a set lineup without much need for maneuvering, he'd be an adequate manager. He's no Valentine, though, and he's probably not the guy to take the Marlins to the next level. Unlike with the Joe Girardi fiasco, a switch was warranted this time.

Brian Powell, who went 7-18 with a 5.94 ERA for four teams over five big-league seasons, shot himself Monday in Florida, leaving behind a wife and three children.

Powell, an All-American at the University of Georgia, pitched for the U.S. in the World Cup in 2004. He was a second-round pick of the Tigers in 1995. He made the majors three years later and went 3-8 with a 6.35 ERA in 16 starts and two relief appearances.

After 1998, he was part of a trade with the Astros that put Brad Ausmus and C.J. Nitkowski in Detroit. Unable to establish himself in Houston, he returned to the Tigers in 2002 and went 1-5 with a 4.84 ERA. His major league career ended in 2004, and he called it quits for good after going 7-13 with a 5.82 ERA for Triple-A New Orleans in 2005.

Apparently satisfied with finishing in fifth place, the Astros have opted to pick up Brian Moehler's $3 million option rather than exercise a $250,000 buyout.

It was actually a mutual option -- the kind that never seems to get exercised -- but Moehler was quick to jump all over the kindhearted gesture. Certainly, no one else was going to be quick to pay him $3 million after a season in which he went 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA and averaged only 5 1/3 innings per start.

Because he averaged so few innings per start, he missed qualifying for the ERA title and finishing with what would have been the NL's worst ERA over Livan Hernandez.

Moehler had more runs allowed than strikeouts this season. He had more than twice as many hits allowed as strikeouts. He even got worse as the year went on, finishing 1-6 with a 6.12 ERA during August and September. In those two months, he allowed 73 hits, walked 21 and struck out 28 in 57 1/3 innings.

There's just so little upside here. Moehler turns 38 this winter. He hasn't had an ERA under 4.50 as a starter since 1998. He hasn't qualified for the ERA title since 2000. He's spent his entire career pitching for clubs that were average or worse, largely because he's always been average or worse.

But this is Ed Wade for you. There's a modest chance Moehler will be worth the $3 million he makes next year, but it's extremely unlikely that he'll be worth more and quite possible that he'll find himself off the roster by June 1. When the Astros spend next year whining about how they can't afford to take on more payroll, remember this completely unnecessary move. There's little doubt the Astros could have had Moehler back for $1 million had they just exercised a little patience.

Here we go again.

For the third straight season, the wild-card winning Red Sox and AL West champion Angels will match up in the ALDS. The Red Sox have gone through the Angels on the way to their last three World Series visits in 1986, 2004 and 2007. They also won last year's series, only to lose to the Rays in the ALCS in seven games. Before the Angels salvaged Game 3 in last year's ALDS, the Red Sox had defeated them in 11 straight postseason contests, dating back to Game 5 in the 1986 ALCS.

While the 2004 and 2007 series seemed like routs, the 2008 ALDS was well played. The Red Sox won the first two on the road 4-1 and 7-5, but the Angels bounced back to take Game 3 in 12 innings, winning 5-4. Boston won the finale on 3-2 on Jed Lowrie's single in the bottom of the ninth.

2009 ALDS Probables

Game 1: Jon Lester vs. John Lackey
Game 2: Josh Beckett vs. Jered Weaver

Game 3: Scott Kazmir vs. Clay Buchholz
Game 4: Joe Saunders vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka

Game 5: Jon Lester vs. John Lackey

The Yankees have chosen the longer ALDS series, leaving the Red Sox and Angels to use four-man rotations. The first look at the matchups suggests that the Red Sox are going to have the advantage in Anaheim and the Angels in Boston.

Lester vs. Lackey

Lackey's struggles against Boston are well known, but his worst outings have come at Fenway. He's 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA in nine starts in Boston and 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA in five starts at home. In the postseason, he's gone 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox (one in 2007, two last year). The Angels scored a total of three runs in those three games.

Lester's postseason career opened in brilliant fashion. In his first start, he pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings to beat the Rockies in the clincher of the 2007 World Series. He then yielded just one unearned run in 14 innings to win twice against the Angels in the ALDS last year. The ALCS didn't go so well, as he was beaten twice, but has a 2.25 ERA in 36 career postseason innings.

The Angels have given Lester big problems in the regular season. He's 1-1 with a 7.78 ERA and a .393 average against in four starts versus the team. Still, all of those came before last year's dominant postseason performance. Lester has been one of the AL's very best pitchers for four months running, going 11-3 with a 2.40 ERA in 21 starts since the beginning of June. He finished third in the league with 225 strikeouts.

Lackey was also on a nice run, though he stumbled in his final three starts. He ended the year 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA. He was down to 3.47 following a solid outing in Boston on Sept. 15, but he allowed 12 earned runs over 13 innings in his following three starts.

Beckett vs. Weaver

Beckett's postseason star lost some luster when he amassed an 8.79 ERA in three starts against the Angels and Rays last year. However, he was dealing with a torn oblique then and he's still 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA lifetime in October. Unfortunately, he's again not at his best headed into the ALDS. Beckett opened the year 14-4 with a 3.10 ERA, but he's gone 3-2 with a 6.02 ERA since. He just missed a start with back spasms.

Weaver's recent performance has also left a great deal to be desired. He started off 7-2 with a 2.08 ERA, but he went 9-6 with a 5.01 ERA in his last 20 starts. He was better than that during September, coming in with a 3.11 ERA, but he was helped somewhat by an easy schedule, as his wins came against the Royals, Mariners and A's. Weaver did impress in his starts against Boston did year. Both came during his spectacular first two months. He allowed one unearned run over 6 2/3 innings to win April 10 and one run over seven innings in a no-decision on May 12.

The start for Weaver will be just the second of his career in the postseason. He lost to Boston after allowing two runs over five innings in Game 3 in 2007. The Angels left him out of their postseason rotation last year.

Kazmir vs. Buchholz

It looked like the Red Sox have overcome their issues with Kazmir when the left-hander went 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts against the team in 2008. However, Kazmir won both of his starts against the team this year and those came when he was a struggling Ray. He had a 1.73 ERA in his six starts with the Angels after posting a 5.92 ERA in 20 outings to begin the year. Kazmir is 8-7 with a 3.59 ERA lifetime against the Red Sox. He's faced them 23 times, nine more times than he has any other team.

Just when the Red Sox were beginning to find some confidence in Buchholz, he went and turned in two stinkers at the end of the year. On Sept. 29, he gave up five homers and seven runs in five innings against the Blue Jays. On the final day of the season, he allowed six runs over three innings versus the Indians.

Before that, Buchholz was 7-3 with a 3.21 ERA. He's still allowed one or no runs in seven of his last 11 starts. He'll be pitching in the postseason for the first time in his career.

Saunders vs. Matsuzaka

The Angels can start a 16-game winner in Game 4. Saunders finished with a 4.60 ERA, but that was mostly the result of a bad midseason run in which he was pitching with a sore shoulder. He had a 3.26 ERA in April and May and a 2.55 ERA in eight starts after coming off the DL in mid-August. He's also 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA lifetime in eight starts against Boston.

Matsuzaka just recently secured his postseason rotation spot. In four starts after returning from a second round of shoulder issues, he went 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. One of those wins came against the Angels, as he blanked the team for six innings on Sept. 15. He's still putting plenty of runners on base -- his WHIP since returning is 1.40 -- but he's remarkable in his ability to pitch out of jams. For the year, he has a .398 average against with the bases empty and a .254 mark with men on. He hasn't allowed a hit with the bases loaded since 2007. In the postseason, he's 3-1 with a 4.79 ERA.

The offenses

The Angels and Red Sox are second and third respectively in the AL in runs per game, behind only the Yankees. One would expect the Red Sox to have modest advantages in OBP and slugging, which the Angels would then make up for with the speed and situational hitting. However, there isn't much of a difference. The Red Sox have a .352 OBP and a .454 slugging percentage, compared to .350 and .441 for the Angels. That's not accounting for the difference that Fenway Park makes in Boston's numbers.

The Angels do hit for a higher average, of course. They led the American League at .285, while the Red Sox came in at .270.

We'll see how much of that advantage carries over to the ALDS. Vladimir Guerrero, Chone Figgins and Howie Kendrick have made a habit of wilting under the spotlight. Kendrick will likely only play against Lester, with the Angels preferring Maicer Izturis at second base for his defense. We don't really know about Kendry Morales yet, but the Red Sox did hold him to a .200 average, no homers and two RBI in nine games this season. He fanned 12 times in 35 at-bats.

The Red Sox will have their full complement of players ready for the ALDS, though whether Mike Lowell (hip, thumb), J.D. Drew (shoulder) and Alex Gonzalez (hand) are truly healthy remains in question. Drew, at least, did his best to show he's ready by smacking two homers on Sunday.

Also important for Boston is that both David Ortiz and Jason Bay are entering October rather hot. Ortiz hit .284/.390/.557 with six homers during September, while Bay came in at .299/.390/.598 with seven homers. Dustin Pedroia is also showing signs of life, having homered on both Saturday and Sunday.

Numbers

Angels won season series 5-4
Angels outscored Red Sox 44-40

Runs per game
Angels: 5.45
BoSox: 5.38

Runs allowed per game
Angels: 4.70
BoSox: 4.54

Bullpen ERA:
Angels: 4.49
BoSox: 3.80

Defensive efficiency

Angels: 17th in MLB
BoSox: 18th in MLB

Overrated angle

Angels basestealers vs. Red Sox catchers

It will certainly be a big subject on the telecasts. Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek are poor throwers, and the Angels have several guys who can steal a base. The Angels probably will do plenty of running if they can get a lot guys on base. But if they can get a lot of guys on base, they're likely to fare well regardless.

What won't get as much play is that the Red Sox should have some success there, too. The Angels stole 23 more bases than the Red Sox this year, but they were caught 24 more times. In fact, they led the league in times caught at 63.

Jeff Mathis, who has been doing more catching than Mike Napoli because of his defense, threw out 26 percent of basestealers this year. His career mark is 23 percent. Napoli was at 22 percent this year and 23 percent for his career. Combined, they allowed 126 steals and threw out 41 runners.

Martinez is expected to be Boston's top catcher in the postseason, with Varitek perhaps not playing more than once a series. Martinez threw out just two of 19 basestealers for the Red Sox. However, 10 of those 17 successful steals came in Tim Wakefield starts and Wakefield won't be pitching against the Angels. With conventional pitchers on the mound, Martinez has allowed seven steals in eight attempts over 27 games caught with the Red Sox.

So, yeah, the Angels should have an advantage here. Whether it's a significant one will hinge on their ability to retire Jacoby Ellsbury. In the end, it typically comes down to who gets the most guys on base, not what the players do once they're there.

Underrated angle

Banged-up Angels bullpen

Brian Fuentes' struggles have been well publicized, but the Angels still had to be feeling good about the way things were setting up with power right-handers Kevin Jepsen and Jason Bulger mowing down hitters. Unfortunately, that's all changed of late. Bulger, who had a 2.03 ERA in 31 innings from July through September, gave up two runs on Saturday and then complained of right shoulder tightness. He had a similar issue in late August that caused him to take a week off. Jepsen, who has given up eight runs in eight innings, has been experiencing dead-arm issues, according the Angels.

If those two aren't 100 percent, then the Angels figure to have major problems in the latter innings. They may well end up giving key frames to Ervin Santana, who was left out of the rotation despite hurling a shutout against the Rangers in his final start of the season. It'd be risky, given Santana's lack of experience as a reliever, but the payoff could be big.

Prediction

Red Sox in 4

With a number of question marks following in the rotation, the Red Sox will badly need Lester to set the tone in Game 1. Lester, though, has already made a habit of coming up big in his young career. He's the better pitcher than Lackey, and even in Lackey's good outings against the Red Sox, he always allowed a couple of runs.

If the Red Sox prevail in Game 1, then they can afford another off outing from Beckett or Buchholz, if not necessarily both. Their home-field advantage is as big as any in baseball, which should help a bunch in those Game 3 and Game 4 matchups that would seem to favor the Angels.

Though he is a quick learner, apparently.

10 years before replacing J.P. Ricciardi and assuming the title of Blue Jays interim general manager, Alex Anthopoulos took part in Scoresheet fantasy baseball, a game of which I also happen to be a fan.

I'm not going to do a full rundown -- if you're interested, click on the link -- but Scoresheet leagues tend to be drafted somewhat similarly to regular fantasy leagues, with the caveat that most are keeper leagues. The big difference is that no categories are involved: games are simulated by the Scoresheet software using actual stats that each player accumulates during each of the 26 weeks of the season. Also, defense counts and managers can employ tendencies, such as when to put the bench into play, whether to sac bunt with anyone but the pitcher and when to pull the starter. It never works perfectly, but it's still plenty of fun to watch unfold, and there's a simulated postseason that uses a mixture of September stats and full-season stats to try to come up with the fairest possible result.

As is turned out, Anthopoulos discovered the game long before I did. Thanks to a hot tip from Rotoworld's Nate Stephens and a little digging, we see that Anthopoulos took part in the 10-team AL-only Harwell League in 1999 and 2000.

In 1999, his "Big Uns" team finished an incredible 49-113, a full 23 games behind any of the league's other nine clubs. It scored 542 runs and gave up 989. For comparison's sake, the 1962 Mets scored 617 runs and allowed 948.

Things got ever so slightly better the following year. In the turnaround to end all turnarounds, Anthopoulos' club went 111-51, a full 62-game improvement. The "Big Uns" scored 1,170 runs and allowed 788. To put that in perspective, one major league team has reached four figures in runs scored in the last 50 years, that being the 1999 Indians at 1009.

So, obviously, this league had some balance issues. Anthopoulos went from worst to first in the regular season and then won the championship 4-1 in the best-of-seven series. Keying his turnaround were some big offseason deals. He moved Mark Mulder, Freddy Garcia and Nick Johnson for Tim Hudson and Paul Konerko. Next was Konerko, Darin Erstad, Kelvim Escobar and one-time top prospect Ryan Anderson for Jason Giambi and Jim Thome. He then spun Thome for Eric Chavez. He somehow managed to swindle away Manny Ramirez, Jorge Posada and Troy Glaus as well, though that did cost him Chavez. Less impressive was trade of Michael Cuddyer for Ron Villone, though that would never come back to haunt him.

To put it mildly, he was an active owner during his two years in the league. But that all changed after 2000, when he got an entry job with the Expos and left fantasy baseball behind. Or at least declined to continue playing under his own name.

Anthopoulos is no lock to keep his GM job once the Blue Jays name a new president, but outgoing CEO Paul Beeston is recommending him for the job. He certainly has my support, and only partly because of the Scoresheet background.

No, the far more significant factor is that, if his team name is any indication at all, he apparently was a "big" Married with Children fan.

Let's just forget for a minute the domestic assault, though I still have a frightened woman's voice running through my head.

Miguel Cabrera betrayed his team on Friday night. It's one thing to blow off some steam after a tough loss. It's entirely another for a 250-pound man to blow a 0.26 on a breath test likely at least an hour or so after he stopped drinking.

That's enough steam to power a locomotive from Detroit to Minneapolis.

And this was the Tigers' biggest weekend of the year. Cabrera's wife called 911 at 6 a.m. Saturday morning. This wasn't a player going out for a couple of hours and then coming home. He was out nearly until dawn, and now the guess is that he was at a hotel partying with one or more members of the White Sox.

Sure, the Tigers could have been all forgive and forget had he shaken off his hangover and launched a homer or two in the series against the White Sox. But he went 0-for-11 with a walk, including 0-for-7 in the two games after the incident. In the bottom of the eighth inning of Saturday's loss, he grounded into a double play to kill a potential rally with one run already in.

Obviously, the MVP candidate was nowhere near 100 percent that night. Cabrera let his employers down. You know, the ones who signed him to a $152.3 million contract a year and a half ago. He let his teammates down. He let his fans down. And he clearly let his family down.

If he were Adam Everett or Marcus Thames, the Tigers would take a stand and bench him on Tuesday. He's Miguel Cabrera, though, so it's not going to happen.

In the Tigers' defense, that'd just be letting his teammates and the team's fans down again. The Tigers have worked too hard for seven months to see it all vanish because the team took a stand against its cleanup hitter. Cabrera, though, deserves the fate, and he'll certainly have some explaining to do this winter.

Dating back to his days with the Marlins, there have been concerns about how Cabrera takes care of himself. He'd never been in trouble with the law before -- that we know of -- but he wasn't as into conditioning as anyone would have liked. That's a big reason why he's now a full-time first baseman; he began his pro career as a shortstop and showed some early promise at third base.

Hopefully, he'll be scared straight by the incident. All signs point to him avoiding criminal charges for the scuffle with his wife that left both with minor injuries. If he were a lesser player, the complete lack of regard for his team would probably make him a trade candidate this winter. The Tigers, though, will stand by him, and perhaps he'll reward them in the end.

With Minnesota completing its three-game sweep of the Royals and Detroit salvaging the finale of a series against the White Sox, the AL Central race ended in a tie, forcing a one-game playoff scheduled for Tuesday.

The ultimate winners in the scenario would seem to be the Yankees, who can look forward to facing a fatigued club to start the ALDS. If there was still any doubt at all, they're now certain to pick the series beginning on Wednesday, rather than Thursday, to give their opponents even less time to recover.

The Tigers were hoping to have the division all wrapped up by Saturday, but since they failed to take care of business, they were forced to go to ace Justin Verlander on Sunday and now they'll use Rick Porcello on Tuesday. If they beat the Twins, they'll still have the ability to have Verlander follow Edwin Jackson and start Games 2 and 5 of the ALDS, but he could be an awfully tired ace. Verlander added to his major league-high pitch total by 120 on Sunday. It's the fourth straight start that he's thrown at least 120 pitches, and he hasn't made a start on more than four days' rest since Aug. 30.

The Twins may be at just as much of a disadvantage. They don't rely as much on their top three starters as the Tigers, but they're going to be stuck using their nominal ace, Scott Baker, on Tuesday. That means he'll be available to start just once against the Yankees. Nick Blackburn, who came up big in outdueling Zack Greinke on Saturday, is lined up for the Game 1 start now. Either Carl Pavano or Brian Duensing would pitch Game 2. Duensing has performed better than Pavano and has the advantage of being a lefty, but given the confidence that manager Ron Gardenhire showed in Pavano by pitching him on short rest Sunday, it seems likely that the veteran will be the choice.

Tuesday's matchup of Porcello and Baker should be a good one. Porcello got the nod over Jackson, who could have made the start on three days' rest. Jackson, though, has struggled in four of his last five starts, whereas Porcello only seems to be getting stronger. The rookie impressed against the Twins in Tuesday's doubleheader, limiting Minnesota to one run in 6 1/3 innings. He's 14-9 with a 4.04 ERA.

Baker overcame an 0-4 start to finish 15-9 with a 4.36 ERA. He had a 3.79 ERA in his final 28 starts. Against the Tigers, he was 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. That win, though, came Thursday, when he allowed just an unearned run over five innings.

So, the starters seem pretty evenly matched. The Twins would seem to have the advantage of a less weary pen, particularly after they were able to give Joe Nathan the day off on Sunday. They'll also finally be able to give Joe Mauer a real day off on Monday. Being that they have the home-field advantage and are the hotter team, they have to be favored to win. The Tigers, though, do have a nice track record against Baker, particularly Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.

With one day left in the season, the AL Central is all tied up. The White Sox and Freddy Garcia saw to that by limiting the Tigers to just one extra-base hit in a 5-1 victory on Saturday. It followed the Twins' 5-4 win over the Royals earlier in the day.

Garcia was terrific against his former team, allowing just five singles through seven scoreless innings. The Tigers threatened in the eighth, when Adam Everett doubled -- giving Detroit its first extra-base hit of the series -- and Curtis Granderson singled to knock Garcia out of the game. Tony Pena came in and immediately allowed an RBI single. However, he got out of the jam from there, as Magglio Ordonez lined out and Miguel Cabrera delivered a double-play ball.

The Tigers' decision not to go with Justin Verlander on three days' rest came back to haunt them, as Alfredo Figaro pitched just 1 1/3 innings as the replacement starter. Incredibly, Tigers manager Jim Leyland brought in his lefty specialist to face one batter with the bases loaded and one out in the second. The move mostly worked, as Fu-Te Ni generated an RBI groundout and Armando Galarraga escaped the inning from there. Gallaraga, though, allowed two runs over the following two innings, and the White Sox had done all of the damage they'd need.

Unfortunately, that obscured some stellar work from 2008 first-round pick Ryan Perry, who threw a career-high three innings without allowing a run.

With just Sunday's action remaining, a one-game playoff on Tuesday now appears destined. The Tigers will start Verlander on normal rest tomorrow, while the White Sox counter with John Danks. Detroit would have both Rick Porcello and Edwin Jackson available on Tuesday, though it'd be Porcello's turn to start.

The Twins made a surprising change after Saturday's game, announcing that Carl Pavano would start Sunday's game on short rest. He's being picked over left-hander Brian Duensing, who beat the Royals by allowing two runs over five innings on Aug. 22. He's 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts this season. Pavano is 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA in 11 starts as a Twin and 3-3 with a 6.63 ERA in six starts against the Royals this season.

The only way one could tell it wasn't a postseason game was that the Royals were involved.

With a full Metrodome rocking it its final days, the Twins beat the Royals 5-4 on Saturday to keep the pressure on the Tigers as they play the White Sox tonight.

This was the game the Twins faced long odds to win. Zack Greinke had given up three runs -- two earned -- in his last six starts, the last being a win over Minnesota last weekend. Nick Blackburn was also pitching well, but as a result of Monday's rainout, he had to pitch on three days' rest for the first time in his career today.

Blackburn, though, excelled, and the teams matched zeroes until the sixth. Nick Punto led off the bottom of the inning with a walk, advanced to second on a sac bunt and then to third on a groundout. That brought up future AL MVP Joe Mauer in a situation that begged for an intentional walk. Greinke, though, wasn't having any of it. Mauer got down in the count 0-2, held on and then lined a single to right.

That figured to be the end of it, but Jason Kubel followed with a ground-rule double that ticked off the glove of a sprinting Willie Bloomquist in left field. After a HBP loaded the bases, Delmon Young delivered a three-run double over the head of an awkward Mark Teahen in right field, making it a 4-0 game. It was the first time all year that Greinke had given up more than three runs in an inning.

So, now the Twins could cruise to a win against a punchless Kansas City offense? No, wrong again. Mike Jacobs had a solo homer in the seventh, and Miguel Olivo started the eighth with a double that got Blackburn pulled. Manager Ron Gardenhire smartly brought in lefty Jose Mijares to face Alex Gordon. Mijares had limited left-handed hitters to a .139 average and two homers in 101 at-bats. Gordon was hitting .146 with two homers in 48 at-bats against left-handed pitching.

Gordon, of course, launched a ball over the baggie in right, making it 4-3. The Royals tied it up in the same inning on a double-play ball.

The decisive blow was supplied by Michael Cuddyer in the bottom of the eighth. The Royals let lefty Dusty Hughes face him, even though he's hit .303 with 14 homers in 165 at-bats against southpaws, and Cuddyer stung a liner to the opposite first for his 31st homer of the year. Joe Nathan went on to pitch a perfect ninth, with some help from Denard Span in right field, for his 47th save.

The Twins are now just a half-game back of the Tigers in the Central race. Rather than bring Justin Verlander back on three days' rest, Detroit will start rookie Alfredo Figaro tonight against Freddy Garcia and the White Sox.

Kevin Towers, the longest tenured GM in baseball, will be let go after 14 years running the show in San Diego, Padres CEO Jeff Moorad confimed Friday night.

The long rumored move will come following a second straight losing season. The Padres have improved from 63-99 in 2008 to 74-85 so far this year, but the second-half surge did Towers no good. The writing had been on the wall since the moment Moorad took control of the team earlier this season.

Despite typically modest payrolls, the Padres won four division titles during Towers' stay. However, they also finished in fourth or fifth place nine times and lost 95 games on three occasions.

Towers should still be remembered rather fondly in San Diego for the Adrian Gonzalez/Chris Young fleecing of the Rangers. His trades for Phil Nevin, Ryan Klesko and Woody Williams were also big successes, though those teams at the beginning of the decade were failures anyway. His ability to put together quality bullpens, that were always very cheap outside of Trevor Hoffman, had to be one factor that gave Moores pause before he decided to let him go.

But, in the end, player development problems doomed Towers. In my Restoring the Rosters series in August, I ranked the Padres 28th in talent signed. Of the 28 first- and supplemental first-round picks to come on board during Towers' tenure, only one, Khalil Greene, has turned into a quality major leaguer. Now, it's still too early to judge those last 10, all of whom have been drafted since 2007, and Tim Stauffer is recently showing signs of life, but that's an abysmal track record.

The Padres need some new blood, so they'll look outside of the organization for a successor. Jerry DiPoto and Peter Woodfork, both of whom worked with Moorad in Arizona, seem like logical choices. DiPoto has been a hot name the last couple of years anyway, and he should be considered the favorite for the job,

Blame the pitching coach. That's what the Reds did Friday when they announced that Dick Pole was being terminated while the rest of the coaching staff would return in 2010.

So, why Pole? The Reds have boasted above average pitching this year, with an ERA+ of 105. They rank seventh in the NL in ERA and eighth in the league in runs allowed despite playing in a ballpark that's kind to hitters.

The offense, in comparison, has been brutal. The Reds have an 83 OPS+, barely ahead of the Giants at 82. The league's next worst team comes it at 89. They rank 11th in runs scored anyway, but they're closer to last place than they are to the Nationals in 10th. Only the Petco-deflated Padres have a worst average, and the Giants are the only team with a lower OBP.

So, I ask once again, why Pole? Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Aaron Harang have all improved from 2008. Homer Bailey has also shown signs of progress. Nick Masset has gone from fringe property to middle-relief stud, and Daniel Ray Herrera has proven a bunch of people wrong by succeeding in a setup role. Pole can hardly be blamed for Edinson Volquez's injury, and if he failed to turn Micah Owings around, well, maybe Owings just isn't destined to make it as a starter. The only pitcher to take a big step back this year was setup man Jared Burton, and even he's been much improved over the last two months.

Better if the Reds had just fired Dusty Baker. Pole would have been gone anyway, too, but at least the blame would have fallen where it belongs.

Brian Sabean will have a shiny new contract extension thanks to the Giants' turnaround this season, but as discussed Thursday, he's going to have to rework his team's offense if he expects to take it to the next level.

The opportunity will certainly be there. The Giants would seem to have just two locks for the 2010 lineup in corner infielder Pablo Sandoval and outfielder Aaron Rowand. The payroll, which came in at just under $90 million this year, should expand, probably to $100 million or so.

That would leave the Giants with about $35 million to spend. They're currently at $52 million for 2010, but Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson and Jonathan Sanchez are due large raises as first-time arbitration-eligible players. The latter two figure to come in at $5.5 million-$6 million combined. Lincecum could aim for the $10 million that Ryan Howard received a super-two player in 2008, but the Giants would save additional money there by signing him to a long-term deal.

So, let's examine the Giants' options position by position and figure out how that money would best be spent.

Catcher
In-house options: Buster Posey, Eli Whiteside, Steve Holm

If the Giants are ready to trust Posey after he hit .325/.416/.531 between high-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno in his first full pro season, they'll have more money to spend elsewhere. It wouldn't be such a bad idea to give him another two or three months in the minors, but they're probably not going to be able to get free agent Bengie Molina to go for the idea of sticking around on a one-year contract and then fading into a reserve role as the year goes on.

So Molina is likely a goner. Inking Yorvit Torrealba, Brian Schneider or Jason Kendall to a one-year deal and then having Posey compete against the veteran in spring training seems like the best strategy.

First base-third base
In-house options: Pablo Sandoval, Travis Ishikawa, Ryan Garko, John Bowker, Jesus Guzman, Ryan Rohlinger

We'll combine these two positions, since we know Sandoval will be starting at one of them. The 23-year-old is committed to getting into better shape this winter, and if he does, he might last at the hot corner for a couple of more years. Still, he's been below average there this season and it's hard to imagine him staying at the position for the long haul. He might become a Gold Glove first baseman someday if he makes the switch, so I still think third base is a viable place for the Giants to upgrade this winter.

If Sandoval stays at third, then first base becomes a prime spot for an upgrade. As is, it's shaping up as a platoon situation, with Ishikawa and Bowker battling for the job against right-handers and either Garko or an outside acquisition getting the nod against lefties. Garko is eligible for arbitration for the first time and is probably due $1.5 million or so. He'd likely be non-tendered if the Giants acquire another corner infield option.

Second base
In-house options: Freddy Sanchez, Eugenio Velez, Kevin Frandsen, Emmanuel Burriss, Matt Downs

Sanchez's $8.1 million option would have vested had he stayed healthy after joining the Giants. As is, the team will buy it out for $600,000. Still, the Giants could re-sign him at a lesser salary. The internal alternatives are unattractive. Velez offers some intriguing potential at the top of the lineup, but his footwork at second is terrible and he makes far more sense in the outfield. Frandsen has fallen out of favor and likely will be traded or non-tendered.

Shortstop
In-house options: Edgar Renteria, Emmanuel Burriss

Sabean made a huge mistake with Renteria, but that the deal was just two years means he doesn't have to be guaranteed anything entering 2010. He can be a $9 million backup or he could potentially be traded for another bad contract (Milton Bradley's?). The Giants could re-sign free agent Juan Uribe to battle for the job at shortstop. There aren't going to be any star shortstops available this winter, but Marco Scutaro could be a significant upgrade.

Center field
In-house options: Aaron Rowand, Eugenio Velez, Andres Torres

Rowand is owed another $36 million over the next three years and has never been worse than adequate, so he can remain a starter. Perhaps the Giants will look for ways to move him, but they'd likely only be able to exchange him for another bad contract at a position that's easier to fill. Given that the best free agents this winter play the corner positions, it makes sense to live with Rowand in center.

Left field-right field
In-house options: Nate Schierholtz, Eugenio Velez, Fred Lewis, John Bowker, Andres Torres

Obviously, the Giants are going to do something here. They could let the players above battle for one starting job if they sign one outfielder and a corner infielder or they might fill both outfield openings with veterans. Ideally, neither scenario would involve re-signing Randy Winn.

Here's my lineup idea:
SS Marco Scutaro
2B Akinori Iwamura
1B Pablo Sandoval
LF Vladimir Guerrero
3B Adrian Beltre
RF Nate Schierholtz
C Buster Posey
CF Aaron Rowand

Bench: Eugenio Velez, John Bowker, Edgar Renteria, Brian Schneider, Andres Torres

If the Giants eschew going after Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, they could potentially land four above average regulars for their $35 million. Guerrero and Beltre don't seem likely to get much more than $10 million per year -- and Guerrero might have to settle for a one-year contract -- and Scutaro is probably due around $7.5 million per year for two years. The Giants could vastly upgrade their infield defense and break in a couple of younger players. Schierholtz probably won't be much of an asset offensively in right field, but he is a very good defender, which is very important in AT&T's big right field.

Now, I don't really expect it to work out that way. The Giants figure to go hard after both Holliday and Bay, and I think they have to be considered one of the favorites to land one of the two. Chone Figgins is another possible target with the team in need of a leadoff man. If they fail in their bids, then they could aim to trade for Carl Crawford or Prince Fielder. Dan Uggla is a lesser name that makes sense for the team, though I'd prefer him at third base.

If, on the other hand, the Giants opt to overspend on Orlando Hudson and aim for past-their-prime players like Jermaine Dye and Carlos Delgado, it could be a disappointing 2010. Sabean has always thought older means better, at least when it comes to position players, and he clearly values predictability over upside. Consider it a very bad sign if he kicks off the offseason by talking with Winn about a new deal.

The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that the Giants will re-sign both GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy to contract extensions.

Both are being rewarded for the Giants' turnaround from a 72-90 team in 2008 to one that remained in contention until the final week of 2009.

It's a definite case of good timing for both, in that their contracts came up after this year. Bochy is still just 229-254 in his three years at the helm of the Giants. Sabean benefitted from having one of the best players ever for the first 11 years of his reign, yet his teams advanced past the NLDS just once, losing to the Angels in the World Series in 2002.

Giving Sabean and Bochy three-year extensions isn't something the Giants will want to do, but it'd be tough to do shorter deals without undermining them. This is a huge offseason for the team, what with Bengie Molina and Randy Winn coming off the books and Tim Lincecum ready to discuss an extension. The Giants simply must upgrade the offense and they have the flexibility to go about it in any number of ways; Pablo Sandoval and Aaron Rowand should be the only locks for the 2010 lineup, and Sandoval could play either third or first. Unfortunately, finding productive hitters is far and away Sabean's biggest weakness and the Giants could be setting themselves up for another fruitless run by relying on him again.

It wasn't what they needed, but the Twins still have some life after winning two out of four games in Detroit.  Thursday's game turned into a rout in the eighth as Minnesota ended up winning 8-3.  That leaves the Twins two games back with three to play.

What's left may favor the Twins a bit.  They have three home games against the Royals this weekend, while the Tigers have a home series against the White Sox.  Let's look at the probable matchups:

Kansas City at Minnesota

Fri: Lenny DiNardo vs. Jeff Manship

Sat: Zack Greinke vs. Nick Blackburn

Sun: Luke Hochevar vs. Brian Duensing

Chicago at Detroit

Fri: Jake Peavy vs. Edwin Jackson

Sat: Freddy Garcia vs. Alfredo Figaro

Sun: John Danks vs. Justin Verlander

Minnesota's starters are all tentative at the moment, but that's how it's lining up.  Manship appears likely to get the nod on Friday because Francisco Liriano threw an inning Wednesday.  Blackburn would be starting on short rest after being pushed back from Monday to Tuesday by the rainout.

The Tigers aren't in such an urgent position, so they won't go with Verlander on short rest Saturday.  Verlander will probably be limited to a couple of innings Sunday if the Tigers have clinched by then.  The Tigers will also probably want Rick Porcello to throw a couple of innings then.

The Greinke roadblock is huge, so even if the White Sox step up and claim two out of three games this weekend, the Twins have their work cut out for them to force a one-game playoff.

I couldn't help but have a different take on Dave O'Brien's Tim Hudson piece than Craig did this morning.

My take being that O'Brien should stick to writing about the Braves and give up trying to predict the free agent market.

From O'Brien:

There's no doubt in my mind (Hudson would) take quite a bit less than $12 mill per season to stay here in a multi-year extension, probably less than $10 mill per. And I don't think any other team would offer him even that much right now, not until he's back for a full, healthy and strong season.

I'm not going to argue against the idea that Hudson would take less to stay in Atlanta. But the idea that Hudson will need to settle for less than $10 million or even $12 million per year is bizarre.

Let's just look back at last year's contracts for free agent starting pitchers:

CC Sabathia - seven years, $23 million per year
A.J. Burnett - five years, $16.5 million per year
Derek Lowe - four years, $15 million per year
Ryan Dempster - four years, $13 million per year
Oliver Perez - three years, $12 million per year
Kyle Lohse - four years, $10.25 million per year

Not one of those pitchers can match Hudson's career 126 ERA+ (ERA adjusted for league and ballpark). Sabathia entered free agency at 121 and is at 123 now. Lowe was also at 121. Burnett, who has never had a season ERA+ as high as 126, came in at 111.

And this year's class isn't nearly as strong overall. Other than perhaps wild card Aroldis Chapman, who probably isn't ready to be an asset now, I see only one starter as a better bet than Hudson on a long-term deal, that being John Lackey.

Even that's iffy. So what if Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery. He made it back in excellent time, and he's throwing just as hard now as he was before the procedure. His groundball rate is actually better than ever, though it's a very small sample size. That he'll end this year having only thrown 65 innings or so, in my opinion, only makes him a better bet for 2010.

Hudson has been a workhorse throughout his career, and there's no reason to think he won't recapture that form now that he has a new elbow ligament. I'd take my chances with him at $50 million-$56 million for four years over Lackey at $75 million-$80 million for five.