Recently by D.J. Short

Thumbnail image for miguelcabrera.jpgHere's a few Hot Stove items of note as we eagerly await 12:01 am on Friday:

- Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com thinks that if the Tigers aim to cut payroll, they should consider trading Miguel Cabrera to the Red Sox. Likewise, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe thinks Cabrera should be on Boston's short-list of possible middle-of-the-order bats. Cabrera, 26, is owed $126 million over the next six seasons.

- Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes that the Phillies reportedly have interest in Fernando Rodney, but he might not be an option since he will want to close. In a related story, Brad Lidge "should be ready at or near the very beginning of spring training" following elbow surgery, says his agent Rex Gary.

- Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes that the Pirates won't be major players in free agency yet again, but they could have interest in lower-tier free agents like Rick Ankiel, Jamey Wright, Mark Hendrickson and Japanese pitcher Ryota Igarashi.

- Roch Kubato of the MASNSports.com wonders if the Orioles will consider signing Braden Looper, Jon Garland or Matt Treanor since the club was connected to them last winter.

- Jesse Spector of the New York Daily News takes a look some of the top set-up men available on the free agent market, and how arbitration and draft pick compensation may impact where they end up.

Thumbnail image for figgins getty.jpgThe following are the top ten free agents, as ranked by 2009 WAR, or Wins Above Replacement (compiled with FanGraphs):

1) Chone Figgins - 6.1
2) Matt Holliday - 5.7
3) Joel Pineiro - 4.8
4) Felipe Lopez - 4.6
5) Marco Scutaro - 4.5
6) Mike Cameron - 4.3
7) John Lackey - 3.9
8) Carl Pavano - 3.7
9) Jason Bay - 3.5
10) Andy Pettitte - 3.3

Thumbnail image for holliday_090827.jpgSome have speculated that Matt Holliday's relationship with new hitting coach Mark McGwire might be one of the selling points to keep him in St. Louis. Well, think again.

In an interview with Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune, agent Scott Boras attributed Holliday's early season struggles to swing changes McGwire had made during offseason coaching sessions.

"After five weeks [Holliday] went back to his old stance," Boras said. "From that point on, he was the same player he always has been."

Coincidence or not, Holliday batted just .226/.282/.383 with four home runs, 20 RBI and a .665 OPS over the first 28 games of the season with Oakland. He hit .335/.419/.547 with 20 homers, 89 RBI and a .967 OPS from that day forward.

For all the concern about Holliday's home/road splits, it's worth noting that he batted .377/.442/.667 with nine home runs, 35 RBI and a 1.119 OPS at Busch Stadium, a place that was one of the toughest stadiums for a right-handed hitter during the 2009 season, according to the newest Bill James Handbook. Even tougher than Citi Field, a supposed "death valley for right-handed hitters."

Boras might be using McGwire's adjustments as a bit of a scapegoat here, but it's clear that Holliday can be a productive hitter just about anywhere.

Making his first Arizona Fall League start in 12 days, Nationals prospect Stephen Strasburg blanked the Peoria Saguaros over 3 1/3 innings on Saturday, allowing just one hit while striking out six and walking two.

Strasburg tossed 36 of 64 pitches for strikes while his fastball was clocked as high as 99 mph. The 20-year-old was scheduled to pitch last Saturday's "Rising Stars Game," but was scratched after suffering a stiff neck.

"It was a good day. My goal was just to go out there and pound it in the strike zone," Strasburg said.

Strasburg's 4.26 ERA over 19 innings might not jump out at you, but take out one hiccup against Peoria on October 22 (seven runs allowed in 2 2/3 innings) and he is a much more impressive 4-0 with a 1.10 ERA. Strasburg's four wins lead the AFL, while his 23 strikeouts in 19 innings ranks third.

While Strasburg was denied the stage of the "Rising Stars Game," his next start will most likely come in next Saturday's AFL championship game. Strasburg's team, the Phoenix Desert Dogs, have a four-game lead on the Eastern division title with five games left on the docket.

Thumbnail image for lackey.jpgWe're just one week away from when the free agency floodgates open, meaning that we're in the calm before the Hot Stove storm. Here's a few links to keep you busy on this Saturday:

- David Lennon of Newsday writes that the Mets intend to be serious bidders for free agent starter John Lackey. General manager Omar Minaya received a 'favorable first impression' from Lackey's agent Steve Hilliard when the two spoke this week. Lennon compares the potential pursuit of Lackey to that of Francisco Rodriguez last December, but the Mets figure to have more competition this offseason as he is the top starter available in the free agent market.

- FOXSports.com reports that the Nationals are drawing strong trade interest in outfielder Josh Willingham, with the Braves among the interested parties. Willingham, 30, batted .260/.367/.496 with 24 homers, 61 RBI and a career-high .863 OPS in 2009 after starting the season as the team's fifth outfielder. Willingham is under team control through 2011 and earned $2.95 million in 2009.

- No surprise, Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times says the New York Baseball Digest report suggesting that Carl Crawford wants out of Tampa Bay doesn't add up.

- According to FOXSports.com, the Brewers talked about sending J.J. Hardy to the Pirates, but weren't interested in Ryan Doumit or Matt Capps. Instead, the Brewers tried to upgrade their starting pitching, asking for either Paul Maholm or Zach Duke. After the Pirates refused, the Brewers sent Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez.

- And finally, for some levity, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Lance Berkman had a dream that he was traded to the Mets. Hey, it probably has a better chance of happening than many of the 'silly season' rumors we've heard this week.

Whether you buy the rumors of a possible Curtis Granderson trade or not, their most valuable asset is ace Justin Verlander. The 26-year-old workhorse was 19-9 with a 3.45 ERA in 2009, leading the majors with 35 starts, 240 innings pitched and 269 strikeouts.

While stopping short of deeming any player "untouchable," general manager Dave Dombrowski acknowledged that he would like to keep him around for a while:

"I won't get into that because that is best kept internal," he said. "But it is safe to say that we would like to have Justin in the organization for a long time."

Verlander is under team control for two more seasons. He earned $3.75 million in 2009, and should see a huge raise this winter. If he stays healthy, he'll surely sign a contract that will top the $100 million threshold. Fortunately for the Tigers, they have Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman and possibly Magglio Ordonez coming off the books after 2010.

Thumbnail image for crawford.jpgAccording to a report from Mike Silva's New York Baseball Digest, Carl Crawford is "livid" over management's decision to pick up his $10 million option for next season and now wants out of Tampa.

Says a source with the knowledge of the situation:

"He wants out of Tampa bad. He had a handshake agreement with management that they would renegotiate the contract instead of picking up the option and they went ahead and did it anyway. He's pissed beyond belief."

Crawford, 28, signed a four-year, $15.25 million extension with the Rays in 2005, with club options for two additional years. He is expected to be among the most coveted free agents next winter.

While not impossible, it would be irresponsible to give this rumor too much validity. Silva deserves credit for getting the Wally Backman-Brooklyn Cyclones story right, but he also found an MLB executive who said the following about "Moneyball" and advanced metrics:

Among other sewage that has oozed to the surface is the erroneous belief that statistics are the end-all in baseball today, a myth perpetrated by the garbage called "MoneyBall." Moneyball geniuses have flopped like DePodesta, Ricciardi, and even the infamous Billy Beane whose exploits have all lacked a World Series trophy. It is all a tool to be used by the uninitiated. I'll take a good scout and player development people anytime; the statistics are very secondary. How do you account a .220 hitter for being the hero of the World Series or a guy who hits three home runs a year wins the pennant clincher with a home run? Pitchers often get the best of hitters in the playoffs. There are a million examples of things going against the logic of statistical analysis.

Let's just say his "sources" might not know what they're talking about.

alfonzo.jpgAccording to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post, Edgardo Alfonzo wants one more shot to end his career with the Mets.

"My dream is to retire with the Mets colors," Alfonzo said. "That's my dream. That's what I'm praying for, maybe it will happen, maybe not, but dreams sometimes come true, you know.

Alfonzo is a beloved Met, having spent eight seasons with the club, including their World Series run in 2000. Now 36 years old, he hasn't played in the majors since 2006 as a member of the Blue Jays. Since then, he's had quite the road map, making stops with the Long Island Ducks, the Mexican League, the Venezuelan winter league and most recently this season, as a member of the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. Alfonzo has a .284/.357/.425 line and 1532 career hits in the majors, but hasn't had more than 87 at-bats in a season since 2005.

"I'm prepared for anything," Alfonzo said earlier this week. "Baseball is the one thing in my life that I know how to do. I don't expect to play every day, but I feel I can help anytime. I can say many things with my mouth, but I have to prove it."

That Alfonzo wants another shot is fine. Heck, I'll root for the guy. Bring him to Port St. Lucie and see what he can do. The Mets owe him that much. However, Kernan doesn't just give credence to the idea of a comeback, he outright endorses it, writing that Alfonzo could "offer some guidance and wisdom to a team that lacked baseball common sense" and that "he could toss some helpful advice David Wright's way."

What? That he shouldn't sign with the Giants? Listen, I'm often guilty of using my heart instead of my head, that's what fans do, but the notion that he can flip some sort of switch on this team is patently ridiculous.

- New Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos is reluctant to give up a pitcher of Roy Halladay's caliber, but realizes that the two parties will likely part ways after 2010, increasing the likelihood of a trade this winter.

- Speaking of the Blue Jays, they are discussing a trade that would send first baseman Lyle Overbay to the Diamondbacks in exchange for catcher Chris Snyder. It seems like an odd trade for the cost-conscious Blue Jays. Some of you may remember that I proposed the Mets as a potential fit for Snyder back in July. This was before the 28-year-old catcher underwent back surgery in September. I see a club like the Mets or Red Sox -- i.e., a franchise with the ability to absorb a riskier contract -- as a more likely destination for Snyder, but I've been wrong before.

- Brad Lidge will undergo surgery to remove some loose bodies from his right elbow on Wednesday, while Raul Ibanez will have surgery to repair a sports hernia on Monday.

- Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox, who are in need of a shortstop, were in on J.J. Hardy, but Milwaukee's demands -- Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard -- were too high. Futhermore, Boston didn't have a center field prospect to match Carlos Gomez.

- And finally, what the heck happened to Sammy Sosa?

afl.pngAs Aaron noted on Friday, Stephen Strasburg was scratched from Saturday's Rising Stars Game in the Arizona Fall League due to a strained muscle in his neck. Bummer. But for those of you who are jonesin' for some live baseball, many of baseball's top prospects will still be on display tonight on MLB Network at 8pm ET.

Tommy Mendoza (Angels) will replace Strasburg on the roster for the East team and oppose 2009 first-round pick Mike Minor (Braves), who starts for the West.

Rising Stars East lineup: CF Jose Tabata (Pirates), SS Starlin Castro (Cubs), 1B Brandon Snyder (Orioles), LF Grant Desme (Athletics), DH Brandon Allen (Diamondbacks), C Buster Posey (Giants), RF Domonic Brown (Phillies), 3B Joshua Bell (Orioles), 2B Jemile Weeks (Athletics), RHP Mendoza (Angels).

Rising Stars West lineup: CF Dustin Ackley (Mariners), RF Jordan Danks (White Sox), 3B Mike Moustakas (Royals), LF Chris Heisey (Reds), 1B Yonder Alonso (Reds), DH Darryl Jones (Cardinals), 2B Lance Zawadzki (Padres), C Jason Castro (Astros), SS Carlos Triunfel (Mariners), LHP Minor (Braves).

Full rosters can be seen here, although Mendoza replaced Strasburg, Bell replaced Josh Vitters (Cubs) and Brandon Erbe (Orioles) will replaced by a player to be announced.

Just a few quick items of note out of the AFL:

- Starlin Castro has been a sensation for the Mesa Solar Sox, leading the league in batting at .424 (28-for-66) with one home run, nine RBI, five stolen bases and 13 runs scored in 18 games. It's dangerous to look too much into AFL numbers, but the 19-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic is already drawing comparisons to Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter. He batted .299/.342/.392 with three home runs, 49 RBI, 28 stolen bases and 56 runs scored between High Class A Daytona and Double-A Tennessee this season. Look for him to rise on prospects lists over the winter.

- Grant Desme has been a monster for the Phoenix Desert Dogs, leading the league with 10 home runs in just 79 at-bats. How well is he swinging the bat? Chris Heisey (Reds), Brandon Laird (Yankees), Corey Brown (Athletics) and Russ Mitchell (Dodgers) are tied for second in the league with five home runs.

- While Strasburg has garnered much of the attention since being drafted by the Nationals in June, their other first-round pick Drew Storen (No. 10) might be ready to make the jump to the big club next season. After posting an impressive 1.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 49/8 K/BB ratio in 37 innings between three levels in the Nationals system in 2009, the 22-year-old right-hander has an 0.93 ERA, two saves and a 9/1 K/BB ratio 9 2/3 innings in the AFL. He's leaving little doubt to the notion that he will be the Nationals' closer before very long.

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