Keith Law turns in his annual list of the top 50 free agents over at ESPN.com (Insider only).  On the heels of his Cy Young ballot yesterday, you won't be surprised to learn that he has Carl Pavano at number one.

OK, he doesn't. I kid Keith because I love Keith.  His list, as always, is a postseason must-read.

I'm biased, of course, so I think Matthew's outrageously thorough series breaking down the free agents by position should be the first place you look, but there's lots to chew on in Law's piece, and second opinions are always welcome when it comes to this stuff. 

If Tim Lincecum truly regrets anything, he probably regrets getting caught the most. But he's pretty hip to the P.R. issues surrounding his pot bust and because of it he offered a statement following his post-Cy Young interview yesterday:

"I made a mistake and I regret my actions. I want to apologize to the Giants organization and the fans. I know as a professional athlete I have a responsibility ... both on and off the field. I promise to do better in the future."

I think the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman summed up this business the best the other day: "I know this whole Lincecum story is considered overblown and a joke in Northern California, where many folks probably vacuum more than 3.3 grams of pot residue off their carpets at home, but it's taken seriously elsewhere and by Major League Baseball."

I'd argue that in an ideal world it shouldn't be taken all that seriously, but we don't live in an ideal world.  We live in a world where people freak out about small amounts of generally innocuous, generally harmless plants while drugs that actually kill a lot of people are allowed to advertise on outfield walls. We live in a world where the same writers who just acknowledged via their awards vote that it's possible for a guy to take a certain drug and still be a world class athlete also write about how bad a thing it was for that athlete to take that drug.

I understand that Lincecum broke the law and should pay his fine. I also understand that he's subject to a collective bargaining agreement that tells him he can't smoke pot, and to the extent that agreement calls for anything to happen to him because of it, so be it.  But the fact that we expect guys like Lincecum or Michael Phelps or whoever to make public apologies like this is a bit much for me.

There aren't many people who know the Red Sox front office better than Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes do, and this morning they provide their views as to what that front office is going to do this offseason. Their thinking:

• They both think that Jason Bay will stay in Boston, mostly because the Mets don't have the cash to beat a Boston offer and none of the other potential suitors -- the Giants, Mariners, Angels or maybe the Cardinals -- don't really work for a number of reasons. I agree. Bay has a pretty comfortable job in Boston. Anywhere else he goes his defense will be a bigger issue than it is in Fenway. I think he stays.
  
  
• Despite declining Alex Gonzalez's option, he'll stay around too, yielding to Jed Lowrie if Lowrie proves that he can stay healthy, and generally providing some insurance for a position that always seems to be unsure in Boston.  My view: not sure there are any better options out there. Omar Vizquel maybe? Either way, cover it with a glove and wait for Jose Iglesias to mature.
  
  
• Forget the Adrian Gonzalez speculation. Jed Hoyer knows who the best Sox prospects are. The Sox don't want to trade their best prospects. They just don't match up. It's way more likely that the Sox will convince the Blue Jays that their second tier prospects are really top shelf guys and pry away Roy Halladay.  My view: there's too much risk with a Sox-Padres trade right now. Whoever loses the trade is going to be accused by talk radio and the local papers of giving a gift to their buddy, and no one likes that kind of garbage.
  
  
• The Sox are going into 2010 banking on a rebound by David Ortiz, a healthy Mike Lowell, and having Victor Martinez around all season. My view: they are about 33% likely to realize an overall offensive improvement from that strategy.  Could be a tough year on offense for Boston.
  
  
• They're likely to once again explore the high-risk, high-reward scrap heap for some pitching depth, with Gammons and Edes both mentioning Ben Sheets and Rich Harden.  Actually, Edes calls this "low-risk, high reward." That makes no sense to me. Maybe it's "low money," but anytime you commit a roster spot to a guy and exclude other possibilities, you create at least some risk.  If you use that roster spot on guys with injury histories like Sheets and Harden, you're creating high risk.  One would think that the Smotlz-Penny experience of last season would have hipped Edes to this.
  
  

Right now the odds favor a stand-pat kind of offseason for Boston. Which, given the relative dearth of high-quality free agents and trade bait, is probably the most prudent move.  There's no shame in playing for the Wild Card Red Sox fans.

As Matthew noted yesterday, while Aaron Heilman has started before, he's probably a better bet to pitch out of the pen.  Seems that the Dbacks' GM Josh Byrnes agrees, as he said last night that Heilman "definitely strengthens our bullpen."

Remember back when Heilman's agent made a big fuss over this, saying "The object is to get out of the bullpen. The most success he's ever had as a pitcher has been as a starting pitcher. He was drafted by the Mets as a starting pitcher"?

Yeah, that was objectively wrong -- Heilman's ERA as a starter is 5.93 and 3.63 as a reliever -- but even the best of us have a hard time admitting that we're not as good at what we want to do in life as opposed to what we like to do.  So keep an eye on the Dbacks camp come February and wait for the complaining to start.

Stephen Strasburg twisted his knee shagging fly balls yesterday. They say it wasn't necessarily serious, but he "heard a 'pop' in his knee and crumpled to the ground" and is being sent to L.A. to be examined by an orthopedist.  This is the best part:

Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo did not immediately return voice and text messages seeking additional information, and players and coaches in Arizona were instructed not to discuss the injury with the media.

Anyone else get an image of Rizzo crouched in the fetal position on the floor behind his desk, rocking back and forth and repeating "this is not happening . . . this is not happening . . ." as his cell phone rings constantly?

Paul Lo Duca was on XM radio yesterday lobbying for a spring training invite:

"I'm completely healthy. I feel unbelievable. I've been hitting the last four or five days constantly and started my workouts. I feel great. My hand feels 100 percent for the first time in a while. My hamstring and my knee finally healed after the surgery I had there. ... I want to come back and play."

You know, there are crazier things than a team taking a chance on Lo Duca. For example, maybe there's a 37 year-old, no-hit catcher who wrote personal checks to buy illegal drugs, had an affair with a teenager and was caught up in gambling allegations who doesn't have Lo Duca's infectious enthusiasm.

There has long been an assumption that either the Yankees or the Red Sox will the ultimate landing pad for Roy Halladay, but it's just been speculation.  It's getting less speculative, however, as Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees have actually called the Jays about Doc. 

Heyman thinks that the starting point of any Yankees-Jays talks would be either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes (last year the Jays wanted both, but probably weren't serious about trading with the Yankees).  Catching prospect Jesus Montero is mentioned, but young stud catchers are harder to find than ace pitchers, and given how old the Yankees' current catcher is, he's probably off limits.

One direction Heyman doesn't mention is the possibility of the Yankees going in with little in the way of young talent, but instead eating Vernon Wells' deal or something creative like that.  That's certainly something they would have done a couple of years ago, but the Hal Administration has been smarter about taking on big dumb deals lately. They take on big smart deals.

If the Yankees nab Halladay: turn out the lights, baseball, the party -- at least for 2010 -- is likely over. 

The awards parade continues at 1:30 Eastern today, as the NL Cy Young Award is going to be announced.  Guys like Javier Vazquez and Josh Johnson could get some love, but most folks (including this folk) believes it will come down to one of these three guys:

Tim Lincecum: the incumbent had a lower ERA than he did in 2008. He walked fewer guys than he did in 2008. He struck only four fewer across a nearly identical number of innings. The only place where he took a hit was in his win total, and that's largely on the Giants' offense.  If Greinke's award showed anything it showed that the writers are smarter about wins these days, so that shouldn't be fatal to his chances, but they're still all about storylines.  Greinke was the new young stud to most BBWAA members.  Lincecum was that last year.  It would not surprise me at all if the writers did here what they so often do and vote for a fresher face, even if he had a lesser arm.

Chris Carpenter: Not a fresh face, but certainly a comeback story and writers LOVE comeback stories.  That aside, he's not all storyline. In fact, he'd be a great choice as he led the league in ERA, didn't allow home runs, didn't walk anyone and was absolutely essential to the Cards race to the division title. 

Adam Wainwright: Won more games than either Carpenter or Lincecum, but allowed more baserunners and stuff too (his WHIP: 1.210.  Lincecum's: 1.047; Carpenter's: 1.007).  He's the freshest face here, though, and even if the wins won't be the determining factor, at least a couple of writers may go in with that in an otherwise close race.

If you put a gun to my head I give it to Carpenter, though I'd be happy with Lincecum too because (a) it's close; and (b) man, he's pretty awesome to watch and dammit this is my blog and I'm allowed to credit him for that.  I think the writers will go with one of those two first and Wainwright in third.

Not that you didn't know that already (remember how Oliver Perez was the next Sandy Koufax?).  But now MLB brass is coming right out and saying it:

Major League Baseball executive vice president Rob Manfred responded strongly to revenue sharing figures thrown out by Scott Boras at last week's general managers' meetings indicating that Boras's numbers "have no basis in reality" and that Boras is living in "fantasy land."

Here Manfred is referring to Boras' comments last week that there are Major League teams who receive $80 million from a baseball central fund and just pocket it rather than put it into payroll to make the teams better.

Given his penchant for exaggeration, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Boras' actual numbers are off.  But the thing is, he's not wrong about the dynamic. Teams do take revenue sharing money and stash it or use it to pay down debt from their initial purchase of the team.  There really is a strategy among some owners to maximize franchise value -- which is where their money comes from -- as opposed to maximizing wins and season-to-season revenue.  Running a losing team with low gate is still a great deal as long as the team is low on debt, there's a nice, owner-friendly stadium deal in place, and as long as MLB central will never let a franchise truly crater.

So maybe Boras' $80 million figure is "fantasy land."  But even if were, say, $40 million, it doesn't make him wrong.

Via MLB Trade Rumors comes a Tweet from NPB Tracker in which it is claimed that Hideki Matsui's mere presence on the New York Yankees accounts for "at least" $15 million in annual revenue.  NPB bases this assertion on a report that's written in Japanese, so it's hard to say where this figure comes from, but we can spitball it a little, can't we?

One obvious source of income that would presumably dry up if Matsui leaves are those Japanese language billboards that appear on the Yankee Stadium outfield wall and behind home plate and stuff during games.  I'm not privy to how much revenue those bring, but I do know that the Cubs recently entered into a a five-year, $10.8 million deal with Under Armour to have its logo displayed on the outfield doors at Wrigley Field.

That led to some litigation which at least suggested that the deal wasn't worth the money to Under Armour (UA wanted out from under the deal, the Cubs sued to keep it in place), so a ~$2 million a year value for that may be high as these things go. At least in Chicago and at least when it doesn't involve the Japanese market.  Let's say that the Yankee Stadium ads are worth half again as much as the UA ads are. $3-4 million? I could totally see that.

After that, figure in a few million for Matsui and Yankee merch in Japan.  Then figure in the fact that a bunch more eyes are watching Yankee broadcasts in Japan as well.  Once you start adding these things up, it's not hard to envision a situation in which, even if Matsui's contract isn't totally paid for, it's heavily subsidized by revenue specific to his presence on the roster.

In the ordinary course it makes little sense to sign a 35 year-old guy who can only DH to a multi-year deal in excess of eight figures annually.  In light of the Matsui-related revenue, however, I'd be shocked if the Yankees didn't sign the guy.